The main task that the emergency cabinet had to address this week was to define the achievement that the IDF is expected to make in the current war in southern Israel. Although in the last few days, we have heard a whole range of declarations from various individuals, beyond vague threats, no clear bottom line has been defined from which the IDF may derive an operational plan.
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This is no mere question of semantics. In past military operations in the Gaza Strip, the IDF was charged with the task of inflicting considerable damage on Hamas military capabilities, without taking over the entire Strip and while refraining from a lengthy period of stay there. This time, Israel must decide whether it is going to take a few steps further to the total uprooting of the Hamas military wing, and even to the extent of removing the organization's governmental control of the Gaza Strip, while clearly understanding the inherent challenges involved in this – from the numerous Israeli casualties to the loss of international legitimacy and the concern over becoming bogged down in the Gaza quagmire for an extended period. Even if such a move does succeed, Israel must decide what it wants to do on the day after all of this, who will be in control of the Gaza Strip and what form of relationship does it desire to have with that entity.
These decisions need to be made now for two main reasons. Firstly – the IDF has completed taking over control of the border fence area and is currently rapidly and successfully contending with any attempt to cross it (even if this involves a heavy price on occasions). Secondly – the IDF has completed the accumulation of a considerably large number of forces in the south to enable an extensive operation. In addition, the understanding that the window of opportunity afforded by both public opinion and the leadership of the international community to act will gradually grow smaller and eventually close requires a rapid shift to a ground offensive, the intensity and scope of which will be derived from the definition of the operation's objectives.
The need to modify plans
Senior officials stated this week that this war, which was forced on Israel, required modifications to the operational plans that had been prepared in advance. They will be based on the aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip carried out by the Israeli Air Force in recent days, with thousands of targets attacked and an unprecedented scale of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and individuals – including those who until now had benefited from immunity. Although in Israel there is serious concern that the situation in the Gaza Strip might develop into a humanitarian disaster due to the lack of electricity and water and the tremendous number of refugees, the operation is not expected to stop because of that.
The only thing that might divert the focused effort from the Gaza Strip is the potential eruption of war along Israel's northern border. This is precisely what all our adversaries in Lebanon and Syria are trying hard to do right now, led by Hezbollah and the Lebanese arm of Hamas. Having said that, Hezbollah does currently appear to be deterred – among others due to the explicit threats of US President Joe Biden and the forces he has dispatched to the region – and it is trying to maintain a balance in its actions along the border without this powder keg exploding and the situation morphing into a broader escalation. This is an extremely dangerous game: Both sides are on the highest state of alert with already taut nerves stretched to the limit, and any localized incident may boil over in no time at all into a much broader conflagration.
Given such a situation, the IDF will need to invest much greater efforts to avoid any errors, such as the false alarm yesterday evening that caused a large portion of the population to enter the safe room. The alerts concerning the infiltration of a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles, which turned out to be mistaken, strained our jangled nerves even further. The IDF Spokesperson did well by quickly responding to calm down the public, but that is not sufficient. Five days into the war would appear to be high time to hear a much clearer message being voiced by both the country's political and military leadership. This is important for broadcasting messages to the enemy and the rest of the world, but no less than that – for the management of expectations with the Israeli public, which is suffering from a sense of helplessness and relying on the civilian homefront for a series of issues – from locating injured and missing relatives, via psychological treatments and culminating in the provision of aid in the form of food and clothing.
Hezbollah still has to make up its mind
This week, various elements assessed that although neither side currently has an interest in launching a military campaign in the north (at least according to all the current indications), there is still a 50/50 chance of such an eventuality occurring. Hezbollah is deliberating between taking advantage of the current opportunity and its concern that Lebanon could be destroyed because of it, and in parallel – the US backing that Israel has received has a contradictory effect: on the one hand it clearly has a deterrent effect, while on the other hand, it also sends out a negative vibe, signaling that Israel is weak and in need of external help.
A wide-scale maneuver in the Gaza Strip might help to disperse the fogs of war in that respect. It will probably be accompanied by more intensive diversion efforts by the terrorist organizations along our northern border, but if it is especially aggressive, as it might well be – then it might attain a significant degree of deterrence across all the operational theaters. This will help to achieve two objectives at the same time – in relation to Hamas and the rest of the hostile actors in the region – but this depends on sharp and distinct Israeli determination, and the understanding that this time Israel will not dilly dally, but genuinely intends to go the bitter end.
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