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Home Special Coverage Middle East Peace Process

'There is a greater than 50% chance for an Israel-Saudi accord'

Israeli officials say that although there has been progress in the negotiations over a potential normalization agreement, difficulties still remain.

by  Ariel Kahana
Published on  09-24-2023 08:21
Last modified: 09-24-2023 13:12
Netanyahu has his sights set on peace with Saudi Arabia – but is it feasible?AFP/Ho/Spa

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Arab-China Summit in Riyadh, Dec. 9, 2022 | File photo: AFP/Ho/Spa

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I witnessed a painful sight outside the New York hotel where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli delegation stayed during the United Nations General Assembly. Two demonstrations were held, both by people who care tremendously about Israel.

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Both were the same size. Both had Israeli flags. Both even looked similar and chanted the same "democracy" slogan. Passersby were not even able to tell that these were supposedly opposing demonstrations.

Video: Netanyahu addresses the United Nations / Credit: Reuters

I approached the anti-Netanyahu demonstrators in an attempt to understand what and why they were protesting. It was clear to me that they believed the mountain of lies being fed to them by the protest propaganda, the latest one of which was that Netanyahu's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lacked all decorum. In reality, the prime minister was received with honor (as a member of the Israeli delegation I know because I was there.) The two had a heart-to-heart chat and the meeting ended with an embrace, a selfie, and well-wishes ahead of Rosh Hashanah.

But this small gesture cannot, unfortunately, stop the locomotive of the internal tear, as what remains of the protest movement draws many good people. Over absolutely nothing, the division within the Jewish people continues to grow. In Israel, we felt it throughout the previous year. With the beginning of the Jewish new year, the division also arrived in the US – along with Netanyahu – and exacerbated the tensions that already existed in the local Jewish community.

All this happened at a time when the historical developments that unite not only the majority of Israelis but also the majority of the Jewish people in the world. After all, the absolute majority want peace with Saudi Arabia, certainly if it does not involve problematic concessions to the Palestinians.

Historic development

Statements by US President Joe Biden, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Netanyahu – both in addresses at the UN and interviews with the American media – undoubtedly brought us closer to that. The first week of the Jewish new year has already put the Middle East in a different place than where we were at the end of the previous year.

True, the agreements still need to be completed, and it is also possible that the current round of negotiations will not result in success. But just as Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's visit to Israel in 1977 led to the peace agreement with Cairo almost a year later, the mutual declarations of MBS and Netanyahu are irreversible. A normalization agreement with Riyadh will be signed, if not sooner than later. And if the protest propaganda hadn't been sweeping the country, every person with common sense in Israel or the US would have rallied in favor of these moves and not against them.

Despite the euphoria that has taken over the discourse, Netanyahu's warning – that the window of opportunity for a normalization agreement is small – must be taken seriously. It is no coincidence that both a senior American official and a high-ranking Israeli official were briefed separately about the many difficulties that remain.

"Normalization is a very complicated issue. It is not just around the corner. We have made progress, but, typically, there are difficulties," the US official said.

The Israeli source official estimated that there was a slightly greater than 50% chance that the accord would be signed.

"There is an interest and desire of the three countries to reach an agreement. But there are obstacles and they are numerous," the official said.

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Contrary to what is reported in the media, it is not the Palestinian issue that is problematic. Netanyahu does not intend to hand over a grain of land and MBS does not ask for it either. So, in this context, from Israel's point of view, there is neither a political nor a diplomatic obstacle.

The biggest differences are between the Americans and the Saudis on the nuclear issue and regarding the defense alliance. "These are gaps that can be bridged," a political source closely familiar with the matter told Israel Hayom.

If that is indeed the case, we should hear of developments in a few months.

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