The prospect of peace with Saudi Arabia is the new fad, the ultimate prize that will come to fruition in the coming Jewish year. Something that one can imagine with starry eyes; we are willing to pay anything to get it done. This is, at least, the sentiment among media pundits, the newspaper editors, and the prime minister's orbit.
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But the fact of the matter is that in this reality, reconciliation between Israel and the biggest and most ancient Arab kingdom is almost as complex as resolving the judicial reform crisis. The more this matter is talked about and chewed upon, the harder it is to accomplish. The difficulties, which will be explained below, have not prevented the leaders from selling this to everyone, since marketing mirages are after all the bread and butter of being a politician, and Netanyahu in particular. So perhaps we cannot outright deny the possibility that the unexpected will happen, but it would be advisable to lower expectations.
Video: Biden speaks on America's commitment to Israel's security / Credit: Reuters
Many people have been laboring behind the scenes to seal a peace deal, a senior Israeli official says. The official noted that their hard work includes many trans-Atlantic flights. There is no doubt that if peace erupts, it will change the face of history and will once and for all cement Israel's existence in the region. The problem is that the longer this continues, the expectations grow, more players get involved and the price for a deal only goes up; That is why the difficulties keep mounting.
Squaring the nuclear circle
At first, there was talk about small-scale normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem. Then it was expanded to include "the end of the Israeli-Arab conflict." Now it has already morphed into a vision of "reconciliation between Israel and the Sunni world," namely, from Morocco to Indonesia. For all this to get done, there has to be an economic-defense-diplomatic alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia, with normalization being one of its byproducts.
However, deals between the US and Saudi Arabia pose a major challenge because they would involve a US pledge to defend Saudi Arabia against external attacks. In addition, the Saudis have made demands that could be problematic for Israel, chiefly among them the request to have nuclear enrichment for "civilian purposes." They have also been coveting sophisticated weapon systems such as the F-35 fighter jet.
But there is more. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his people also want a boost in trade relations between the countries, ending the criticism over the Khashoggi murder. The US cannot fulfill a lot of what the Saudis want. For starters, President Joe Biden can't censor the media. Second, it will be almost impossible to get a two-thirds majority in the Senate for a treaty that would have the US commit to defend Saudi Arabia from Iran, as Riyadh wants.
Under the US Constitution, the Senate has to approve a treaty by a two-thirds majority, meaning at least 67 senators. But in the current political climate, there is no enthusiasm for Middle East wars on both sides of the aisle. The rising political star in the GOP Vivek Ramaswamy reflects a consensus in the US. When asked about attacking Iran, he simply said that he would not send US troops to a war "we don't belong in." Even the hawk Ron DeSantis, in an interview I conducted several months ago, refused to commit to using force against Iran. If that is how those two have acted, just imagine what more dovish candidates espouse.
Moreover, peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a great political feat for Biden. Despite their love of Israel, it's hard to see how the Republicans help lift him from rock-bottom polls on the eve of an election. Donald Trump has been on the rise and he has been running neck and neck with the incumbent. Why should he give him a gift? Moreover, as has been reported in this paper, Trump has a score to settle with Netanyahu. So long as Netanyahu doesn't find a way to put the bygones behind them, the former president will have all the reasons to say that "the deal Biden has reached with Saudi Arabia is terrible and I will bring a better deal." This will have the effect of creating momentum against the deal in the GOP. This is not just my assessment; this is what senior Israeli officials believe. Netanyahu may claim that he will get 15 Republican senators to support the deal, but Trump has yet to speak on the matter. If that happens, it's hard to see how the deal gets passed.
Abbas slams the brakes
The US angle is only one of a few that are at play. Bin Salman also wants to secure support for the deal among his regional neighbors. That is why he has met with the Egyptian president, the Jordanian king, and the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. That is also why a Palestinian delegation traveled to Riyadh just recently, and why Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Ramallah to speak with Abbas.
But when Abbas picked up the phone, he provided Blinken with a laundry list of demands. They include a demand to reopen the US consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinians, which has been a red line for previous governments in Israel because this would essentially mean a de facto division of the capital. The Palestinians are certain to demand more territory in Judea and Samaria and to see a halt to IDF operations in Palestinian cities and a settlement moratorium. Because, after all, wouldn't it be just easy peasy to solve the Palestinian conflict as an afterthought of a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia that is a byproduct of a US-Saudi pact?
It might sound like a joke, but if Abbas rejects, then Jordan's weak king – who is wary of the Palestinian and Muslim Brotherhood-majority population, would also be affected. And if those two are against the deal, then bin Salman will have a very hard time finalizing it.
The security portfolio
But that is not where the obstacles end. Just recently, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant decided to get involved in this matter. He went on an unusual visit to New York to brief the UN secretary general on Hezbollah's threats, although the real crux of the visit was meetings with two senior Biden administration officials who deal with the Saudi portfolio.
Gallant, Brett McGurk, the US special envoy for the region, and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf agreed to create a trilateral dialogue between the two nations to discuss the various issues about a deal with Saudi Arabia: A Mossad-CIA axis as well as an axis connecting the US military and the IDF. Israeli security officials are convinced that if Saudi Arabia enriches uranium, Egypt and Turkey – if not additional countries – will soon follow suit. Thus, rather than having the deal usher in a new Middle East, we will get a nuclear arms race in the region. That is not a thrilling prospect and there are already voices inside the security establishment against the deal.
Not everyone is going to embrace a deal automatically, and this was evident when Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein said in a recent conference that "there are provisions that are much more sensitive [in the emerging agreement] from what has been told in the foreign media. Such a deal would have great importance, but there is great importance to cost and benefit, along with the need to preserve the current strategic situation in the Middle East…I don't think the provisions that deal with Judea and Samaria are those that worry me the most."
Edelstein has already shown over the past 12 months that he is no one's puppet, and there is also the hawkish stance he and many of his fellow Likud faction members hold on Judea and Samaria. And finally, there is Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, who has recently told Biden's people in Washington that "he would find it hard to support a deal that includes uranium enrichment on Saudi soil. Can there be a scenario in which Biden helps Netanyahu despite Lapid being against such a move? This is a rhetorical question. The bottom line is that a deal has a lot of obstacles within the US. The Palestinian linkage and the Saudi crown prince's decision to let his Arab brethren have their input pose a heavy burden. The Israeli security establishment, which has already proved its strength when it wholeheartedly leaned in to have the Israel-Lebanon maritime border deal finalized and helped torpedo the Trump peace plan, has yet to make its voice heard on the Saudi issue. Thus, the deal faces many challenges at home as well.
In the wake of the voices expressing concern, Netanyahu has told reporters, "I will never put Israel's security in jeopardy." In private conversations, he has been explaining that any deal would have provisions to ensure the US monitors the Saudi nuclear program. But not everyone thinks these answers fully address the worries.
Biden is no Trump
With all that in mind, one has to also look at the situation inside Washington. Or perhaps that should be the first thing we should look at. It is no coincidence that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who is Biden's point man on the Saudi normalization issue, said in recent days that no breakthrough was expected in the near term.
The reason is that Biden, despite sending his people to the region to speak with players and to examine their requests, and iron out various disagreements, has yet to decide to go all in for normalization. In his three years as president so far, unlike Trump, he has not shown many daring moves.
As a very seasoned politician, he has been subscribing to only measured steps. He has been maneuvering between various pressure points in search of compromise. It's hard to see how he makes a dramatic and bold break toward some big move.
Historical shifts – especially in this region – don't happen under the limelight, if the past is prologue; they happen behind closed doors. This includes the peace treaty with Egypt, the Oslo peace process, and the Abraham Accords. In all three instances, secret backchannel communications preceded the public declarations. In the current situation, there is a lot of talk but very little results to show for.
Paying dearly
So of course, despite all the challenges, and in the face of all the obstacles, we could eventually wake up some two or three weeks from today to find out that a dramatic breakthrough had been announced. I wish. The only problem is that by the time it arrives, if it arrives, Israel will have already paid dearly so that it would avoid friction with the US.
The scope of terrorism speaks for itself. In Jenin, terrorist hotbeds are getting bigger and look a lot like what we saw during the early 2000s. The decision not to go all out against them but rather to tread lightly has backfired big time. The administrative detentions used against right-wing activists are a result of pressure from Washington, as a means of showing Biden that Israel was "cracking down on Jewish terrorism." New construction permits for settlement communities will not be issued through 2023.
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What's worse is that despite there being a de facto deal between Iran and the US, which allows Tehran to enrich uranium to 60% purity, Netanyahu has been practically silent on the issue – and this is the same person who locked horns with Barack Obama over the 2015 deal. Or as the previous Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu said," The silence on the part of the prime minister in the face of the existential threat from a nuclear Iran is nothing short of mind-boggling."
