The likelihood of another Israel-Lebanon war is as high as ever, given the increased number of incidents on the northern border in recent months, not to mention the continued internal crisis in Israel over the judicial reform.
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Only this time, officials estimate that the conflict will not be limited to one arena alone, with the possibility of flare-ups in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as more distant threats posed by Iran and its proxies in the region.
In order to understand Israel's restrained response to recent provocations by Hezbollah – for which it was criticized – one needs to familiarize oneself with the security forces' scenario for a potential war with Lebanon and its effects on civilian life.
Video: Hezbollah showcases capabilities in drill simulating kidnapping of IDF troops / Twitter
Besides the obvious damage to homes and thousands of casualties, there is also concern about the ability of the state to function, namely in terms of electricity, communication, energy, food supply chain, and the mass absence from work of civilians in case of war.
According to the scenario, Israel will need to deal with an unprecedented number of rockets launched into its territory daily – with 6,000 missiles in the first days of the war and between 1,500-2,000 onward.
The numbers are astronomical, especially compared to the 294 rockets launched into Israel on average daily during the IDF's Operation Shield and Arrow in the spring.
The potential rocket salvo and the campaign led by Hezbollah will lead to the death of approximately 500 civilians (this does not include soldiers) and the injury of thousands.
Yet despite these alarming numbers, what worries security officials more is the precision capability that Israel's enemies are developing. Sources point out that one of the most important lessons for Israel from the ongoing war in Ukraine is the effectiveness of the Iranian drones.
The scenario does not rule out either the possibility of Hezbollah – as well as Iran or its other proxies – hitting vital Israeli infrastructure, such as power plants, to paralyze the country and leave it without electricity for hours, if not days.
Security officials say the challenge – and the plan – is to increase security in these strategic locations, among other things, by equipping them with missile defense systems.
An equally significant challenge, the scenario says, will be the domestic arena, with the possibility of the security forces needing to deal with several internal disturbances at the same time.
The IDF has already established 16 reserve battalions in charge of freeing routes for the movement of troops and dealing with disruptions within the country.
In terms of transportation, entry to ports in Israel might be sealed off, as well as foreign flights discontinued and roads blocked.
Another concern is the possible no-show to work by members of minorities whose labor is essential, such as truck drivers. Such a development would disrupt the supply chain in Israel, with the potential to cause great damage.
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The security echelon also does not rule out the possibility of thousands of fire outbreaks, dozens of hazardous material incidents, and several waves of cyber attacks.
As the scenario only deals with civilian life, it does not go into details about Hezbollah's plans to "conquer the Galilee" and in practice, invade Israel and occupy its northern territories.
Given the above-mentioned, one can perhaps understand the IDF's reluctance to be dragged into a war with Hezbollah and instead opt for moderate reactions to its provocations.
