The global arms race does not pass over the Middle East. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and even Egypt seek new military technology to strengthen their capabilities. Israel is preparing itself for new threats, such as the hypersonic missile Iran claims it is developing, as well for technology almost already considered "old" – UAVs and precision-guided missiles.
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Earlier this month, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems presented its answer to the hypersonic missiles Iran claims it is developing. Photos of the supposed missile were published in Tehran. Yet, people in Israel do not believe Iran already possesses this technology, which does not prevent it from arming itself accordingly.
Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia demands the US' commitment to arms deals, its authorization to develop a civilian nuclear program, and its security guarantees against Iran. Iran's exhibit of its development of missiles and UAVs that are already being tested in Ukraine, along with Saudi Arabia's demands, is causing Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to equip themselves as well in what appears to be an arms race well underway. Its stars are Iran and Israel, but their surrounding states are also preparing themselves for the worst.
Iran is arming the region
Brigadier General (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the research division in the IDF Military Intelligence Division and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), said to Israel Hayom that "a significant arms race is taking place in the region, and the prominent state in this race is Iran, which is manufacturing weapons on its own using technology it has received from foreign sources. The Iranians are making a significant effort to equip themselves with advanced missiles – and therefore, the variety of missiles they are developing is wide. Even Russia is interested in procuring these missiles. The Iranians have shown their ability to manufacture cruise missiles and have improved their accuracy over time – this is a threat that we cannot take lightly."
Iran's arming of itself projects itself all the way to Hezbollah in the north, which possesses tens of thousands of Iranian missiles and is now attempting to turn them into precision-guided missiles. The military activity in Syria that foreign sources attribute to Israel is meant to prevent this very arming attempt, which according to Kuperwasser, is supposed to "greatly disturb Israel." The researcher notes that alongside the Iranian arms race (and we have not yet said a word about nuclear weapons), even countries that are considered pragmatic are operating in this manner: "Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Qatar are conducting accelerated arming efforts that are not directed at us, but considering the stability's horizon and possible change in the region, it is possible that Israel will show concern even in a case such as this."
Even Doctor Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) near Tel Aviv University, warns us about the intensification happening around us: "Even today, Saudi Arabia possesses advanced reconnaissance planes, and it demands more. These tribes may fight amongst themselves, but what ultimately unites them is their hatred towards Israel."
Doctor Kalisky divides arming efforts into several layers: conventional, semi-conventional, and nonconventional (nuclear). "The conventional arms race does, in fact, stem from what is happening between Russia and Ukraine. Countries are seeing that a war can be won with simple and relatively cheap weapons. The paradigm has changed – no more tank convoys, but rather more UAVs and drones that can stop entire convoys," explains Doctor Kalisky. "This is also an arms race regarding missiles, which are relatively simple to operate. Airports and trained pilots are unnecessary; the missiles are straightforward to operate and only require a small team of people."
The Hypersonic Threat
Doctor Kalisky says regarding the hypersonic missiles: "Anyone who watches the battlefield in Ukraine sees that these missiles work and that their potential to cause destruction and fear is great. This missile can travel from Iran to Israel in about 3-4 minutes. This is terrifying." Today, only Russia and China definitely possess missiles such as these, and there are contrasting opinions on whether Iran has them as well.
Kuperwasser: "Regarding the hypersonic missiles – the US Congress is trying to impose international limitations or even a treaty on them, but in the meantime, certain countries continue to pursue the development of these missiles, such as Russia, China, and the United States. Regarding Iran, according to the pictures we have seen until now, it seems that the Iranians do not yet have hypersonic missiles, but we must always be worried and not mock them. Even if it is not real, our enemy has capabilities. Iran is a missile superpower, and even if the missiles do not work now, we need to take this threat seriously."
The answer to the UAVs
In Israel, the security industries do sit by idly. Israel's innovations place Israel at the forefront of technology, and security industries find their way to countries worldwide, as was seen just this week at the Paris Air Show. In a conversation with Ariel Caro, senior vice president of marketing and business development at Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, he describes this arms race from an economic perspective. "Our industries already have the solutions to the wide variety of threats the world is beginning to face. One example is the Multi-Layered, Integrated Multi-Domain Air and Missile Defense Array – from the UAV level the entire world is waking up to after Ukraine, to the Iron Dome and the adaptation of anti-drone laser weapons, which Israel is leading globally."
Even the "David's Sling" system, used in Operation Shield and Arrow, intrigues the world. Caro explains: "Israel is taking advantage of its technological advantage. When you develop defense systems, you do not develop them only for the current threats you face; you must be several steps ahead of the next threat. We are looking ten years into the future and seek to provide solutions for Israel and export them before we encounter the threat."
Arming or deterrence?
Regarding the question of Israeli deterrence of Hezbollah, Kuperwasser says: "At this time, Hezbollah is deterred from carrying out an all-out military attack, but is it deterred from taking limited measures such as allowing the Palestinians to continue arming themselves? Less so. We are paying the price for the hesitation we have shown in the Israel-Lebanon gas deal. This was a move that strengthened Hezbollah's sense of power.
"We need to create deterrence and not attack Lebanon warehouse by warehouse; there is no end to this. We must occasionally demonstrate our capabilities – launching satellites into space, etc. However, the chances of us being dragged into a campaign are not great because our enemies know what we are capable of; Nasrallah is hiding in a bunker to this day.
"Hezbollah has between 120 and 150 thousand missiles, many precision-guided. They have great and dangerous potential. Lebanon is an Iranian proxy that will be ready for action whenever told to be. In contrast, Syria does not pose a significant threat because it is divided and has an outdated army."
Regarding the knowledge of missiles in the Gaza Strip that is also worming its way into Samaria, Doctor Kalisky says that "the missile knowledge in the Gaza Strip is Iranian that made its way there via smuggling and experts, and the missiles are manufactured using lathes. We will likely see steep-trajectory fire towards Afula and other communities in the north. These things have happened in the past. In the 1970s, Katyusha rockets were launched toward Petach Tiqwa from the Jordan Valley, and one person was killed. Our control of Judea and Samaria leads us to the missile's designers and manufacturers, and at the moment is thwarting this threat."
One of the prominent fields of the arms race is the UAV. The Iranians are developing many kinds of UAVs which Russia procures for its war with Ukraine. According to Kuperwasser, "the Iranians have already proved their capabilities in this field in the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities in 2019. We have a good solution to this threat – developing anti-drone laser weapons and advanced interception methods.
"A real scenario"
According to Caro, Israel's innovations are in high demand by European countries, who see the battlefield right next to their homes: "The Russia-Ukraine war made it clear to them that a scenario of war on European soil is real, and that they are lacking in the operational sense. They need a technological advantage, which Israel has, and there is a significant increase in demand.
"Rafael Advanced Defense Systems has specialized in precise and high-quality electro-optic oriented arming for many years. Our innovations are required also because of the large distances – in Europe, there is demand for Spike missiles and other similar systems, and the Paris Air Show is a platform for exposing these capabilities to many clients."
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