Operation Shield and Arrow was an extremely impressive success from a tactical military point of view. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was dealt a severe drubbing, its senior commanders were taken out, its assets damaged and Israel was not made to pay any diplomatic price in return for the eventual cease-fire. The curtain-raiser to the operation was a precision strike involving a focused targeting effort to eliminate three senior PIJ figures, following a decision not to take immediate 'hot-blooded' action but to wait and then exact a much more painful price, based on precision intelligence information. The ability to successfully target an additional three senior PIJ terrorists later on during the operation was an even more impressive achievement, especially as once they realize they are on the 'wanted list' they evidently tend to go to ground.
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This is down to the remarkable professionalism of the IDF, the Israel Security Agency, better known as Shin Bet and IDF Military Intelligence. Israel also demonstrated tremendous resilience in terms of its defensive capabilities, and the Israeli civilian population displayed notable cohesion throughout the entire period of hostilities. In view of the extremely limited objectives of the operation defined by the defense establishment, this was undoubtedly a great military success. The fire has ceased and peace and quiet have returned, at least temporarily. Though the PIJ's image might have been enhanced among all the various organizations violently opposed to Israel, as is the case with anybody to decides to take up arms against the Jewish state, and the PIJ did succeed in disrupting the life of numerous Israelis, these "achievements" were effectively canceled out by the heavy blows it suffered.
Having said that, nobody should be under any illusions. For years now, the State of Israel has been operating without any clear strategy and vision in relation to the Palestinian theater – in view of the familiar challenges and those waiting on the horizon. It is also important to explain to the public, without mincing words, that in all honesty, this limited round of violence that has just ended will not be the last one. The Gaza issue is far from being solved, Hamas continues to bolster its arsenal, and next time we might well have to confront them rather than their smaller sister organization so that the calm that we have obtained is clearly only a temporary one. During this operation, Israel fought against the weaker terrorist organization among the members of the 'Palestinian resistance front', and Hamas incurred no damage by sitting on the fence, on the contrary, it actually gained in strength as a result of this. In practice, on the strategic level, Operation Shield and Arrow has changed absolutely nothing.
Israel continues to operate without any master plan relating to the Palestinian theater as it refrains from making any clear decision as to where it is headed. One option is to decide that we seek separation from the Palestinian entity. In this case, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah, despite their numerous drawbacks, are clearly a much preferable option to Hamas (an organization with whom there is absolutely no hope of ever engaging in any diplomatic peace process). On the other hand, another option, which on occasions the policymakers in Israel appear to be proponents of, is that of sitting idly by. This approach involves Israel's continued role as a spectator watching from the sidelines the complete dismantling of the PA (whose great weakness was clearly demonstrated in the current operation as it proved to be completely irrelevant) along with de-facto recognition of Hamas as the sovereign power in the Gaza Strip. Selection of the second option leads to that uneasy feeling among large parts of the Israeli public after each round of violence in the Gaza Strip – if Hamas is a partner, then there is only a limited extent of damage that it can be made to incur, and the desire to preserve it as some form of "go-to" entity to address issues is clear.
The decision not to embroil Hamas in this last round of violence was the correct decision, both tactically and strategically. On the tactical level – Israel focused its opening strike on the PIJ and by doing so it succeeded in attaining its objective. Having Hamas enter the fray would only have considerably extended the fighting for no reason, and without the advantage of taking the initiative, the outcome of the whole effort would most probably have been extremely disappointing. On the strategic level – if Israel seeks to effect a genuine, fundamental change in the Palestinian theater, then it is necessary to plan another operation with a completely different objective, and not to expand a limited operation in the middle of an ongoing military campaign, as a result of being drawn in following either tactical achievements or failures. This could well lead to a dangerous tailspin that could easily get out of control.
The tension is expected to accompany us during the days ahead too, and especially this Thursday, Jerusalem Day. The good news is that the operation has released some of the air out of the balloon on the other side, and there doesn't appear to be a strong desire there for any further destruction or additional targeting of its leaders. On the other hand, Jerusalem Day does tend to serve as one of the most volatile and incendiary catalysts in the Middle East – the religious Palestinian narrative, Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and the ensuing option of all Israel's enemy theaters joining forces. The policymakers in Israel are charged with the heavy responsibility of acting prudently and with great sensitivity on and around this special day.
It is imperative to prevent any provocations in those locations that are known to be volatile, to avoid, as far as possible, any problematic, inflammatory pictures emerging from the Temple Mount, to bolster the police force, and to carefully coordinate the events with the Jordanian-appointed Waqf (responsible for administration of the Muslim holy sites on the Temple Mount). It's not that we cannot deal with any renewed escalation or a multi-theater incident, but we really have no interest in doing so. Above all – Israel must take the initiative and the pro-active approach and shift it from the tactical military level to the strategic diplomatic plane, so that it will be able to dictate its own fate, from a position of strength rather than merely treading water and being sucked in after a string of random incidents.
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