The recent agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seven years after ties between Riyadh and Tehran were severed, is bad news whichever way you look at it: it strengthens Iran, weakens the alliance in opposition to Tehran, expands China's regional influence at the expense of the US, and essentially makes any chance of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia that much more a distant possibility.
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This is a highly significant achievement for the Iranians, as to some extent it loosens the regional noose that Israel has been aspiring to tighten around their necks. It also conveys a message that they should be able to continue with their policy of engaging in terrorism – on the domestic front against all protest and opposition and abroad via their proxies and by supplying drones to Russia's war against Ukraine – without being made to pay any price for this. These are dangerous messages, that might significantly bolster the self-confidence of the ayatollah regime, especially with the current growing concern that Iran might decide to make a dash for the bomb in the near future.
The Saudis have been drawn into this agreement as a result of the ongoing crisis in their relations with Washington. What began in September 2019, in the absence of US defense against the Iranian drone attack on the oil refinery installations of Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco, developed into a profound crisis of mistrust between the two states, which then led the Iranians to look for defensive support (or at least an insurance policy) in areas that until now had been extremely hostile to them.
Of course, this does not mean that Saudi Arabia and Iran will now be "BFF", and the rivalry between the Sunna and the Shia will remain unchanged, but Riyadh can now significantly reduce the threat to it – at least in the foreseeable future – and consequently, it will be able to make secondary gains too, such as extending the truce in Yemen.
Another secondary winner here is China, which brokered the agreement, and will now be able to benefit from an extended foothold in the region, at the expense of the Americans. China's interests here are mainly economic, but the growing struggle between Beijing and Washington will now be felt more intensely in the Middle East too. This is bad news for the moderates, mainly Israel, for whom Washington's power in the region is a key component of their stability and security.
Israel's interests have suffered a blow in two additional, immediate contexts: the first one – the chance to upgrade the relations with Saudi Arabia and possibly turn this into full normalization. Secondly – the intention of establishing a regional defensive alliance to serve as a counterweight against Tehran. Though in making this move, Saudi Arabia might not have actually opted to cross over to the Iranian side, it has moved further away from the Israeli-US side, and it may well try to stir up the situation between the sides and to maximize its gains on both fronts.
The risk of a political flare-up
Israel was clearly aware of the talks between Tehran and Riyadh and the question is what it did to try and stop them. The Israeli government might well be shouting "Iran" at the top of its lungs, but for the moment it has no tangible results to show for all this. The Western world finds it difficult to work together with a government perceived to be undermining the pillars of its own democracy and it is looking on at the current internal strife in Israel with a mixture of concern and amazement. Last week's visit of the US Secretary of Defense provided us with clear evidence of this. While Lloyd Austin heard the Israeli leadership talk about Iran, his reply focused on the need for democracy and a stable judiciary.
The political chaos in Israel has not escaped the attention of the Iranians and their proxies either. This gives rise to greater cause for concern over a potential miscalculation that might lead one of them to attempt to engage in military action. Above all, this should be a major concern for the Israeli government, but also for the citizens of Israel, as the security forces themselves are now being forced to deal with the implications of the judicial revolution, diverting much of their attention from where it really should be: dealing with the need to provide a response to the ongoing security challenges.
The focus of attention in recent days has been the Israel Air Force (IAF) as a result of the dismissal and subsequent reinstatement to reserve service, of the outspoken pilot Colonel (res.) Gilad Peled. Peled was discharged from active reserve service, following claims that he had coordinated action on the part of his fellow IAF reservists to refuse to serve, and this decision was then reversed, allegedly as the claims against him had been unfounded. IAF Commander, Major General Tomer Bar, certainly adopted the correct approach when he elected to swallow his pride and admit the error, but we would all sincerely hope that when it comes to other matters – of more critical importance to national security – that the IAF checks things out more thoroughly before making any decisions.
Having said that, Peled's reinstatement is still a far cry from calming down the current volatile situation. If the legislation is passed in its proposed format – then the IAF might have to face the wholesale departure of its pilots, together with a parallel move in other IDF units too, and maybe across the other security forces too. And when the Israel Police is also embroiled in a spiraling free-fall due to the unparalleled irresponsible acts of the minister in charge of it – Israel's security might well be facing an unprecedented state of danger, and this time not because of any external enemy – but rather a domestic one.
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