Now that the final curtain has come down on the 2022 World Cup, at FIFA the countdown to the next tournament scheduled for summer 2026 is already underway. Five years ago, the decision was made that the 2026 World Cup would take place for the first time in three different countries – the US, Mexico and Canada – and for the first time 48 national teams would take part in it.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
FIFA President Gianni Infantino is the man responsible for increasing the size of the tournament by 50%, and the motives for this are crystal clear: increasing the revenues of the international football association and bolstering his own political status as head of the organization. More national teams mean more votes in the upcoming FIFA presidential elections.
But there is one issue that Infantino and his board of advisers have not addressed: how exactly is this monster-sized World Cup tournament going to work? Until very recently the idea was to divide up the 48 national teams into 16 groups with only three teams in each one. The top two teams in each group will then qualify and advance to the knockout stage. According to this method, there will be 80 games (instead of 64 under the current system), and the tournament, as it is now, will last for four weeks.
Apart from the fact that there will be 16 teams that will play only two matches before returning home, at first glance it doesn't appear to be such a bad solution. But the wise men of FIFA have not taken into account the fact that in a 3-team group, in each round there will always be one national team not playing a match, which will inevitably lead to a situation in which the two teams competing in the last group stage match will know precisely what outcome suits them in order to advance – and to send the third team home.
The infamous "Disgrace of Gijón" match held in Spain during the 1982 World Cup is still fresh in the memories of many football fans. West Germany and Austria colluded to secure a 1:0 win for the Germans, leading to the elimination of Algeria from the tournament, who had already finished their group stage matches at that point.
This incident led to a change being introduced in 1986, and the third and final group stage round would now be held with both matches taking place simultaneously to prevent similar acts of non-sporting behavior.
This welcome change has led to intensely dramatic scenes unfolding over the years, such as what happened now in Qatar in Group E, when the group table standings were repeatedly turned on their head before it was finally decided that Japan and Spain would proceed to the Final 16, while Germany and Costa Rica were eliminated.
104 games in five weeks
The most amazing fact is that FIFA has not commented on this issue, though a fair number of commentators have written about it. Former Arsenal manager and FIFA's Chief of Global Football Development, Arsene Wenger, referred to this only last weekend.
He did not rule out the original idea of the 16 three-team group format but added that an additional two alternatives are currently being examined. One idea is to have 12 four-team groups, with the first and second-place teams qualifying automatically for the knockout stage, while the eight best third-place finishers would also advance to the Final 16 stage.
The second idea is slightly more complicated: the 48 national teams competing in the World Cup will be divided into two separate tournaments. Each 24-team tournament will comprise six groups of four teams.
In each tournament, the six group winners will advance to the knockout stage along with the two best second-place teams. Following the quarterfinals and semifinals in each individual tournament, the last four teams (the two winners of the semifinal matches in each tournament) will then compete for the title based on the "Final Four" system.
In both of these proposed formats, the tournament would involve 104 soccer matches, lasting for five weeks, and this is where the genuine problem lies. The football clubs – who pay the players' wages – will clearly be adamantly opposed to this, and we should not forget the fans and the media too, for whom this would be an unprecedented, exorbitantly expensive and fatiguing event.
But that's not all: since the World Cup shifted from a format of 24 to 32 national teams, the need for internal rating of the best second-place teams in each group has been abandoned.
A shift to a 48-team competition would take us back to this most unhealthy state of affairs, as then the decision as to who advances would be based on goal difference, and there are always differences between the various groups in terms of the quality of the national teams. Once again, those teams playing last in the group stage schedule will know precisely what result they need to progress.
Wenger said that a decision on the competition format will be made only next year, but it is already clear that the move to a 48-team World Cup is extremely problematic, and will face considerable, severe criticism.
All the way to New York
In the meantime, FIFA has already decided on the distribution of tickets for the next World Cup according to continents. Europe will send 16 teams (instead of 13); South America will send six teams, with the option of one more in a playoff (instead of 4+1); Africa will be represented by nine teams with the option of an additional one (instead of five); and Asia will be able to send eight teams with the option of an additional team too (instead of 4+1). The three host nations will of course qualify automatically.
An additional three national teams will qualify from North America and Central America with the option of two teams qualifying from the playoff, while Oceania will have one guaranteed place and an additional team to qualify from the playoff. Six teams will take part in the playoff tournament (from all the continents apart from Europe), and the top two sides will complete the puzzle of the 48 participating nations.
The final dates of the World Cup will be determined only after the format has been decided, in summer 2023. The host cities of the various matches and the division between the host countries have already been decided. There are to be 11 in the USA, three in Mexico and two in Canada.
The venue for the final has yet to be published, but it appears to be patently clear that this will take place at the MetLife Stadium in New York – the home of New York's two famous football teams, the New York Giants and the New York Jets.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
