At the end of September, Shervin Hajipour sat down in front of Twitter and started copying. One Tweet after another, the Iranian singer wrote down the reasons why – and the goals for which – Iranians took to the streets in the days after the killing of Mahsa Amini, in what became known as the "Hijab Protest."
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
"Baraye," the song he wrote which is quoted above, became a hit, and within two days had 40 million views on his Instagram page and one hundred thousand submissions to the Grammy. The protest, which in a short time went beyond dress code issues, had an anthem, and also a symbol, but almost two months after it began, observers from the side saw that it had lost momentum and froze on its spot, while at the same time it is also far from disappearing.
In order to understand the current protest in the Islamic Republic, in what ways it is different, and or similar, to its predecessors, and mainly what its perspectives are, we asked to speak with three people who study and breathe the air of Iran: Dr. Tamar Elam Gindin, an expert on Iran, from the Ezri Center at the University of Haifa and director of an online school for studying the Persian language and Iran (and other topics, to quote Dr. Elam Gindin); Dr. Ori Goldberg, an expert on the study of modern Iran and revolutionary movements in the Shiite world, from the Reichman University (IDC); and Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran, from the Institute for National Security Studies and the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Q: The Iranian protest has been going on for seven weeks, and there is a feeling that even though it has not been crushed, it is not taking off either.
Dr. Zimmt: "I totally agree. This is an event that has not been seen since 1978-1979. I'm not talking about the number of protesters, but about a combination of a protest lasting six weeks without a break and with a very clear demand to overthrow the regime. Even in 2009, the protest lasted a long time, but there were waves, and this time it is going on and on. The demands are revolutionary and non-explicit, such as holding re-elections because of fraud, as occurred with the protest led by Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, leaders of the Green Protest and who were members of the Reformist opposition, but still part of the regime. Today's protest is much more anti-establishment.
"At the same time, three critical indicators help us understand where we are standing and in which directions matters are developing. The first measure is quantitative. There were more protesters in a demonstration in Berlin than in all demonstrations in all provinces in Iran combined. There were even more people at the funerals in Shiraz [following the massacre at the Shah Chara Mosque], than at the demonstrations. So, people in Berlin are not afraid of going out, and neither were they in Shiraz because the funerals were organized by the regime. But ultimately there is nothing to be done: in order for a revolution to be successful, people have to take the risk. According to data issued by the regime, up to 200,000 demonstrators have participated in demonstrations to date. This is not an insignificant number, especially when considering how many are supporting them from behind, but it is still not a number that can bring about a change at present times."
According to Dr. Zimmt, the second indicator is the identity of the protesters, and here – once again according to the regime's data – 90 percent of protesters are young and the foci of protest are mainly in universities." Young people are important, but in order to turn the protest into something more significant, a broader coalition is required. It's not just that these are young women and men from the educated class. Ethnic minorities, such as Kurds and Baluch, as well as many who are not from the educated class, as in the south of Tehran, are participating in the protest. They were also several professional fighters that tried to piggyback on the protest, as we have also seen in recent years, such as the workers at the petrochemical and crude oil industries, or the bazaar merchants, but the protest is not taking hold and has not expanded. The third indicator is the point where the regime stands. We do not see the rifts and the divisions in the political elite nor in the forces of oppression."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "It is true that there are mainly young people, but in terms of gender, ethnic groups, geographic distribution, and socioeconomic status – there is more diversity in comparison to previous protests. We hear about older people mainly in the context of helping the protesters (for example, through treating protesters who are afraid to go to the hospital), but there are also parents and family members of victims who speak to the media, upload videos [to social media], and the like.
"Furthermore, during the previous protests, many said that the young people did not go out because their parents were worried about them. I believe that many adults don't go out for the same reason that we don't go out – we do not have that level of enthusiasm. There is a reason that conscription is at age 18; at that age, people fight for their group of belonging without giving it a second thought."
Dr. Goldberg: "We are entering territory that, if it reminds us of anything, is 1978-1979. This is the waiting territory for both sides. For an Iranian revolution to be ignited in the full sense of the word – and to be the greatest romantic I can be – there must be a magical moment, an alchemical effect. Because successful Iranian revolutions – and Iran has a tradition of successful grassroots revolutions – are revolutions that soar, that are not exactly any of the sector-dependent factors; social class, age or interests that brought people to the streets to demand change. There is some moment when it takes hold. And this moment has not occurred yet."
Q: What, for example, could this other magical thing be?
Dr. Elam Gindin: "I really like the tobacco protest of 1891. The government made many mistakes, and one of them was when it sold the entire tobacco market to the British. Then a cleric issued a religious ruling that tobacco that has passed through foreign hands is impure. All of Iran stopped smoking within a week, although rumors say that it happened within a day."
Dr. Goldberg: "And all of Iran really smoked!"
Dr. Elam Gindin: "It was possible to see that the entire nation was involved in all the revolutions, from 1891 to 1979 – both the intellectuals and the working class. The bazaar was very, very important, and it was always under the leadership of the clergy. What happened here is that the Islamic Republic, unintentionally, significantly harmed the status of the clergy. There is no clergyman for them to follow. On the contrary, people are chasing clergymen in the streets and shouting at them 'Bi Sharaf! Bi Sharaf!' (without respect)".
Dr. Goldberg: "Perhaps this is another way of saying what I mentioned before: this revolution still needs a fundamental narrative, because the goal is not just about overthrowing the regime. The cry for battle of the 'Arab Spring' was 'The People Want the Fall of the Regime'. Even if the Iranian people want the Islamic republic to fall – the Iranian revolution, at least historically, presents a connection to morality."
"This is not Eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War, where there were two clearcut options: the one falls and the other replaces it. Here is a case of the ability to formulate an organic tale of change that develops from within society. This has not happened yet. I agree with what Raz says about the age of the majority of participants in the protest. There has to be another dimension. The point is, and this is something that Tamar said: there are no clerics leading this narrative, who are able to speak about it in the language of eternity. This narrative is being built, and right now both sides are waiting to see who will get closer to the moment when the magic takes hold."
A Nuclear Conspiracy?
In a way, this protest has already had one charismatic moment: the death of Mahsa Amini. Reminder: the young Kurdish woman from the city of Saqez who was arrested in mid-September by the modesty guards, because a few hairs were sticking out from under her head covering. The healthy young woman was brought to the police station and taken out of there to the hospital suffering from serious injuries. A short time later she breathed her last breath.
The reason for her arrest and the circumstances of her death were the spark that ignited the outrage and also led Iranian women to respond with great prominence and in protest to take off their hijabs and cut their hair. This was the first time that schoolgirls also took an active part in the protest. In one case, several female students were photographed without their head covering, giving the middle finger to Khamenei's portrait, and in several other cases, they chased away government representatives who came to speak to them by calling out derogatory remarks.
"The death of Mahsa Amini and the conflict of the hijab were both a trigger and a symbol," says Dr. Zimmt, "because the hijab is not an issue for the young leftists in northern Tehran. So why did the issue catch on so well? Because a conservative and religious 50-year-old Iranian woman, who herself is not bothered by the hijab, knows that her daughter thinks a little differently, that she will go out with a few hairs sticking out, and the modesty guards will catch her."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "Besides the fact that taking off the hijab is one of the most long-standing expressions of protest, young women in Tehran have been walking around with a few hairs sticking out for many years. The hijab has become something that is intended more to cover up their ass than to be a head covering. Mahsa Amini was no different from an average Tehrani woman in what she did. She didn't wave the hijab in the air, she didn't take it off. She was probably wearing the hijab with just a few hairs sticking out and it was her bad luck – as well as the Islamic Republic's bad luck – that she was the one who was actually arrested.
"I have a conspiracy theory that I invented: they had to make progress in the nuclear agreement and wanted to show some kind of compromise (in the political area), so they needed to show the people that they are not pushovers – they had to enforce the laws with greater strength. This is not based on anything, other than my wild imagination. In any case, the fact that she died even though she did not do anything forbidden, except for letting a few strands of hair stick out of her hijab, which is normal, made young people now understand that: even if I do everything as I should, I have no personal security, so what is the difference if I do as I should, or not?"
Q: In other words, Mahsa was a coincidental victim, but the wrong victim.
Dr. Goldberg: "This coincidence testifies to the logic that drives the method. The fact that she is a coincidental victim means that what happened to her can happen to any one of us, and it also means that this situation is bigger than just a political dispute. This is an outburst resulting in part from the coincidence and the way the personality of Mahsa Amini was perceived, but the outcry is to topple the Islamic Republic. However, that is not enough. It is not enough to say 'the regime must fall.' There should not be a detailed ideological vision, but – and this is very significant in Iran – there must be some kind of alternative that is Iranian."
Dr. Zimmt: "And this, in my opinion, is extremely difficult to achieve without leadership. In the beginning, there is an advantage in the fact that it does not exist: it is much more difficult to take control of such a protest, but as long as the message is against something, it works. In the end, after a certain period of time, someone has to present an alternative, and at least as important – to start coordinating matters."
Q: On the other hand, doesn't the emergence of the leadership give rise to a greater danger of oppression? The leaders of this protest can be arrested, apart from which where would such a leader come from? From within the system?
Dr. Elam Gindin: "My dream is to have someone like Gorbachev ...
Who actually did not want to disperse the USSR.
Dr. Elam Gindin: "True, but that's what happened in the end."
Dr. Zimmt: "I don't think such a person can come from within the system as it is today. There were times when he could have come from within. The slogans we see – 'conservatives, reformists, it's over for all of you' – reflect a perception that has gained strength in recent years: this system can no longer repair itself from the inside. From where can it succeed? Unfortunately, it has to come from Evin Prison, because the leaders of the civil society are there."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "And that's in the best possible case, because many leaders are in exile."
Dr. Zimmt: "The problem is that substitute centers of power that we got used to during the revolutions do not exist anymore. The religious establishment is an almost tragic story: they took the religious establishment, which was the most significant and strongest factor, and turned the clergy from being the representatives of the citizens against the authorities – into the representatives of the authorities."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "I would claim that the Islamic Republic is the only entity that succeeded in fulfilling the Shah's vision: lowering the status of the clergy, making all Iranians want to become Westernized, and wanting to take off the hijab."
Dr. Goldberg: "There is a certain dimness here in regard to the leadership. I agree with Raz: this protest has no leadership and it is struggling to set up an agenda. But, in a certain sense, it also counterbalances the Islamic Republic itself, because even though the Republic has a supreme leader, it is a combination of coalitions. It also conducts itself through links and connections and functions around the very pragmatic need to perpetuate its existence. These are the reasons why the Islamic Republic knows how to play the game against this path."
Fear that too many will be killed
The Republic might be playing the game, but it is also in a quandary because it does not know how to respond to the protest: it obviously cannot ignore it, but it seems that the regime has not tried – or has not succeeded – in suppressing it completely. This has resulted in endless dragging out of time and a constant increase in the number of victims.
To date, at least 304 civilians have been killed in the protests in Iran. Forty-one of the dead are boys and girls who did not even have the time to become citizens. About 900 civilians have been injured. More than 14,000 have been arrested, and many of them were beaten. On the other side, 37 members of the security forces have been killed.
"It's no coincidence that with all of the regime's brutality, the death toll is still relatively low," says Zimmt. "Within about 40 days there were over 200 deaths. In the fuel riots of November 2019, 350 were killed in just ten days. Why? Partly because the regime is not yet using all the means of oppression that are at its disposal. I am assuming that this is because of the fear that if too many people are killed in a certain event, the protest will gain momentum.
"There is another issue: the Revolutionary Guards have become very involved in the repression, mainly in the Kurdish areas and the Balochi region. In Tehran and other cities, the Guards are regarded as very insignificant, and the majority of the oppression is carried out by the internal security forces and the Basij. If they want to bring the Revolutionary Guards into Tehran, we will witness this."
In the meantime at least, the Guards are not working in full force, and it seems that the regime is caught between Scylla (the continuation of the protest) and Charybdis (extreme oppression that can bounce back like a boomerang) – and hesitates to act. At the same time, the situation of the protest movement is a reflection of the regime: Order has not returned to the streets, but has still not disintegrated into revolutionary chaos.
According to Dr. Goldberg, this actually has advantages. "It is necessary that both sides, the public and the Republic, be convinced of the sincerity of the opposing parties. The Islamic Republic also wants this, so it accuses the protesters of being controlled by Saudi Arabia, the USA and Israel. But these accusations are not catching on. Therefore, the more the protesters take a firm stand in this matter, the greater their ability to claim an honest and organic Iranian personality, the ability to speak on behalf of society – which, by the way, was once reserved for the clergy."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "The Islamic revolution also did not start in 1979. There are those who nail its beginning to 1964, and some to 1971, while others claim that it started in 1975."
Dr. Goldberg: "It takes time. Yes, in a certain sense time works against the protesters, because the Islamic Republic has an establishment, a system, leadership and a mechanism for conveying its messages. But I also believe that time works in favor of the protest because time is the most effective tool for settling ideas in people's minds, in the hearts of the Iranians. In this sense, time is working against the regime, because it seems to be stuck."
Dr. Zimmt: "Time can also cause the regime to make mistakes, and it is giving it many opportunities to do so. In only the next month or two, there is a sufficient number of dates on the calendar that might initiate an event. But in the end, time is good if you know how to use it to your benefit. If we see over time that the situation is remaining in the realm of student riots – the regime will collapse, and it will send the Revolutionary Guards to clamp down on the students, even if this inevitably escalates the situation."
One can look at it from another perspective: why isn't the protest bringing the millions out to the streets already, without the regime making any mistakes? Because of the fear?
Dr. Zimmt: "There is still a fear of civil war, of turning Iran into Syria. It has not gone away, even though there is solidarity with both the Kurds and the Baluchis."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "In the past, when I was asked about the lack of an uprising, I said that it was the fear of Iran being divided. But now we hear in the news reports that Mahsa was Kurdish, the girl who was raped in Zanjan was Balochi, and the girl who was killed in Ardabil was Azeri. In other words, the protest is not held by one ethnic group, and that is very important."
Dr. Goldberg: "They haven't been carried away yet. In general, the attitude towards the Islamic Republic is unsympathetic and sometimes downright hateful, but it also contains a dimension of the lesser of two evils. We know these people, they are one of us, they do things the way Iranians do them. In other words, it cannot be said that the Islamic Republic, as corrupt and oppressive as it is perceived, is an entity of foreign agents. They might be filth, but they are our filth. And this is significant. The students and other protesters fail to undermine this.
"At the same time, the longer this period lasts, the longer this revolution will continue. The protest will become the new normal and will make it more difficult for the Republic to withdraw – or to take action for complete subjugation. The problem is that the protesters have not set clear demands, and the Republic, for its part, does not quite know what to do. It has trapped it, because the protesters are playing on their own court and no one, as mentioned, can doubt their commitment to Iran.
"Therefore, once again, at this point, I am not sure that millions of people in the street is what is needed to bring about change. The collective Iranian consciousness, as I see it, does not want to join a revolutionary movement; it wants to go with whoever succeeds in presenting itself as an option, as a kind of default situation. As time passes, the protesters will get closer to this status and the more time passes, so the status of the Islamic Republic will be undermined to a greater extent, which like any good dictatorship strives to present itself as the default choice."
Dr. Zimmt: "But in the end, you reach some point where you have to create an alternative, even if popularity and public opinion are important. The regime and the Revolutionary Guards will not come one day and say: 'Well, you've convinced us, we've lost our legitimacy.'"
Dr. Goldberg: "It is possible that if the Revolutionary Guards are pushed into a corner, they will, indeed, react with violence – and that brings us back to the discussion on the regime's mistakes."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "Even now there have been quite a few mistakes like these, such as going into university dormitories or carrying out preventive arrests. This is a relatively stable revolution, but every time there is a new flare-up – for example, when beautiful girls, who were TikTokers and Instagram influencers, are killed. They are not black-and-white photographs in the newspaper. These are girls who had many followers. So they contrive stories that only make the problem worse: This one had a heart disease, this one fell from a great height, this one committed suicide, and this one had hemorrhoids. Mahsa Amini had heart disease at age 12. Like, seriously?"
Erosion in the status of Religion
In many ways the current protest, with all its unique character, is continuing the success of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic in the last decade, and with increasing frequency in the last five years – whether the trigger has been women's rights, food or fuel prices, or the water shortage.
According to Dr. Zimmt, the Iranian society and regime are moving in opposite directions. On the one hand, there are trends of secularization, with the demand for political openness and some enforcement of the Islamic dress code, while on the other – there is a regime that is closing itself off and becoming more and more authoritarian." We have always laughed at researchers in the Arab world, who know in advance who is going to win in each country. In the Iranian study, this was not the case. And now, for the first time, it was clear that Raisi would win. The conflicting trends create a trap for the Iranian regime: it might be able to comply with the demands, but then it will set a precedent for others."
Dr. Goldberg believes that despite these conflicting trends, the two sides have a distinct common denominator. "These protesters are not presenting themselves as secular against religious. A revolution in waves was the pattern of 1978 to 1979. Even those who were not religious at the time – and most protesters were not – spoke a religious language of protest. The cyclical nature of the protest – the funerals, the mourning – is characteristically religious."
Dr. Zimmt disclaims: "If you compare the situation to 2009, you can see an erosion in the status of religion among young people. One of the most prominent features of the 2009 protest was going up to the balconies in the evening and calling out "Allah Akbar."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "We have seen videos of people going out onto their balconies and singing 'Baraye' together. At the end of his concert, singer Dariush played a video clip of the song instead of his encore, and actress Golshifteh Farahani also sang at the end of Coldplay's concert in Buenos Aires. This is replacing 'Allah Akbar'."
Dr. Goldberg: "I don't mean to suggest that these young people are religious. I mean that it is a collective vocabulary, from which an alternative can be worded, regardless of whether the people who use it wear a hijab or introduce themselves as potential 'martyrs.' Despite the harm caused by the Islamic Republic, religiosity in Iran is a connecting thread in society.
"In 1978 to 1979, as mentioned above, most protestors were not religious, but they spoke the religious language – both because historically the Shah did not leave any other language for protest and criticism and because he was not afraid of religion and thought that religiosity was an outdated force that could not threaten him. Young people today clearly do not define themselves as religious, but this pattern, this sense of community, the ability to talk about the power of resistance in cycles – they draw all of this from a vocabulary that many older, non-secular Iranians share with them."
According to Dr. Goldberg, "the use of the language of the struggle for justice, which is used for protest purposes, is also taken from the religious lexicon." The war against oppression and injustice is an extremely strong Shiite story. Again, it is also not connected to the degree of piety, but to the ability to mobilize a sentiment of protest and criticism, and speak it in a manner that reaches as many people as possible."
Let's look to the future for a moment: is it possible to put the genie back in the bottle?
Dr. Goldberg: "I don't think it is possible to put the genie back in the bottle. It's already a protest aimed at an alternative, even if it has not yet been fully articulated. Something has to happen."
Dr. Zimmt: "It's impossible. Even an ongoing revolutionary reality shows that it is impossible to return to the Iran of 43 days ago. Even if the regime suppresses the more violent aspects, it is only a matter of time before the protest erupts again. Also, we are already seeing manifestations of civil disobedience; for women who are getting used to walking in the streets without a hijab at all, it will be very difficult to convince them to go back to wearing them.
"The regime will have to deal with the unrest. There is an unsolvable situation here. There are profound processes in Iranian society that cannot be reversed, but, at the same time, I do not see how the regime is becoming significantly flexible. Even if we witness a little less Islamic enforcement, the regime will not be able to completely give up on symbols that are important to it.
We must also never underestimate the determination of the regime and the ideological minority that supports it, even if they are only 10-15 percent. There are several examples of regimes that lost their legitimacy, yet still hold on to power thanks to their ability of oppression, the hard core of their supporters, and the fact that the majority of the public is not taking an active stand. This situation may continue for a long time – the regime will not have the ability to uphold this event, but the protesters will also not have the opportunity to present any alternative."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "Several boundaries have been crossed, and these genies cannot be put back in the bottle. One of these is that this protest can no longer be categorized as a local protest that was taken over by foreign elements. Previous protests started with demands, such as 'Where is my pension money' and ended with 'Death to the dictator'. Now the situation is different. If Khamenei dies tomorrow, the protesters won't say 'great' and go home. The other boundary that was crossed is that the previous protests were either female by definition (the Hijab Protest, as this wave is mistakenly called), or based mainly on men. This time, it's everyone's.
"And another thing that I hope doesn't go back into the bottle, if this protest fades away, is what I spoke about earlier: global awareness of the oppression that the Iranian people are suffering, that they are being held hostage by a regime of Mullahs. I think that even world leaders are becoming aware of the fact that the Islamic Republic does not represent the people, and, therefore, there is a problem in holding negotiations with them."
Q: Given the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, I feel that I must ask if there is something that we, as Israelis, are missing about the protest.
Dr. Zimmt: "I don't think we are missing something, but we as Israelis have a tendency, after so many years of the Israel-Iran conflict, to always look at the bottom line: yes there is a change in regime, no change in regime. In practice, we have to look at the protest as a process.
"With all the emotions and the desire to be enthusiastic about the prospect that seems greater than before, that we are suddenly going to be confronted by a pro-Western, secular and democratic regime that is expressing its love for the nation in Zion; this is not necessarily the case. We must be very vigilant not to follow the remarkable video clips that are coming out of Iran, which are indeed extraordinary. Ultimately, I am not convinced that the protest can be a threat right now to the regime. But, this does not mean that it is not important."
Dr. Goldberg: "Whoever among us Israelis is seeing what is happening in Iran as a dichotomous struggle between 'good' and 'bad' – is missing the point. This is a real struggle for the 'soul of a nation' and it is being conducted in Iranian terms and at an Iranian pace. There is a feeling here of a struggle over deep layers of identity and a shared story. It's hard for us, as Israelis, to grasp that."
Dr. Elam Gindin: "I'm actually really happy to see that this protest helped the penny drop for many Israelis – and this is a sentence I try to find a context for in every lecture and interview: Iran is not an enemy of Israel, Iran and Israel have a common enemy, and that is the Islamic Republic. It is more of an enemy of Iran, than of Israel".
The song has been removed from the account
The meteoric success of the song "Baraye", which became an anthem of the protest, did not go unnoticed by the security forces of the Islamic Republic: the songwriter, Shervin Hajipour, was arrested for two days, forced to delete the song from his accounts, and even published a video, in which he claimed – and it is much more likely that he was forced to claim – that the song was abused by political groups outside of Iran.
Hajipour's song has been removed from his account, but it remains on YouTube and continues to buzz across Iran, taking on a life of its own, despite the Islamic Republic's maneuvers and restrictions.
Perhaps similar to the protest itself.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
