The Iranian decision to attack the Zircon oil tanker, which is linked to Israeli businessman Idan Ofer, raises two quick, seemingly contradictory, insights: The first, that Iran is in a predicament and needs operational achievements; the second, that its self-confidence is high, and its leaders are convinced that they will not pay a price for their actions.
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In Israel yesterday it was difficult to pinpoint a direct motive for the attack. This could have been revenge for the attack last week that was attributed to the Israeli Air Force, in which an arms smuggling operation was thwarted and oil tankers were damaged on the Syria-Iraq border. It could also be the continuation of Iran's efforts to revenge a series of actions attributed to Israel on its own soil, in an attempt to create a balance of deterrence that will deter it from conducting similar actions in the future. It is also possible that this is connected to the World Cup; an attempt to instill fear in Israeli soccer fans and prevent some of them from coming to Qatar, in order to harm efforts of bringing Jerusalem and Doha closer together.
This was the eleventh attack attributed to Iran against assets in the Persian Gulf since 2016. Some of them were directed against Israeli-owned vessels, in order to take revenge for actions claimed to be implemented by Israel against Iranian ships or efforts to smuggle Iranian oil to Syria and Lebanon. The most severe attack in this chain of events was carried out in July 2021 on the Mercer Street oil tanker, which was owned by a foreign company belonging to businessman Eyal Ofer, Idan's brother. A drone that exploded on the vessel's deck killed two sailors with European citizenship – a Romanian captain and a British security guard – and led to sharp criticism against Tehran, which has since frozen its offensive activity in the Gulf.
Now Iran has decided to return to this method of operation. It is likely that, just as in the previous events, the attacking drone was launched by the Revolutionary Guards, under the command of Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh, one of the dominant players in Iran today, who holds a lot of power since the assassination of the commander of the Qods Force Qassem Soleimani. In all these cases an identical Shahed-136 drone was used. However, it seems that in yesterday's attack it was not armed or an extremely small explosive warhead was used, in order for the signaling to be of sufficient intensity, and to avoid significant damage.
Israel yesterday tried to leverage this attack into a בampaign against Tehran. As expected, the use of the same drone that Iran supplies to Moscow in the war in Ukraine was highlighted, as well as what was defined as "an Iranian effort to sabotage the World Cup". From past experience, it is doubtful whether this event will succeed in generating negative energy towards Tehran, which is already suffering from harsh international criticism following the events that started out with the death of the young woman Mahsa Amini and developed into the "Hijab Protest," that has been taunting the authorities in Tehran for more than two months.
New Friends
Iran's confrontational posture should concern Israel to a great extent for a number of reasons, chiefly among them being American weakness (demonstrated by Washington's eagerness to return to the nuclear agreement), and the alliance forged by Iran with Russia and China, which puts it in a stronger position than it was previously. For the first time, it currently finds itself not in a dependent position vis-a-vis Moscow, but with the ability to manage mutual interests, which it will try to leverage for future achievements in Syria and other zones.
Iran is using the self-confidence it gained as a result to intensify its attempts to attack Israel. This is true in the incessant efforts to smuggle arms to Syria and Lebanon, and is true in the endless efforts to attack Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.
Although it failed (and was humiliated) in Istanbul last summer, Iran tried (and failed and was humiliated again) this week in Georgia. The lesson is clear: Iran will continue to try, almost everywhere and all the time, which requires Israel to uphold its expansive and complex intelligence and security efforts.
This effort does not include protecting the economic interests of Israeli citizens, definitely not those operating in foreign countries and under a foreign flag – such as the ship that was attacked yesterday. Even so, this attack should also not be regarded as an attack on a financial company owned by an Israeli citizen, but as an attack on the State of Israel. This attack was certainly a failure, but despite this, it shows more than anything else that there is not, and will never be, any chance of amity with Iran. In the future, Israel will be forced to continue to take action against Iranian targets, both on Iranian soil and around the world, in order to deter and demand a price.
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