Almost two weeks after the parliamentary elections, the security establishment is preparing for rapid changes in the office of the Defense Ministry. Benny Gantz, the outgoing defense minister, has already begun to bid farewell and is getting ready to vacate the office as soon as possible.
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The next defense minister has not yet been appointed, but what is clear is that whoever assumes the role will face complex security challenges, especially given an emerging government whose members are of concern to the US administration, and some of whom view the IDF's rules of engagement as lenient.
Iran
The first such threat is, of course, Iran and its nuclear aspiration. Since Benjamin Netanyahu left the Prime Minister's Office, Washington – under the leadership of President Joe Biden – has changed its approach toward the regime, having significantly eased sanctions on Tehran and attempting to renew the nuclear deal as soon as possible.
The government leaders after Netanyahu – Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Gantz – did not like Biden's approach to the nuclear agreement either, believing it would grant Iran bargaining chips precisely when the regime began to feel the consequences of the economic sanctions imposed upon it.
Unlike Netanyahu during the Obama administration, the Bennett-Lapid government tried very hard not to take a confrontational approach toward the US in this matter.
US-Israel ties are much stronger than the personal relationship between the countries' president and prime minister, and yet, it seems that the Democrats cannot forget Netanyahu's close friendship with their arch nemesis, Donald Trump, and the defiant attitude he took toward the previous administration led by Barack Obama. As such, Israel's next defense minister will need to try to create a good relationship with the democratic administration in a way that might counteract the possible coldness toward Netanyahu.
Despite Biden's strong desire to renew the agreement with Iran, the process is delayed as neither side seems to have the time to deal with it. Tehran is dealing with national protests in the wake of the killing of Mahsa Amini and Washington is preoccupied with the midterm elections. Israel, on its part, is paying close attention to Iran's nuclear progress, and aside from actions attributed to the Mossad, has accelerated preparations for an attack on the regime's nuclear sites. The IDF neglected such preparations during Netanyahu's term, only to wake up after Washington eased economic pressure on Iran, which accelerated Tehran's nuclear enrichment. The military has been instructed to dust off the plans and prepare a reliable military option.
The potential attack on Iranian nuclear sites will be a significant issue for the next defense minister and it seems there is already preoccupation with the matter, as in recent days MK Tzachi Hanegbi, a Likud veteran, has been reported to believe that Netanyahu will pursue an independent attack on the sites. It is interesting to recall that about a decade ago, only the resolute opposition of all the heads of the defense establishment prevented Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak from launching a strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
The Air Force, the Military Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and all institutions entrusted with this task are currently preparing a military plan for an attack, but sources familiar with the matter say that Israel's current capabilities are very limited considering Iran's efforts to shield its nuclear sites. Some have even said they doubt anyone would actually send the IDF on such a mission.
The future prime minister and security-political cabinet will be the ones to decide how Israel deals with Iran, but unless there is some political surprise, it is expected to be composed of people with very little, if any, defense experience. Whether or not Yoav Galant becomes defense minister, he might be the only one to have had such experience.
The new IDF chief of Staff
Besides getting a new defense minister, Israel is also about to have a new IDF chief of staff. Herzi Halevi has already been appointed by Gantz despite opposition from Netanyahu and his bloc to postpone the announcement until after the election.
Halevi and the heads of the Mossad and the Shin Bet security agency may find themselves in a complex reality given a government that includes members that demand the IDF attack Iran and change its rules of engagement.
Terrorism
Another major issue currently facing the IDF is terrorism in Judea and Samaria. The frequent attacks require the military to keep quite a few forces stationed in the region, which undermines training and preparations for a potential war. The next defense minister will have to take this into account, especially given the current state of the Ground Forces.
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Readiness for the war should be high on the defense chief's list of priorities, since the last time extensive IDF engagement in the territories led to the outbreak of the Second Lebanon war, to which the Ground Forces arrived quite rusty.
At the moment, the prevailing opinion of the top of the security establishment is that Hezbollah is not interested in a conflict with Israel, but history has shown that wars can break out unexpectedly, and in the last few years, Israel and the Lebanon-based terror group have found themselves on the verge of a conflict several times.
The Gaza Strip and Syria
When it comes to challenges facing the next defense minister, one cannot help but mention the relative quiet that has characterized the Gaza Strip since last summer's Operation Breaking Dawn (with the exception of one rocket that was fired into Israel last weekend after a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative was killed in Jerusalem).
Let's also mention Israel's efforts against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and other areas, and our complex and delicate ties with Russia, which has a foothold in Syria, which could potentially threaten Israel's freedom of action in the north.
And the list goes on with no less complex challenges, including societal ones, such as the decrease in motivation to serve in the IDF and the exodus of permanent personnel from the military, which may affect the country's security in the future no less than any current defense threat.
