In his first term as prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu was a security adventurer. He authorized the northern Western Wall tunnel exit as well as the Mossad operation to assassinate Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in Jordan. These events remained with him when he entered his second term, which lasted 12 years, and is about to be renewed again.
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During this period, the second one, Netanyahu was much more moderate and balanced when it came to issues of force. More than once the security establishment had to convince him to approve operations. And this is not a criticism of Netanyahu, on the contrary: understanding the limitations of power is a virtue of a leader, and above all, the knowledge that it must be used not as a first, but last resort, after all other options have been exhausted.
Netanyahu's upcoming term is different from anything he has experienced before. Not only because he is facing legal issues, but because the coalition is different this time. In his previous governments, his Likud party was in the middle, and Netanyahu had to maneuver between the various components of the coalition: on the Right were Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman (before moving to the Center) and on the Left, Ehud Barak, Moshe Kahlon and others. This time, the Likud finds itself leading a coalition in which it is most on the Left.
As such, Netanyahu carries even more responsibility in every subject and matter, especially when it comes to security and policy. There will be quite a few people sitting next to him who are convinced that there is now a one-time opportunity to make a new order, such as annexing Judea and Samaria, dramatically increasing Jewish settlements east of the Green Line, and changing the status quo in Jerusalem.
What all these matters have in common is that they are highly explosive and could lead to an increase in terrorism, an uprising in the West Bank, and an escalation on multiple fronts. They could also prompt diplomatic moves, such as renewed criticism from Jordan and Egypt, damage to the Abraham Accords, and conflict with the United States and other Western countries (that might increase various boycott efforts against Israel).
Netanyahu is a man of the world. He likes to stay at the Blair House in Washington and the luxury hotels in London, Paris, and Berlin. It is doubtful whether he will feel like visiting these countries lest he is reprimanded and criticized for his policies. To avoid this, he will be required to conduct a moderate and sensible policy and reach the hearts of world leaders in a reality even more complex than before.
If not, Israel may find itself in a dangerous marginal reality that will set the whole world against it. This will also affect the economy, the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox, the fragile ties with US Jewry, and more.
It is tempting to blame all these dangers on Itamar Ben-Gvir. His associates either claim that he will change and be more moderate and reasonable or assure that his behavior in the last few months only confirms the extremes he is attributed.
It doesn't really matter who is right as Ben-Gvir will not be the one in charge. Netanyahu will. For better or worse, it all boils down to him now. The successes will be his, but so will the failures. As someone who has a high historical and personal awareness, he understands very well that his main challenge will not be outside the government, but from within it.
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