From Tuesday night at 10 pm, once all the polling stations have closed and the results of the exit polls have been published, we will be completely taken up with two magic numbers – 61 and 6.
Whoever wins at least 61 seats will probably be summoned by the president to try and form a new government. There are numerous scenarios for a variety of potential coalitions, but we shall focus on the four most realistic ones.
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If the results of the elections maintain the eternal deadlock between the political blocs, then it won't be too long before we all go marching off once again to the polls for a sixth round of elections. Under such a scenario, Yair Lapid will continue to serve as the prime minister of a transition government. For the moment, this appears to be the most realistic scenario for Lapid to remain in his current position.
Scenario 1: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
According to the first realistic scenario, the Netanyahu bloc gains the desired 61 seats. If the Likud, Religious Zionist Party, Shas and United Torah Judaism parties collectively obtain a parliamentary majority, then Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu will most probably be called upon by the president to form a government. He should then be able to establish a homogeneous right-wing government fairly easily with a majority in the Knesset. However marginal such a majority might be, on paper at least, it should be sufficient to enable Netanyahu to function for a prolonged period of time. The outgoing government also relies on a majority of 61 MKs alone, and originally functioned well, succeeding in passing the state budget along with an extensive Economic Arrangements Law; though, this was a majority made up of no less than 8 parties, from the Right and Left, including one Arab party, which led to the eventual collapse of this rickety coalition within only one year.
An additional, though less likely scenario is a government with Netanyahu together with the State Party. According to this scenario, State Party leader Benny Gantz would enter the government in place of the Religious Zionist Party because of its radical elements. This is an eventuality that Gantz and his State Party have repeatedly stressed throughout the entire current campaign, that simply will not materialize. In any event, in order to form this government, the right-wing bloc would still have to obtain 61 Knesset seats, as the common belief is that Gantz would certainly not join a Netanyahu-led government once again, unless he had 61 seats. In the event of such an outcome, and Netanyahu forms the government in any case, this might just spur Gantz to joining it rather than being severely downgraded to a run-of-the-mill backbench opposition MK. He would not even gain the title of leader of the Opposition, as under these circumstances, this would be a position filled by Yair Lapid, as head of the largest party within the opposition ranks.
Scenario 2: Prime Minister Yair Lapid
Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid's chance of forming the next government currently appears to be slimmer, whereas his chances of continuing to serve as transit prime minister are not so bad at all. The first condition for this is of course that Netanyahu does not obtain the requisite 61 seats for his right-wing bloc, which would prevent him from forming a government.
However, simply blocking Netanyahu alone will not pave the way for Lapid. For the present prime minister to be able to head the next government, he will have to cook up a coalition similar to the outgoing government: with Yisrael Beytenu's Avigdor Lieberman on the Right, Gantz, the Labor Party and Meretz on the Left, as well as the actual participation or ad-hoc support of the Arab parties. But sitting together with the predominantly Arab list Hadash-Ta'al is an extremely tall order, as this is highly likely to arouse strong opposition from the State Party or at least parts of it.
Instead of an Arab party, Lapid might be able to get an ultra-Orthodox party to join or even try and drive a wedge between various parts of the Likud. Both these scenarios presently appear to be a long shot, but Israeli politics has known even greater surprises than these in the past.
Scenario 3: Prime Minister Benny Gantz
Neither does Benny Gantz seem to have a sporting chance of forming a coalition that he can head. In his case too, the precondition would be that the Netanyahu-led right-wing bloc lacks the necessary 61 seats, which might then lead to a series of surprising and unpredictable developments within the various parties that make up the Netanyahu bloc.
In contrast to Lapid, Gantz has a greater chance of drawing at least one ultra-Orthodox party or parts of it into a potential coalition. Prior to the Knesset dispersal, the head of the Degel HaTorah ("Flag of the Torah") faction in United Torah Judaism, MK Moshe Gafni, tried to persuade Gantz and Netanyahu to reach some form of cooperation in which Gantz would be the first prime minister in a rotation. In stark contrast to Lapid, Gantz is considered to be a politician whom the ultra-Orthodox might just be able to accept. Even though his decision to have Matan Kahana join the party list might prove to be a serious obstacle. It is also important to consider that Lapid, just like Gantz, is in need of Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu Party and Meretz, whatever the scenario, making it much harder for the ultra-Orthodox parties to join.
Another march to the polls
Of course, there is always the default option of going for a sixth round of elections. However horrible a nightmare this might appear to be, it is, after all, an extremely logical eventuality. If Netanyahu fails to form a government, then Lapid and perhaps Gantz too will try their hand at forming a coalition they can head, however tough a challenge this might be for them. The political establishment is still trying to recover from a highly heterogeneous government that was unable to survive more than a year before caving in. A repeat performance would not appear to be on the cards right now, especially as the main driving force behind the establishment of such a government at the time, keeping Netanyahu out of the Prime Minister's Office, no longer applies as Lapid is the current prime minister, and it is he who will remain in office in the next transition government, rather than Netanyahu.
Despite all the different scenarios we have outlined, this time too, the fear of the public's desire for a functioning government might just lead to the establishment of a surprising coalition, in a last attempt to avoid another round of elections this coming spring.
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