The State Party's plan to form a government is exposed • the method: if Netanyahu fails to obtain 61 seats – ensure that Lapid gets first shot at attempting to form a government, so as to deny him the excuse of objecting to a Gantz government later on • the feeling in the party is that the Haredim will try to prevent a sixth round of elections despite their denials
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A day prior to the election, Defense Minister and State Party leader Benny Gantz's plan to form a government has been revealed, provided that Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu fails to obtain the 61 Knesset seats required to form a government.
In what in recent years has become an all-too familiar custom due to the incessant elections, President Isaac Herzog is expected to entrust one of the candidates with forming a government, based on the number of recommendations and their chances of actually doing so.
The first candidate to be mandated with this task will be granted 28 days to try and form a coalition. If he fails, then this mandate will be returned to the president, who will then choose a second candidate, who will also have 28 days to form a government. If he too fails, the matter is transferred to the Knesset for 21 days, and the lawmaker who succeeds in obtaining 61 signatures will be charged with the task of forming a coalition.
According to Gantz's plan, the State Party will do everything in its power to ensure that Lapid is the first one to be entrusted with this mission.
The faction is concerned that should Netanyahu be tasked with forming the government and fail, and after him Lapid as well, the two will work together to disperse the Knesset and head for a sixth round of elections before the mandate is returned to the parliament.
The State Party's objective is to enable Lapid to form a government as he claims he can, in order to take the sting out of any future argument put forward by him in objection to a government led by Gantz afterward. According to the plan, Lapid will not succeed as Gantz's party will refuse to form a government in which the Arab Hadash-Ta'al party either participates or offers external support.
After Lapid fails, the State Party politicians then hope that Netanyahu will be mandated with the task, and he too, lacking the requisite 61 seats, will not succeed, while they all give their word that nobody within their party will agree to sit with Netanyahu, under any circumstances.
Ultimately, the State Party is relying on the fact that Netanyahu will use up the entire 28-day period in an attempt to build a government, while they, in the meantime, will endeavor to piece together a coalition together with the ultra-Orthodox, specifically with United Torah Judaism, so that they are ready and waiting with 61 signatures up their sleeve once the mandate for forming a government returns to the Knesset.
This of course is a highly complex plan that could come across numerous obstacles. The State Party believes that the ultra-Orthodox will not want to go to a sixth round of election for a number of reasons: dwindling budgets, the need to take care of their yeshivas, the will to enact an agreed IDF Draft Law and the upcoming municipal elections, which they would like to enter from a position of power, as part of a government.
MK Ze'ev Elkin was quoted at a conference in Eilat, saying if Netanyahu "is prepared to be chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in a government with the Likud – I have no problem with that," hinting at a parliamentary constellation in which the Likud would be in government, but without Netanyahu.
Publicly, both United Torah Judaism and the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas deny that they will go with Gantz after the election, but Haredi commentators have explained to Israel Hayom what is really going on behind the scenes: "The only reason that [United Torah Judaism leader Moshe] Gafni and [Yitzhak] Goldknopf claim they will run with Netanyahu, even if this means remaining on the opposition benches, is to prevent the young within the ultra-Orthodox community from switching allegiance and moving over to [Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar] Ben-Gvir's camp. We Haredim will not sit under Lapid or be part of a government with Lieberman, but what's the problem with Gantz?"
There is; however, no need to quote unquotable sources to understand the real frame of mind among the Haredim. As the last government entered its dying days in May, just prior to making the decision to opt for another round of election, Gafni, told an ultra-orthodox radio station, "As an opposition party you really need to do some soul searching and see what needs to be done." When asked whether Netanyahu would be able to deliver 61 Knesset seats, he replied: "When I said soul searching, I was also referring to that." It is no secret that Gafni was involved in talks with Gantz to form a government based on the Likud and the State Party, in an attempt to prevent further elections.
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During an August broadcast on Radio 103, Goldknopf was quoted as saying, "If we reach a situation of absolute stalemate, with no apparent options, and we need to go with Gantz – then we will have to consider it. I do not rule out any Jew." In another August interview, he did not rule out potential cooperation with Gantz, saying "I am not in a position to say, this is a matter for the Council of Torah Sages."
An additional problem with the Gantz plan is the "Bennett Factor". Last year everybody saw the price paid by members of then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Yamina party for splitting up the nationalist camp. Almost all members of the party list apart from the Likud deserters are most likely to end up ousted from the next Knesset. The likelihood of a move within the Likud to push Netanyahu aside is extremely slender, and the Haredim might not be willing to pay such a price for a heterogeneous government, which is usually fated to fall apart after only a brief spell in power.
The Haredim are of course denying any of this for the time being. On election night, Gantz's plan might have to be shelved if Netanyahu succeeds in obtaining the magic number of 61. But if not, then all eyes in Israeli politics will be firmly focused on the ultra-Orthodox.
