Israel's fifth election in three years has produced yet another inconclusive results, despite a strong showing on the Right. According to initial exit polls released on Tuesday night by Israeli media outlets, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is expected to become the largest in parliament and was within reach of having enough backing to form a coalition with its allies.
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The projected seats had Likud at 30, while incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid was expected to come in second with 24. Israel's fifth election appears promising for the former prime minister, as Channel 12 News predicted a shift to the Right with 61 seats in parliament, compared to 59 to the Left. But the ultimate balance of power could depend on final vote count Wednesday. As the night progressed, Likud strengthened in the updated projections and along with its allies was set to win at 62 seats according to all three major networks – one more seat than necessary to form a majority coalition in the 120-member Knesset. The vote, like past elections, was extremely tight.
Things could ultimately result in more gridlock if the counting, which is expected to continue until Thursday, results in the Arab party Balad winning seats in the Knesset. The fringe Arab party was not projected to pass the minimum threshold in the exit polls, but the final tally could make it win enough of the share of the vote to qualify (it needs at least 3.25% of the total votes). In that case, the balance of power would potentially result in 60-60 hung parliament between the Left and the Right, like the previous four election cycles.
Under Israel's parliamentary system, voters choose among lists, who get awarded seats according to their overall share of the vote. The past four elections produced a hung parliament which in one instance forced Centrist Party Blue and White, led by former IDF Chief Benny Gantz (now running as part of the centrist State Party) to form a unity government with Netanyahu, but that constellation collapsed after the prime minister effectively ended the rotating premiership agreement.
The fourth election, held in 2021, led to the unseating of Netanyahu after a coalition cobbled together from right-wing and left-wing parties managed to create a "Change Coalition" led by then right-wing Yamin Party Chairman Naftali Bennett. It included unlikely partners, including for the first time Arab parties who actively took part in a governing coalition.
That government collapsed after renegades defected to the opposition, which denied the ruling coalition its majority in parliament. The unraveling made Lapid prime minister under a rotating premiership law. Election Day on Tuesday saw turnout break a 23-year record, as Israelis enjoyed a day off for voting. The election
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