"So, what are your elections going to look like?" was the question that members of President Isaac Herzog's entourage and journalists accompanying the president's visit to the United States were asked countless times this week in the capital. In the halls of Congress, at think tanks, in all the most important bureaus of the administration; everyone was looking to get a look into the crystal ball.
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We tried to give them a glimpse, but even our interlocutors knew that a roll of the dice would be just as accurate. "The most likely result of the fifth round of elections in Israel is a sixth one in 2023," said Brian Katulis, vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute, summing up the situation.
Katulis lived in Israel in the past and is familiar with its nuances. In September, he traveled to Israel with an AIPAC delegation to learn about the security challenges facing the country, which also paid a visit to Ramallah.
In an article titled, "Israel's fragmented, dysfunctional politics heads towards elections, again", Katulis described the situation as "a sort of political insanity of doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome. This scenario is leading more and more voices to call for broad reform of Israel's overall political system, calls that go nowhere because of the very national divisions that produce repeated electoral gridlock.
Sounds familiar, America?
Indeed, just as Israel faces a political stalemate – a situation in the game of chess where a player who is facing defeat puts himself in a position where he has no legal move and thus achieves a draw – so too does America. On Nov. 8, the mid-terms will come to an end. The Republicans are expected to win and take control of Congress, which will put President Joe Biden in a pickle. Any measure he tries to pass will be foiled by his political opponents.
One of the first casualties of the expected turnaround will be American aid to Ukraine. The Republicans plan to put a stop to the massive funds that Biden has transferred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In this war as well, victory for either side remains elusive, and weakening Western support will stagnate the situation further: a Ukraine stalemate.
One can't help but notice the similarity between the situation in Israel and what is going on here in the US. In Israel, the Left is united by its desire to hold Benjamin Netanyahu in check. Here, were it not for Donald Trump, the Republican victory would likely be much larger. On the one hand, Trump motivates Republican voters like no one else. And yet, he is the Democrats' winning card. The fear and dislike that the former president generates act as a deterrent to centrist voters to the point where they prefer Biden despite his weakness and old age. The important thing is to block Trump. While the American and Israeli electoral systems are different, the result is the same: An American stalemate.
Herzog tried to turn the curse of the political crises in both countries into a blessing. On Tuesday he met the Iron Lady of the Democratic Party, Speaker Nancy Pelosi – who recently paid a brave and historic visit to Taiwan. During the Capitol riots of Jan. 6, 2021, rioters broke into Pelosi's bureau. On our way to cover the meeting, we walked the same path the rioters had walked – an experience that was scary and thrilling at the same time.
"My visit here during this politically sensitive time, both in Israel and in the United States, is intended to underscore that our alliance is above all politics," Herzog said. "It transcends all governments and political disagreements."
Both Pelosi and Herzog stressed the bipartisan nature of the alliance – and important comments in view of the challenges that await.
The timing of Herzog's visit to Washington was strange – less than a week before the elections in Israel with it clear to all that Biden's people don't want to see Netanyahu return to office. An American move that is interpreted as interference in an election could backfire. Such things have happened in the past.
Both Israeli and American officials insisted that the Biden administration was not interfering. Indeed, if Biden invited Herzog at the last hour before the elections in order to help Prime Minister Yair Lapid, then his help was so subtle that nobody noticed it.
To Herzog's credit, it should be noted that he refused to be used as a political tool. In a roundtable with the leaders of American Jewish organizations he noted the upcoming elections in both countries and said, "we must respect each other's democracies," – a clever hint that if Netanyahu wins the elections, and if Itamar Ben-Gvir is appointed minister, the Americans will have to live with it.
What interests Herzog is diplomacy, and he is active in the field, especially in view of vacuum that Lapid has left in certain areas. It was Herzog who initiated the process with Turkey and he held talks with President Vladimir Putin over the Jewish Agency crisis in Russia.
Here in Washington, Herzog also met with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. He presented the two with proof of Iranian assistance to Russia in the war in Ukraine – not that the Americans needed it.
The wags say that in practice, it is Sullivan and Blinken who manage US foreign policy due to the president's condition. Whether they are right or not, it is clear that the administration looks weak.
This week, in an attempt to curry favor with progressive voters, Biden gave an interview to Dylan Mulvaney – a transgender social media influencer who said: "Mr. President, this is my 221st day of publicly transitioning," to which Biden's ingratiating response was, "God loves you."
When you compare the embarrassing footage with the cold-blooded, chilling images of Chinese President Xi Jinping throwing former president Hu Jintao out of the Communist Party congress, the message to the world is scary. Xi, incidentally, warned his people to be prepared to deal with "dangerous storms."
The Biden administration rejects criticisms of weakness. It claims that its deeds are no less determined and tough than those of the Trump administration, be it vis-à-vis Russia or Iran.
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"There has been no nuclear deal because we haven't been willing to compromise on Iran's demands that we intervene to stop the International Atomic Energy Agency investigation against it," a senior administration official said. "We hit Iran when we see reason to do so. We haven't lifted any of the sanctions put in place by the Trump administration, and practically every week we have imposed new sanctions against senior Iranian officials involved in suppressing the protests."
A couple of weeks ago, the White House published its National Security Strategy. The language and operative plans are razor-sharp. China, Russia, and Iran are noted, in that order, as threats to world peace.
The administration drew red lines for Iran, threatening to use "other means" should nuclear diplomacy fail or should Iran deny freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The nuclear deal appears well and truly stuck with no chance of it returning to life. On the other hand, the Iranians aren't breaking out and they know why. It could be that on this front, things will remain the same for years to come. A nuclear stalemate.
