The Russian offensive launched against city centers across Ukraine over the last few days has led to a new wave of criticism leveled at Israel. Kyiv is demanding that Israel stop adopting a neutral stance (or as they aptly put it: stop supporting Russia) and provide Ukraine with any potential form of support.
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Although this might appear to be a general message, the Ukrainians are clearly referring to one specific method of support: the supply of Israel's iconic Iron Dome missile defense system, including both batteries and interceptor missiles to enable them to contend with the barrage of missiles and suicide drones being launched at them from Russia. This request, which has been voiced with varying intensity since the outbreak of war some seven months ago, has to date been met with a polite, yet clear answer from Jerusalem – this is a non-starter! Minister of Defense, Benny Gantz, repeated this message during interviews this week, and similar messages have been conveyed to the Ukrainians via every possible (diplomatic, clandestine, media) channel, accompanied by various proposals for other kinds of support.
There are a number of motives behind Israel's unswerving position. The first, and not necessarily the most important, is the desire to avoid a run-in with Moscow. There is a difference between supplying medical equipment, or even helmets and combat vests, and delivering advanced weapon systems – even defensive ones – to help gain a decisive victory in the current military campaign. This might not be as morally defensible, but Israel needs to take care of its own interests first and foremost – from the Russian presence in Syria to its concern over the hundreds of thousands of Jews living in Russia.
The second motive is the constant lack of batteries and interceptor missiles. The batteries possessed by Israel are designed to protect it, and there simply are no surplus systems available that it can afford to give out to foreign countries. The exception to this rule is of course the USA, which procured two batteries for its military, and Washington too refuses to pass them on to the Ukrainians (nor even to provide them with Patriot batteries). In any event, Israel requires US approval prior to any sale or transfer of the Iron Dome system to any third country, and no such authorization will be forthcoming in the case of Ukraine.
The third and most important motive is that of secrecy and state security. The Iron Dome system is based on highly classified, global-leading technology, and it is imperative to safeguard this in order to guarantee its continued ability to successfully function. Transferring the system (and the technology) to a foreign state involves an inherent risk of endangering Israel, by such exposure. This is exactly what happened with the drones sold in the last decade to Russia, which were then transferred to Iran, which in turn dismantled and reassembled them, enabling it to produce almost perfect copies. Iran did the same with Israeli drones that fell in Lebanon and Syria and were later delivered to Tehran, as it did too with US drones that fell in Iraq and Iran itself. There is grave concern that should the Iron Dome technology fall into enemy hands – and above all Iran – this would provide them with a golden opportunity to find a way of challenging and even bypassing the system, with the ensuing eventual result bearing the cost of potential Israeli lives in the future.
From Kyiv's point of view, all the above are no more than a set of flimsy excuses. Ukraine is fighting for its life against a vicious enemy and is pleading for assistance here and now to stay alive. Israel should increase the support it gives in any manner possible, it should make no bones about what it cannot do, and above all – stand by the Ukrainians on the diplomatic battlefield. The claims voiced in Israel that this war is nothing to do with us are ludicrous; its impact is clear and has an all-encompassing effect (diplomatically, militarily and economically), and chiefly – if you turn your back on others in their hour of need then don't be surprised when you too are given the cold shoulder when faced with your own war to fight.
The attacks on Ukraine in recent days have exposed the tremendous depth of Iranian support for Russia. Two Iranian drones were filmed seconds before beginning their dive to carry out an attack in Kyiv, and US intelligence has revealed that a deal has also been signed to supply the Russians with medium-range rockets.
We can learn several issues from this. Firstly, it underscores the fundamental weakness of the Russian military that has been forced to turn to a foreign supplier in order to compensate for its failings in the war. Secondly, it is indicative of the quality of Iran's military industry, which is constantly improving at an impressive rate (any operational experience gained by the Iranians, such as the current fighting in Ukraine, will be translated into system upgrades). The third lesson this teaches us is one about Western frailty with regard to Iran, and above all the veracity of Israel's claim that whoever signs a renewed, problematic nuclear agreement with Iran, will facilitate a massive cash injection of billions of dollars to be used for arming hostile elements with Iranian-made drones and rockets.
There are numerous voices in Israel calling for the launch of an international public diplomacy offensive on this matter. The idea is to strike while the iron is hot, exploiting what Iran is currently doing for Russia in Ukraine, tie it in with the nuclear agreement and thus attempt to generate international alarm as to the danger posed by Tehran. This issue was raised in the last few days at a number of senior-level meetings within the political-security establishment, at the end of which a decision was made to continue to sit on the fence and let the facts and images from Ukraine speak for themselves. The concern here is that any blatant Israeli involvement might turn Jerusalem into a player in a war to which it is not party, and thus shift the debate over to the familiar ground of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
In Israel there is still hope that following recent events the Americans will snap back and take action themselves against Tehran. Yet, only an incorrigible optimist would really believe this to be a likely scenario; Washington's main aim is to maintain peace and quiet and it believes that a nuclear agreement is the best way to achieve this. It hasn't even adopted a staunch stand against Tehran in view of the regime's handling of the recent rioting, so any expectations of it stepping up to the plate are no more than wishful thinking. As usual, this means that Israel must prepare to take action alone, certainly as Iran continues to make slow but constant progress towards a nuclear device.
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