The home stretch of the election campaign is also, to be honest, its first stretch. Despite the tension, the uncertainty and the feeling that this time (as always, if to be honest) every vote counts, the major parties have failed to provoke interest and motivate their voters to do all in their ability to lead to a decision in the desired direction. In the ten days until the elections, the candidates will continue doing what they have done up until now: Likud leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to try waking up the Likudniks in their sleepy strongholds and Prime Minister Yair Lapid will continue his campaign of self-branding himself as a top-notch statesman.
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The strategic moves have already been devised, the next actions have been carefully planned, but each party has its X-factor, the "pain in the butt" that they have not been able to get rid of so far, the insignificant factor that could turn the whole process upside down and ruin all the plans. For Netanyahu it's Ayelet Shaked. For Lapid it's Benny Ganz. Three months of campaigning did not result in any breakthrough in their attempts to shake them off and get them out of the way.
Those close to Netanyahu have testified that the pressure is rising. Some even describe a sense of panic. As in all former election campaigns, it doesn't matter who holds which position and who is designated as the director of the election headquarters – in the end, Netanyahu himself manages the whole process, from A to Z. Before the holidays his face displayed a slight tinge of optimism. The internal polls showed that the Right-wing bloc was in the lead, 62 almost 63.
Everyone who talked to him heard one theme: the polls in the media are wrong. They are not taking the recovery of Likud voters into account. This time, he was sure, they would come out in droves. They have had enough being in the opposition for a year and a bit. The coalition with the Left and the Arabs drove them crazy. And in addition, he told them that the visits every evening to the neighborhoods where "golden polling stations" were found, in other words, places with low voting rates in Likud strongholds, would result this time in significant participation in the elections and this the forecasts do not see. He was convinced of this.
But that was a long time ago. In the past week, after many visits in the streets and neighborhoods of these golden polling stations, the expected rise in the polls did not show up. Not in the media nor in the internal Likud polls. Completely treading water. Netanyahu gave full gas, but there is concern that all this was in neutral. And when this reality slaps him in the face, the atmosphere will change, the tension will rise, tones will become harsh and chaos will take over.
Netanyahu cannot even give a straight answer about what to do with Shaked. His family members are putting heavy pressure on him to stamp on her and finish her off. Netanyahu is hesitating. Other senior officials at the headquarters are saying that he should not be wasting energy if it has unclear benefits. And the result of all this is one continuous stutter. While Netanyahu, calling at every opportunity not to waste one's vote on a party that might not pass the electoral threshold, is not taking any other action to try to break down her party from within.
It's not as if he has any doubt about whether she will pass or not. It is clear to him that there is no chance that she is going to pass. The important question to him is where will the votes go if she resigns. Some percent will migrate to the Right, to Likud or the Religious Zionism, and some to the Left, to Ganz and Lapid. As long as there is uncertainty on the subject, Netanyahu has difficulty deciding.
In the meantime, Shaked, who is conveying the message that she will run until the end, is not passing the electoral threshold in any poll. Apparently, this is enough to make her decide to retire during the coming week. But, her and her followers' hope – probably false hopes given the current situation – is that something will happen at the last minute, that maybe Netanyahu will finally come to his senses, realize that she is his only chance to reach the desired 61st mandate and call on the public to vote for her so that she passes the electoral threshold.
Waiting around the corner
Beyond the polls and the evaluation of possibilities as we approach the opening of the polls, Netanyahu is aware of a volcano that is beginning to rumble under his feet. Mainly from his friends in the Likud, but also among the leadership of the ultra-orthodox parties, his so-called natural partners. Now, before the elections, everyone is expressing unity, following him and not glimpsing to either side. Even if he asks them to sign a letter of loyalty or to be interviewed by the media and swear loyalty to him – they will do so.
But beneath the surface other voices are clearly heard. These are the ones that have been spoken in the last few days at every meeting and every random gathering; that this is his last chance. If he fails, the Right-wing bloc will never be the same. The Likud may not either. To be honest, and with all due respect to loyalty towards Netanyahu that the voters of those parties expect, being in the opposition is driving them crazy. In the past year, Ra'am has received 54 billion shekels, and they – zero.
Even more so, the fingers continue to be pointed at them, despite the fact that they have long since been dethroned from their centers of power. Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman is already an old tale, Merav Michaeli recently discovered the secret of success "awarded" to those who bash the ultra-Orthodox, and has also started attacking and condemning them in an attempt to pass the electoral threshold.
Netanyahu understands that the ultra-Orthodox will probably fail in the next test of loyalty if he does not have 61 mandates. Even though there is no certainty that there will be an alternative coalition with the ultra-Orthodox and the Left wing parties, the danger certainly exists.
Another danger is the one developing from within the Likud. The ousting of Haim Katz from his position at the election headquarters by Yisrael Katz looks like the first budding of internal battles within the party. If the Likud forms the government, the situation will calm down. There is nothing like governmental positions to help calm the spirits. But if not – God help us.
Netanyahu will have to work hard to keep the package intact. It is unclear whether this will lead to a rebellion or a split within the party, because despite all, the Likud DNA does not permit any member to go against the incumbent leader so easily. But a failure this time in the elections might be much more challenging than in the past and may manifest itself in a lack of factional discipline, with individual MKs flexing their muscles, with intensive briefings against Netanyahu in the media, and much, much more. This is a slippery and dangerous slope for Netanyahu.
His only consolation is that things are not much better on the other side either. Benny Ganz's insistence on declaring himself a candidate for Prime Minister forced Lapid to choose to sprout as much as possible, and this came directly at the expense of his political bloc's parties. It is sufficient for one of them not to pass the electoral threshold to be immediately thrown into the opposition.
Lapid's great advantage over his rivals is in his power of inertia. If there is no decisive result, he will remain the prime minister. The substantial disadvantage is that if there is, in fact, a government – it probably won't be headed by him. Ganz has a greater chance of forming a coalition if Netanyahu does not have 61.
Holiness and politics
It is a well-known tradition in Kfar Chabad to invite public personalities and dignitaries to "Second Hakafot" on the evening of Simchat Torah; a particularly massive and uplifting event, attended by crowds from all over the country who come to celebrate together with the local Hasidic residents. This year, considered the "Year of Hakhel," held after the Shmita [Sabbatical] year, in which the Rebbe instructed to hold as large gatherings as possible, an exceptionally large number of people came. According to a police estimate, about 15,000 people were present.
The number of politicians who wanted to attend the event also increased significantly. It is not certain that everyone knew that this was the Hakhel; what is certain is that they knew that there are elections in two weeks. Gantz or Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who were both at the event, do not deceived themselves in to believing that they will receive the Chabad support, but they know that for other potential voters, their photos dancing with a Torah scroll and being given respect and praise from Chabad followers and rabbis have priceless value. Just before going to the polls.
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