This is a wake-up call. There is no other way to describe it. It is not about the IDF wanting more budgets or changes. They will, of course, need that as well, but that's not the main part. When we do wake up, it might be too late. It will be just like with the 1973 Yom Kippur War: whatever we do not invest in deterrence now we will have to invest many times over later.
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We should really listen. The speaker knows a thing or two about it. This is his task, which has become a life mission. As a fighter pilot, squad leader, and squadron commander, he knows the operational aspects well. In his current position, he learned the rest: strategy, intel, planning, politics, economics, and above all, passion. The same passion that keeps him up at night.
It's all about Iran. Yes, Iran again. But not the Iran we knew. Meaning, that it's not just about its nuclear program and the usual warnings, but much more. More than what's been made known until now, more than was presented, more than the public and decision-makers in Israel and the world understand. The IDF has finally got it. Late in the game, but finally it understands, as does the Mossad and the security echelon.
Now it's only time for the politicians, who are preoccupied with the upcoming election, to catch up. Unless they wake up soon, we might all wake up to a very different reality soon.
"A regional superpower is emerging next to us"
Col. T. is the head of the IDF General Staff's Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate, which was established two years ago with the understanding that Iran requires more focus and attention than any other arena.
The reason his name is not mentioned fully in this interview is because he is still an active fighter pilot, who often participates in operations. It was his squadron that intercepted the long-range drone Iran launched into Israel last year, a matter that was kept secret until recently.
The directorate he heads was established to shape a plan against the Iranian threat, which Col. T. predicts is a challenge that Israel will face "in the coming decades, and it will only intensify."
"The Iran [we knew] in 2000 or 2010 was completely different from the Iran of 2020. This requires us to act differently. First of all, to establish an entity that will organize the outlooks and build approaches, on the basis of which it will be possible to plan operational plans and make the necessary preparations and adjustments," he said in his first exclusive interview. "It's a process that will only intensify, because the challenge we see is so great going forward, that it requires us to prepare long-term, with budgets and infrastructure that will match the size of the challenge that awaits us."
Iran has been a concern for Israel for decades, but the nuclear agreement that was signed between the Islamist Republic and world powers in 2015 – officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – allowed to IDF to use its resources for other matters, mainly Ground Forces, with the understanding that the Iran issue was postponed for several years.
However, the US withdrawal from the accord in 2018 as well as Iran's nuclear progress, terror activities, and efforts to strengthen its proxies in the region required the military to return to the issue.
Q: How would you describe Iran the way it is today?
"A regional superpower is emerging next to us, which constitutes the main threat to the State of Israel and challenges the Israeli security approach many years ahead. This will force us to prepare accordingly, invest resources, and pay attention. Unless we take this seriously, we may wake up to developments that we were not prepared for in time."
According to Col. T, this is not purely a military, but also a national challenge. The IDF is leading this fight, but it cannot do this alone, and a shift is required in the national understanding.
"Iran challenges us on several levels," Col. T. continued. "The first, in their quest for nuclear power. The second, in the proxies they are trying to position around us, whether it is Hezbollah in Lebanon, whether it is the desire to establish a base in Syria, or whether it is the support for the Shiite militias in Iraq, Yemen or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza Strip.
"The third thing is that Iran is the largest and most dangerous supplier of weapons, capabilities, means and technology to all our enemies. And when you combine all these components into one picture of the challenge that Iran poses to us, it is a challenge that obliges us to prepare for it with the utmost seriousness, certainly when accompanied by the fact that Iran denies our existence and actively works to make sure we are not here in 10, 20 or 30 years.
"It is working to achieve this with ideology, money, budgets, trying to hurt us no matter where we are, and when it comes to a regional power gaining strength, and it also has many means and reserves and will have even more advanced capabilities in the not too distant future – this is a major challenge to our security."
Q: Hasn't this been the case for many years?
"The vectors were there, but the threat of this capacity was not. Iran has made a dramatic leap forward in its military capability. In 2000, it had no possibility of hitting us from Iran. In 2010, it had several hundred inaccurate missiles. If you look at its arsenal today, at the number of precise missiles it has, on how it arms our enemies – this is a different Iran. So the nuclear issue is, of course, the main threat, but along with it there is a threat developing here on a scale that we've never known before, which is only going to increase in the coming years and requires us to be prepared and deal with it differently."
Q: What exactly do you mean?
For example, "If today Iran has hundreds of missiles and drones that can reach us from Iran, in 2025 it will have thousands. All of them of the precise kind."
Q: And what does that mean for Israel?
"Israel has incredible layers of defense, but our preparation against Iran should also be an offensive preparation so that if we come to a confrontation we can defend ourselves, but also deal such a painful blow to Iran in return, that they will not think of trying to provoke us again."
Col T. believes that Iran is not currently interested in a broad confrontation with Israel, but is preparing itself for such a possibility in the future. The more Iran's military prowess grows, the more likely it is to act or join in case of a war with Hezbollah in the north.
"Iran is not alone, it is trying to create a regional system. And members of this system will want to protect each other. Therefore, when we look ahead, we need to prepare not only for one arena but to deal with the entire Iranian system.
"Iran is not just Iran itself, Iran is the regional system it is trying to create. And this system will want to protect and protect each other. Therefore, when we look ahead, we need to prepare not only for one arena but to deal with the entire Iranian system," he said.
"It's not just about the pilot in the cockpit"
Col. T. stays away from the media and does not meet with journalists. His interview with Israel Hayom is the first he's ever given due to what he said was the emergency and importance of the matter.
He is 43 years old and married with four children. For many years he lived on an air force base where he served, but now the family lives in a kibbutz in the south. He has a bachelor's degree in accounting and finance as well as governance, democracy, and strategy and a master's degree in national security. In his previous role, he was the second commander of 140 Squadron and led efforts to integrate the F-35 aircraft into operational activities in various arenas.
In the early 2000s, he was supposed to be one of the leaders of the attack on the Iranian nuclear sites, that is until the nuclear agreement was signed and the plan was shelved. He has spent hundreds of hours preparing and knows the arena in great detail. When asked about that time, Col. T. smiles. At the end of the day, combat flying is his greatest love.
Q: What would you say is relevant to 2022 from that time when Israel was most ready to attack Iran?
"First of all, that it is incredibly important, and doing it means dealing with the greatest potential threat to the State of Israel. Second, that there is no one else to do it, that our destiny is in our hands and that we should be prepared for it. And third, to be proud that we have the ability, means, intelligence, weapons, and fighters – all the components that ultimately lead to the ability in the end."
Q: Did you think at the time that we would strike Iran?
"We were very, very, very seriously involved. I didn't know if it was going to happen, and it's not the point either. Our job is to be prepared for what they ask of us. And that's what we did. We trained as hard and as best as we knew how to, so that when they asked – the ability would be there ".
Q: Was it in a way disappointing when you weren't sent on the mission after all that preparation?
"Absolutely not. It provides a sense of security that you are only called upon on a mission when needed. You trust the decision makers not to do something that is not necessary, and when they do go ahead, you know that it is important enough for the security of the country."
Q: It sounds very complicated.
"Very. Developing this ability, it's not just about the pilot in the cockpit. It's the intelligence and the operation and the policy and the coordination with the partners, and a thousand and one different factors, political and military, that have to play their part in order for this to happen."
Col. T. believes that Israel should be ready to attack Iran at any moment lest it blazes to a nuclear bomb.
"We need a comprehensive military capability to do this, and also to strike Iran in case it decides to respond. Tehran needs to know that if this happens, Iran will come out of it ibattered and bruised and realize that the nuclear bomb is the last thing that pays for it to do because of the heavy price that will be exacted."
Q: You've used the words "regional power" before. Can you explain what that means?
"They are investing a lot in building their power, in a variety of fields. We see them starting to intervene not only in what is happening here in the region but also in other parts of the world. Look at their involvement in the war in Ukraine, in sales of military equipment, in Africa, and in South America. This is a country that perceives itself as a superpower and allows itself to do things today that it did not do in the past."
Israeli officials have warned time and again that this process will accelerate the moment the nuclear deal is renewed, as Iran will receive billions of dollars once sanctions are removed.
"That is absolutely what will happen," Col. T. asserts. "Iran will prioritize gaining more power, strengthening its proxies, and enforcing the Islamic Revolution on its citizens. Every dollar that Iran will get will go to the Revolutionary Guards, firstly, to maintain the existence of the regime, and secondly, to spread terror and chaos."
Q: What is their logic? What is their ultimate goal?
"They are first of all motivated by the conflict between the Shiites and the Sunnis. As far as we are concerned, they are doing and will do everything to bring about the future collapse of the State of Israel. They are working towards this themselves, and through their proxies in the region. Their vision is to create a Shiite crescent in the Middle East and end the existence of Israel as a Jewish entity."
Col. T. also points to what he calls Iran's "strategic determination," the same one that makes her persevere in its way, despite the heavy prices the country has paid along the way.
An example of this is its continued efforts to establish Shiite militias in Syria and to arm Hezbollah, despite thousands of operations and strikes carried out by the IDF, mainly in Syria. "They have strategic patience," Col. T. said. "Nevertheless, we have managed to thwart most of their plans."
Q: Could you give an example?
"Like its efforts to establish a foothold in Syria. The desire to be in charge in Syria, to make its way and operate unequaled systems of precision missiles and advanced air defense systems there. We have prevented all of these until now, but they are not giving up. What we've done so far shows that when we want something, and it is important enough to us, it is possible to achieve results. But this challenge is not over. It's just the beginning."
Q: Can we speak about the Iranian threats in more detail? For instance, how convinced are we that they are trying to build a nuclear bomb?
"They decided on a military program, that much has already been revealed in the nuclear archives, and they withdrew because of the military threat and international pressure. Therefore, the working assumption of Israel and the Western world should be that nothing has changed for them, and they are taking time until they are in the right strategic conditions to do it."
Q: What conditions are those?
"To be strong enough, and to think that when they do decide to go nuclear, no one will be able to stop them. Everything else along the way is just games. This is how I see it. It may be that right at this moment they are not pursuing military nuclear capabilities, but they are working to create a flexible space for themselves to do so in the future. They've made significant progress since they left the nuclear agreement."
As such, the IDF changed its plans with regard to Iran at the end of last year and put military readiness at the top of its priorities list, with all the implications – operative and budgetary – that it involves.
"That is the most basic of our duties," Col. T. said, but that is just the beginning. " "It is our duty to prepare for another 10, 20 years. To understand the magnitude of the challenge, and where it's headed. It is no longer the same. What is being built in front of us is something different from what we have known until now."
Q: How so?
"It is more complex, bigger, more dangerous. We talked about the nuclear bomb, the distribution of weapons, and the influence in the region. This is no longer a threat that only concerns the IDF. It is a political and national matter. We are not talking about a war in Gaza or Lebanon, but about a country that is 1,500 kilometers away and is conducting a regional strategic competition with us, in which we must always maintain superiority so that if we do get into a conflict with it, we will come out of it with an improved strategy."
Q: And are you saying that as of today, Israel is not ready for such a confrontation?
"The military is the strongest it has ever been, but when I see where the Iranians are going, the clouds that are darkening around us on the horizon, we should really take it seriously and prepare for it ahead of time, and now is that ahead of time.
"This warrants additional investments, and the sooner, more correctly, and more accurately we make them, the more prepared we will be. The more strength we project in the coming years, the more we will deter, and the more weakness we project, the more it may lead to attempts to challenge us. Therefore, only by investing will we make sure that we won't find ourselves dragged into dangerous adventures."
Q: What more is needed? Money? Equipment? Intelligence?
"I won't go into each of the details specifically, and if someone drags us into a war, surprises await him beyond what can be imagined because Israel is really strong; but the ability to conduct a complete, extensive, long campaign, 1,500 kilometers from here, requires additional measures, which are different from those required to conduct a campaign nearby. And in order for this ability to exist in the future as well in the face of the dramatic threat built around us, we need to invest now."
Q: And if we don't prepare, will we be jolted into action like it was with the Yom Kippur war?
"You've described it well. Unless we prepare, we will undermine our superiority that exists today and Israel's security preparedness for a future war, and we will require much larger investments in the future than those that can be invested in advance in an intelligent way."
Rely only on ourselves
Col. T. knows that there will be quite a few officials, especially in the Finance Ministry, who will claim that the IDF is exaggerating to get more funds. And although the military has been accused of crying wolf before, he asserts that this is a serious matter.
"We in the IDF are not detached from what is happening in the country. I have lived in the south for 15 years, we also stand in traffic jams with everyone, my children study in the education system. I think we need money for teachers and hospitals – the challenges are clear to me as well, and I know there are other urgent and important things as well. But the challenge I see we are about to face will require us first of all to be strong so that they don't mess with us, and if they accidentally do so – the results will be devastating for them. And unfortunately, when I look to the future, I definitely think it might happen and we should be ready for it."
T. is not too worried about the near future, however.
"Iran is not planning for the short term, not one year, not five, not even 10. It has patience, and it really doesn't care if it happens in 25 or 50 years. It is creating a spatial situation that will result in Israel collapsing. To create a Middle East without Israel, and it is investing in it every day. Look at the infrastructure in Iran. Everything is substandard because it is not prioritized. But there is money for the Revolutionary Guards and for strengthening and for the proxies and for terrorism. It has not stopped for a moment."
Q: What are they trying to do?
"Well, we've mentioned the nuclear bomb already. I think that as soon as the masks are removed, and Iran is strong enough, it will go nuclear. And they also want to arm all their proxies with unimaginable amounts of precision weaponry. That they will all have missiles and drones that can reach long distances. That Iran should have a Shiite succession, through Iraq and Syria, and Lebanon, which will undermine the Sunni majority.
"And they will want to challenge Israel through their proxies, without being harmed in Iran. Everyone will eventually pay a price and sacrifice for it – in Lebanon, in Gaza – and there, in Iran, they will remain unharmed. They want to exhaust us, and we cannot afford this to continue."
Q: Through air defense?
"That's another option. We talked about the fact that Iran is a growing superpower, and we already feel the challenge of the precision missiles around us, and this is also true of their defense systems. I think that in the coming years we will see them trying to negate our air superiority. To place such systems around us, on land and at sea."
Q: Are they good at it?
"They are very fast. They learn quickly, develop new versions, and improve. There is a learning competition here between us, and they present us with a difficult challenge in this field."
Q: An average Israeli would say that we are excelling. That we are targeting them in Iran, Turkey, Syria. But that is not how you seem to see it.
"When you look at how we deal with Iran, then the picture seems as you describe it now. But if we look at the ever-evolving picture, we will see that Iran's situation today is immeasurably better than it was in 2010, and much better than it was in 2000. And in the future it will only get better."
Col. T. also believes that the Iranian threat shouldn't just be a concern for Israel. We may be at the center of the issue, but the Islamist Republic's nuclear aspirations will affect the entire Middle East, but also Europe and the United States.
"This should worry the whole world, and we must try to develop partnerships, but we must act as if we are alone in this story because we don't know right now who will help us," he said.
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Israel must also make sure to make it clear that just like it won't allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, it also won't stand for its efforts to arm proxies in the region, especially with precision weapons, he said. "This means that we will not allow ourselves to be surrounded by enemies and/or conventional weapons systems in unacceptable quantities, to the extent that we may have to act proactively as we are doing in Syria to stop the threat before it becomes greater. We must understand that the longer we postpone the confrontation, the more devastating the results will be."
"I'm still nervous before operations"
What Col. T. loves the most is combat flying. The F-35, he says, is an amazing aircraft that he has already flown on many operations in a variety of targets in the region.
"The privilege to fly and protect is in the blood of every pilot. Sit there at low altitude, you and this block of steel, and protect the country."
Q: But when the operation actually begins, what do you feel?
"When I was young, I was sure that only I – as a young pilot – get nervous before an operation, and that all the veterans are no longer nervous about this thing. Then you mature and you find that you are exactly as nervous as when you were young.
"But from the moment the engines go on, the nervousness passes – and you're just in the middle of the mission. Then you find yourself hundreds of kilometers from here, and you're focused on how to perform the mission best."
Q: Let's talk about the F-35s for a moment. Israel is a pioneer in the use of this aircraft in the world, and I don't think there are many fighters with your operational record.
"Without a doubt, this is the best plane in the world today. It also combines all the capabilities of fighter planes from previous generations, in carrying armaments, weapons and such, as well as stealth and survivability capabilities that allow it to reach places that other planes cannot."
Q: Let's go back to Iran. Are you concerned about being called an alarmist?
"It does worry me. That the insights that sit in my head, and with us in the security establishment, have not yet permeated the upper echelons. I'm not trying to panic here, that's not the point. My words are based on knowledge, on experience. It's something rational that's based on intelligence."
Q: And what do you think Iran will think once they read this interview?
"That Israel takes them very seriously. I hope they don't get confused and make strategic errors and make the mistake of thinking that Israel is a small and weak country. They simply don't understand what strength Israel has, both in the military and in human capital.
Q: Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's cobwebs.
"They simply don't understand us. They don't understand our motives, they don't understand where we came from and they don't understand that we don't have another country. And their quest to threaten Israel to the point of existential threats could push us into a corner, and they will regret it very much."
Q: And why do you think the world doesn't seem to share your concern?
"It's hard to convince someone who doesn't live in the region and is not exposed every day, and doesn't have the level of intelligence we have and simply doesn't understand. Israel is at the forefront, due to its geographical location, but I think we might be the first to be exposed, but the Iranians are looking at exporting the revolution to everyone.
"We tell them that we are not crying wolf. This is the reality, and all of us should be prepared properly. There are great opportunities here in the region – the Abraham Accords, the gas discoveries – that we need to leverage as much as possible with our allies, led by the US. Our role in the security system is to allow all of this to grow, because the more the economy prospers, the more we can do in the military campaign as well."
Q: And yet you said earlier that in the end, we should only count on ourselves.
"I don't know if it means that we are alone, but we do have to prepare as if we were. Of course, make every effort to create partnerships, but rely only on ourselves."
