With the deadline for submitting party lists for the upcoming Nov. 1 elections nearing, Israel Hayom and Maagar Mochot research institute conducted a survey that showed that were elections to be held this week, Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu would garner 60 Knesset seats, if Zionist Spirit leader Ayelet Shaked were to withdraw.
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If Shaked does run in the elections within the current political framework, the number would go down to 59, while her own party would fail to cross the four-seat electoral threshold to get into the Knesset.
Several dramatic changes occurred a week ahead of the deadline: Shaked and Communications Minister Yoaz Hendel ended their short-lived partnership and announced they would run in the elections separately; Prime Minister Yair Lapid was unsuccessful – at least for the time being – in uniting the Left's Meretz and Labor. At the time these lines are written, it is yet unclear who Netanyahu has in mind for the places reserved for him on the Likud list.
The poll, which included 503 respondents that represent the overall voting potential, showed that Netanyahu's Likud would garner 33 Knesset seats, followed by Lapid's Yesh Atid with 23. Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party, Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, and Benny Gantz's State Party are contending for third place with 12 seats each.
They are followed by Sephardi ultra-Orthodox faction Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Labor with seven seats each, as well as Meretz with five, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with four. Arab factions the Joint Arab List and Ra'am would each garner four Knesset seats.
As mentioned above, Shaked's Zionist Spirit fails to garner the necessary four seats to enter the Knesset, as does Hadar Muchtar's new Tze'irim Bo'arim.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who although had announced that he was taking a hiatus from politics, can still change his mind by Thursday and join the race. The survey included this possibility as well, and results show that a possible run by Bennett would not affect the right-wing camp and it would still garner 60 votes. Bennett himself would gain five seats, mostly at the expense of Lapid and Gantz.
If Labor and Meretz do unite, the poll shows they would garner 13 seats, just one more than they would get by running separately. A change so imperceptible would nevertheless dramatically affect the Right, allowing it to garner 61 seats and be able to form a government without the help of any outside faction.
As for the premiership, Benjamin Netanyahu continues to lead by a significant margin as 44% said he was most suitable for the role, followed by 24% who said Lapid would be better, and 11% who support Gant. Almost a quarter of respondents, 21% said they were either unsure or had a different candidate in mind.
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