For better or for worse, the relative decline in the international importance of the Palestinian issue is attributable to the Netanyahu governments over the past decade.
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In the first decade of the 2000s, allegiance to the idea of a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria was de rigeur in international discourse, and any newbie statesman – whether he believed in the idea or considered it dangerous – was required to pay tribute lest he be considered unhinged. Coming into the second decade of the 21st century, the international system began to show signs that it was loosening the chains of adherence to the two-state concept.
The civil wars in Syria and Yemen and the rise of Islamic State and Islamic terrorism, all played their part by providing "proof" that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not the root of all evil and violence in the Middle East. The conduct of the Palestinians, from incitement to terrorism, strengthened skepticism about the existence of a partner, and the Abraham Accords highlighted the option of normalization and peace without Israel having to make concessions and withdraw.
This trend continued after Benjamin Netanyahu was no longer in power. Perhaps it was just the sheer strength of momentum, or perhaps the Lapid-Bennett government realized that resuscitating the Palestinian issue wouldn't score them any points among the Israeli public, which already knew a thing or two about the bloody costs of concessions to the Palestinians. But the picture has begun to change and there are growing signs that the Palestinian issue is coming back to center stage.
Dr. Dore Gold, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, who served as Israel's ambassador to the United Nations during the late 1990s, says special attention should be paid to initiatives on the boil at the organization he knows so well.
"There is good reason to be conscious of these issues all the time, especially in the context of the United Nations, because this is an arena where Israel's diplomatic vulnerability is particularly prominent," says Gold. "In recent years, our ties with the rest of the world have improved. Our ties with European countries and with the European Union have improved, our ties with Arab and Islamic countries have improved, and so have our ties with Russia and with countries in its sphere. But the United Nations remains a difficult challenge. If I were on the other side and I had to plan an international offensive against Israel, I would focus on the possibilities of an initiative at the United Nations."
Back to the UN
That is exactly what the Palestinians and their supporters have been trying to do recently. A first warning light appeared on the horizon at the end of May 2021 when the United Nations Human Rights Council – infamous as a bastion of anti-Israeli sentiment – set up an "ongoing, independent, international commission of inquiry" against Israel.
"In practice, this is a new inquisition, the sole aim of which is to harm a member nation of the United Nations – the State of Israel," explains Dr. Hillel Neuer, executive director of UN Watch, which monitors international organizations, chiefly the United Nations, and exposes anti-Israel activities. "The commission of inquiry is led by Navi Pillay, who as High Commissioner of the UNHRC was responsible for establishing commissions of inquiry against Israel and the publication of the Goldstone Report. Like her, the other members of the commission of inquiry are biased against Israel."
After another member of the commission of inquiry, Miloon Kothari, aired his anti-Semitic views, UN Watch formulated a motion to disband the commission of inquiry. Neuer knows that the motion has no chance of passing, but he refuses to remain silent in the face of gross violations of the rules of behavior in an organization that claims to serve as an example to others.
"We document the commission's bias against Israel," explains Neuer. "We have led to 20 states, including some that have never spoken out against UN experts, to condemn in one form or another – some more directly and some with veiled criticism – Kothari's anti -Semitic remarks. Even the UN Secretary-General was forced to issue a statement and as a result, the credibility of the commission has been harmed. UN regulations are very clear and require the organization's representatives to be impartial. In fact, the members of the commission of inquiry are biased; they have labeled Israel an 'apartheid state' and they cannot be expected to deliver conclusions that are not biased, and therefore we are demanding that it be disbanded."
Q: What potential damage can the commission cause to Israel?
"The commission's mandate is unlimited. It may deal with any issue connected to Israel, including past wars or claims that Israel is an arm of colonialism employed against Arabs as natives of the region. The commission is scheduled to submit reports at least twice a year. The first report was submitted to the United Nations in Geneva and was relatively short. The second report will be submitted in New York in October and will be extremely aggressive against Israel. The commission's reports are expected to be a reenactment of the Goldstone Report with the aim of attaching to Israel an image of an 'apartheid state,' demonizing it, and handing over its findings to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. The implications for Israel will be on two levels: From the propaganda aspect, Israel's good name will be harmed and many will adopt a negative attitude toward it; from the legal aspect, the testimonies gathered by the commission of inquiry will serve to create an infrastructure of evidence to be used against Israel at the International Criminal Court."
Neuer, like many others, is worried about the commission of inquiry against Israel, and at the same time, he is continuing with his other battles. There is no shortage of fronts, especially in the field of financing of anti-Israel activities. The Biden administration canceled the policy of its predecessor, former President Donald Trump, to deny American finance to UNRWA, even though there is ample evidence that it has continued to misuse these funds to incite against Israel.
At the same time, nine European states, (Belgium Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Holland, Italy, Sweden, and Spain) announced a month ago that they would continue financing six Palestinian NGOs that Israel declared terrorist organizations after the Shin Bet security agency exposed their connections to terrorism. The enthusiasm to reignite the Palestinian issue at any cost has even triumphed over the fact that these nonprofits are associated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which has been defined by the European Union itself as a terrorist organization.
Recognition of Palestine as a state, take 2
There may well be however far greater and more immediate danger lurking in the corridors of the United Nations. According to official declarations by representatives of the Palestinian Authority, they are planning – for the first time since 2011 – to reignite the move to make the Palestinian Authority a full member of the United Nations.
To win recognition as a member state, the Palestinians will have to gain the votes of nine of the 15 members of the United Nations Security Council and hope that none of the five permanent member states vetoes the decision.
In 2011, the Palestinian Authority was within touching distance of the goal and it was only the position of Bosnia Herzegovina, a country with a large Muslim population, that prevented them from achieving it. The constitution of the Bosnian state requires that decisions on foreign affairs are made in consensus between the three ethnic groups that make up the country – Bosnian Muslims, Serbs, and Croats. Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative to the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the collective federal head of state, issued a veto at Israel's request on an attempt by Muslims in his country to support the Palestinian move.
Since 2011, the Palestinian Authority has not repeated its attempt to initiate full membership in the UN. A decision to do so would signal that in the wake of the change of administration in Washington and the political upheavals in Israel, the PA feels comfortable enough to promote an upgrading of its international status. When the heads of the State Camp speak openly about "narrowing" the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and their desire to prevent a binational state, the Palestinian renaissance in the international arena receives a domestic Israeli boost.
Neuer is convinced that Palestinian acceptance as a member state in the UN will not happen at this stage.
"I would be very surprised if the United States supports the move," he estimates cautiously. "Even though there are those in the current administration with a supportive attitude to the PA, the United States does not see the PA as a state. The Palestinian Authority may nevertheless decide to initiate such a move if only to embarrass the United States and the West. Moreover, Mahmoud Abbas has a clear interest in broadcasting a message of diplomatic activism against Israel to show his public that while Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are firing rockets at Israel, he isn't sitting on the sidelines and hasn't abandoned the struggle against the Zionist enemy. But at the same time, I am convinced that the United States will act to block any such move and so will the current leadership in the United Kingdom and even in France. The Palestinians need to understand that such a move is doomed to failure and can only damage them, but we all know them – in the past, they have made several moves that just embarrassed them and damaged their cause.
According to Neuer, Biden's decision to renew the financing of UNRWA does not necessarily mean the Americans are about to move toward the Palestinians on depth issues such as acceptance to the United Nations. The way he sees it, the decision is a kind of American compensation as if the Americans were saying, "We aren't going to take political measures in your favor, but at least we will give you some money."
Progressive pressure
On the surface, the delicate political situation in the United States, (the upcoming midterms in November) and in Israel (a transitional government with elections on November 1) could deter the administration from collaborating with the Palestinian effort for the moment. However, Dr. Gold suggests that we closely follow the deep streams within the Democratic Party in order to understand the forces that are tipping the balance there. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party is particularly supportive of the Palestinians and we should be paying attention to what they are up to," he says categorically.
"We remember for example, how last year there was talk of opening the American consulate in the eastern part of Israel's capital for it to serve as a sort of representative office to the Palestinians in Jerusalem, even though this would be completely superfluous as the Americans already have an embassy in the city and it includes a wing responsible for Palestinian issues."
Q: Perhaps that is a hint that the Biden Democratic administration has an interest in dusting off the Palestinian issue?
"Every American administration will want to invest effort in a process that has a chance of success. You have to understand that if the Palestinians initiate a move to upgrade the status of the PA to full member status at the United Nations they will be harming certain parameters diplomatic process. There is no proof that the United States today wants to collapse existing parameters in favor of something they haven't examined. At the moment, there are no signs that a new diplomatic process with new parameters would have any chance of success."
One way or the other, Abbas has already publicly aired his intentions to focus on getting full member status at the United Nations. In recent meetings he held with Biden, President Emmanuel Macron of France, and King Abdullah of Jordan, as far as we know, he didn't hear a decisive no from any of them.
Counting on a consolation prize
Even if Abbas doesn't achieve his operative goals, reigniting the process has significance with regard to the repositioning of the Palestinian issue on the agenda of the international community. Brig.Gen. (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, formerly head of the research department at IDF Military Intelligence and Director General of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, believes the Palestinians will do everything to get back on the international agenda and we'll take advantage of the current situation in a way that will enable them to increase their activities against the existence of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people.
"They get up in the morning to fight Zionism and they go to sleep at night to dream about the battle against Zionism," says Kuperwasser.
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"Abu Mazen even has a committee that he manages working on the promotion of the Palestinian narrative that negates the existence of the Jewish people and erases Jewish history from the Land of Israel. That is his primary occupation and I hope the international community doesn't make the same mistake and give him additional tools for his battle against Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. The biggest achievement in their own eyes will be to receive recognition as a state like all other states. Israel should see be looking at such a scenario with extreme concern because our security is based on the fact that we have freedom of action throughout the Palestinian Authority to prevent the terrorism that the PA is trying to operate against us. If they become a state, the question will arise whether we can maintain our freedom of operation in the areas under their control."
What will the reality of a reawakening of the Palestinian issue really look like? Kuperwasser has no doubts about the difficulties that this will create for Israel. "If they don't succeed at the United Nations, they will demand compensation and they will find an attentive audience among the American administration. The Americans have become used to demanding all sorts of measures from Israel to strengthen the Palestinian Authority in order to calm them down. The PA has turned misery into a magnet to receive more rights and gain more and more achievements. During Biden's last visit, Israel was forced to give them all sorts of things as compensation for them not being on center stage and all this in order to placate the Americans. Some of these [concessions] are problematic for Israel from a security point of view. For example, the Israeli agreement to allow the PA to operate a 4G telephone network, as well as approval of construction in several parts of Area C. The Americans have made a mockery of the Taylor Force Act that prevents the transfer of American funds to the Palestinian Authority. Instead of direct transfer of funds, the Americans fund other elements that the Palestinian Authority was supposed to finance, and the PA is left with more money for martyrs. That is the American operational logic, just to compensate the Palestinians from being pushed off center stage."
