There isn't an MK, a minister, a journalist, or anyone involved in politics for that matter who hasn't been asked dozens of times over the past couple of months by friends and family, colleagues, and casual acquaintances whether or not in the coming election Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and its allies will reach the magic number of 61 Knesset seats. This has been the $64 million question for the past three years, and now, just as in the previous rounds of elections, nobody knows the answer.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
In every interview in which senior politicians from the anti-Netanyahu camp are asked to explain how they will put together a coalition after the election, their answer begins as follows: "If Netanyahu doesn't manage to reach 61..." It is as if were he to achieve that number, the answer would be clear: They, his opponents, would remain in opposition, while he would put together a coalition with the right-wing parties. "A full right-wing government," as Netanyahu put it in the last elections. But it isn't at all certain that is the right answer.
At least two parties believe that Netanyahu has other plans if he achieves the magic number. One of those parties is the Religious Zionist Party and the other is Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power). The roots of the current conflict which may lead the to run separately lie in the evaluation that Netanyahu, if he manages to put together a right-wing coalition of 61 will then prefer to bring on board Blue and White leader Benny Gantz or another party from the opposing block at the expense of Otzma Yehudit, which will be relegated to the opposition.
Every commitment not to be the party that makes up 61 for Netanyahu will become irrelevant if he manages to reach that number. If he gets to 61, he has a government that will be homogenous and stable. In such a scenario, all of the other players will then have an opportunity to "save the country" from Otzma Yehudit chairman Itamar Ben-Gvir and his ilk and enter the government in their place. The conventional wisdom in these right-wing parties is that this is Netanyahu's plan. They believe he will opt for Gantz over Ben-Gvir. If Netanyahu doesn't have 61 seats, Gantz won't come on board. But if he does then that becomes a possibility for Gantz. The cost will be lower because Netanyahu won't be forced into offering him a rotation or a parity-based government. Offered the choice between staying in the role of minister of defense, while keeping Otzma Yehudit out of power, and being hung out to dry in the opposition, Gantz may well go for the first option.
That's why Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich is refusing to give Ben-Gvir equal representation on a joint list and that is the reason Ben-Gvir is demanding it. The Religious Zionist Party has under its auspices institutions, youth movements, yeshivas, and kibbutzim. Its leaders won't be willing to sit in opposition even if Netanyahu does decide to set up a government with Gantz at the expense of Otzma Yehudit. Publicly they may state that they demand a coalition based only on the parties of the Right, but they won't issue an ultimatum that they won't join a coalition without Ben Gvir. And that has no connection to whether or not they run together. "Ben-Gvir doesn't have any institutions," says a senior Religious Zionist leader. "You don't need finance to set up a party and shout at Arabs at Shimon Hatzadik. While we may prefer a right-wing government, he told me, "We won't rule out Gantz."
Smotrich made sure to belittle the representation of Otzma Yehudit in a joint list for the Knesset, not only in case Netanyahu opts for Gantz and leaves Ben-Gvir out but also because he isn't at all sure that Ben-Gvir will want to enter the government. He may prefer to remain in opposition if he feels that will strengthen him.
Ben-Gvir himself wants to keep all his cards. Whether he decides to join the government and be appointed a minister or whether he decides to stay in opposition, he needs a group of people with him that will follow him no matter what. That is why Ben-Gvir wants equal representation. He believes that if Smotrich refuses, he will be able to pass the electoral threshold on his own.
Left out on his own
The results of the Meretz and Religious Zionist Party primaries exposed the big differences between the parties. Voters in the Religious Zionist primary showed obeyance to the message of diversity and the need for a list that represents classic religious Zionism. Ofir Sofer placed first, and Simcha Rothman and Michal Waldiger were in the top four. None of the new candidates managed to break down the wall of the current MKs. Exactly the opposite happened with Meretz where new candidates pushed current MKs to the bottom of the list including the party chairman.
With the exception of Meirav Michael, none of the presently serving ministers on the left survived. Some resigned, and some were booted out by voters. The situation of the right-wingers in the current government isn't too great either. Naftali Bennett has almost completely disappeared from public view, Ayelet Shaked is fighting to cross the threshold and Gideon Saar has had to tag on to another party.
Then there is Avigdor Lieberman who is also foundering just above the threshold and is surviving only thanks to massive help from the media, which is doing its best to deny any connection between the grave economic situation and his performance as finance minister, which can be summarized as having completely surrendered to the ministry's civil servants without taking any major initiative
The price hikes, and now the astronomical interest rate increase, may have grabbed the headline, but the linkage – namely the direct connection to the government's action – is almost nonexistent as far as the media is concerned. The feeling one gets is that this is just fate, the hand of God, a global earthquake that we are powerless to stop. But this is of course pure babble. The global problems indeed exist, but the failure to address them is purely Israeli.
Lieberman as finance minister is very similar to Lieberman in the previous offices he served in as a minister. When he was foreign minister, after announcing dramatically that he would assemble the ministry's workers every day at eight in the morning on the dot and that he would act to change the "Oslo discourse" prevalent in the corridors of the ministry, he left after almost four years without leaving a mark. The eight a.m. meetings did indeed take place, but the fear that "diplomatic sources" would speak out against him led to him aligning completely with the ministry line and avoiding conflict with senior ministry echelons and even with junior employees at any cost.
It was the same at the Defense Ministry. Army chiefs said in real-time and after he stepped down that they had never come across a minister who was so absent and ineffectual. Lieberman meandered around helplessly until his early resignation to seek out another ministry.
The same pattern is now repeating itself in the finance ministry. All the programs that harm the public such as taxes on disposable utensils had already been offered to Lieberman's predecessor, Israel Katz, who threw them out unceremoniously. He on the other hand adopted them enthusiastically, as he did with the recommendation to pay back massive sum's to cover Israel's deficit, as well as tens of billions allocated to Ra'am and coalition agreements.
Even Lapid, Lieberman's long-term ally, was forced to disassociate himself, lest the stain of failure sticks to the alternate prime minister. Under the terms of the government, Lapid has no authority to intervene in Lieberman's economic policy, just as Bennett also had no such authority. But it is under Lapid's watch that casualties are falling, crumbling under the weight of the economic burden, and he was left with no choice. He tried to do so with grace, but Lieberman who faces a sensitive situation in any event – also because of his situation in the polls – took it hard.
He too understands that he has become a liability for the anti-Netanyahu bloc headed by Lapid. He has become someone not to be associated with. Not just because of the teachers' issue, but in general. Someone whose inactivity in the economic field affects the entire government's political situation at the worst possible timing on the eve of elections, and someone who will be a liability after the elections as well when it comes to forming a coalition. The ultra-Orthodox may agree to join a coalition with Lapid and Gantz, but they definitely won't join one with Lieberman.
Leading from behind
The battle for the "soft Right" which has become a battle for "classical religious Zionism" saw another development this week when Ayelet Shaked brought in a new player, Amitai Porat, the Secretary General of the Religious Kibbutz Movement, a resident of the Etzion Bloc, and the son of the late Hanan Porat, who was among the founders of the Gush Emunim (Bloc of the Faithful) movement – you can't get much more classical than that. Shaked is trying to place Bat Galim Shaer on the sixth spot on her list. She is a popular figure who gained fame in tragic circumstances when her son Gil-ad Shaer was kidnapped and murdered along with his two friends Yaakov Naftali Fraenkel and Eyal Yifrah.
Shaked is confident that her message about a unity government will work and that the electoral threshold is an achievable goal for her. Because the heads of the just–not–Bibi parties do not really have an answer to the question of what government they will form. "If Netanyahu doesn't get 61 seats, there will be changes in the Likud," Gideon Saar said earlier this week, adding, as if whispering a secret, "the Likud won't be the only part where there are changes" – a hint that the ultra-Orthodox parties could abandon the Right and join forces with Gantz. We have heard similar things from Gantz himself, as well as from Lapid, Ze'ev Elkin, and the other leaders of these parties.
But they know they are talking nonsense. Nothing will happen in the Likud If Netanyahu doesn't reach 61 seats and the ultra-Orthodox won't be going anywhere either. Certainly not on any dubious adventure with Lapid, Meretz, and Lieberman. Shaked believes that when this sinks in, the public will better understand her message about a unity government – because quite simply there won't be any other choice.
In the meantime, sources close to the Zionist Spirit say that Shaked is losing her grip, that Yoaz Hendel is getting into the thick of things and is becoming a dominant figure with almost complete control over the party's election campaign, and that Shaked is not doing anything to counter this. The sources say that sometimes Hendel only updates her after the fact and that often she just accepts them as she doesn't have the strength to change things.
The sources add that Shaked is used to being managed. That's how it was with Bennett, whom she followed to the end of the earth, and now Hendel has become her patron. He gives more interviews to the press than she does and even though she is the chairwoman his influence in the party is greater. However, they say, this has not led to any tensions between them because Shaked is fine with the situation. They attribute this to a lack of self–confidence; her confidantes attribute it to an absence of ego.
Deri's word
The ultra–Orthodox parties have already been through all the ups and downs with deaths of spiritual leaders and founding fathers. Degel HaTorah went on after the passing of Rabbi Shach, as did Shas after the death of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. Nevertheless, there are moments of uncertainty in the ultra-Orthodox leadership when there is a dramatic event such as the passing of a spiritual leader. That's how it was with the deaths of Rabbi Yosef Shalom Elyashiv and Rabbi Aharon Yehuda Leib Shteinman, and that's how it was when the head of the Shas Council of Torah Sages Rabbi Shalom Cohen transcended to the heavens this week.
Rabbi Cohen wasn't as well known or influential as Rabbi Yosef, but he was highly esteemed within the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox world and beyond. The battle to succeed him, if one can call it that, is focused on two candidates: Rabbi Shalom Baadani, a member of the Council of Torah Sages, and Sephardi Chief Rabbi, Yitzhak Yosef, the son of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef.
Neither of them will fit into the huge shoes of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef and not even into those of Rabbi Cohen. The decision over the succession will in the end fall to Aryeh Deri. Not officially of course, but behind the scenes. Whoever gets the nod will leave Deri to head the Shas leadership and will back his every decision. Neither of the two has the strength to oppose Deri. After all, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef barely could.
Rabbi Yosef is the better known of the two, and the fact that he serves as chief rabbi adds to his public appeal, particularly among the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox and traditional public. There is something about his robe that gives him a certain je ne sais quoi. Rabbi Shalom Cohen for example didn't have it, and many observers believe that affected his public image, which didn't approach that achieved by his predecessor. But to get the appointment, Yosef will have to step down as chief rabbi a year before the legal date. If Deri decides that Yosef is the one, he will force him to resign and then make the appointment, or he will freeze the situation in place for a year and Yosef will have to wait for his release.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
