George Orwell's famous book 1984 describes an apocalyptic reality that was about to happen some 38 years ago. In Israel, 1984 actually saw a positive turning point. There was an election that ended in a draw, leading to a unity government under the Likud and Labor, which was one of the best the country had ever had.
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There were two main players who forced Yitzhak Shamir and Shimon Peres to agree to the unity government – leader of the Yachad party and former Israeli Air Force commander Ezer Weizman, and then-President Chaim Herzog.
Four decades later, Herzog's son, Isaac, is the president. The legacy of his forebears is in his blood, and he lives and breathes politics. Herzog's grandfather, for whom he was named, was Israel's first chief rabbi. His uncle was the legendary foreign minister Abba Eban. His father was the public's primary contact in the government during the 1967 Six-Day War, and later Israel's ambassador to the UN. His brother, Mike, is now Israel's ambassador to Washington. Herzog himself has been active in politics since the 1990s and among roles has served as chairman of the Labor Party, Welfare Minister, and chairman of the Jewish Agency.
Seventy-five days from now, Herzog will likely find himself facing the same kind of political impasse that his father did in 1984 – a draw that in our time shut down the system over the course of four elections in three years.
The way things look now, the Lapid bloc doesn't have a majority, and is still far from being able to keep the other side from forming a government. The Netanyahu bloc is close to 60 mandates, but isn't at 61. At the moment, only a miracle will save Israel from a sixth election. Or to put it more precisely – a miracle combined with a president's determination.
There are two things that have characterized Herzog throughout all his years in public life – hard work and connections. He intends to use them to prevent politicians from pushing the country into another needless round of voting. The president thinks that even 61 mandates will not be enough to manage a stable coalition. He thinks the country needs stability, and that can only come under a government with a clear majority.
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It's still too soon to know what Herzog will do or how he will do it. Everything depends of the final results and the political mergers that can be made. What is certain is that unlike his predecessor, Reuven Rivlin, who mainly complained, Herzog will follow the path of his father. He will demand that whoever is elected behave like adults and do everything to avoid yet another election.
In his first year as president, Herzog racked up some impressive diplomatic work, effectively become Israel's primary diplomat. If it weren't for him, Israel wouldn't have reconciled with Turkey and the conflict with Russia would have reached frightening levels. He stitched together, calmed people down, and moved the people who needed to be moved to where they needed to be. His big test will be on Nov. 1, Election Day, which is also the 7th of Heshvan – the day on which according to Jewish tradition people begin to pray for rain. Herzog will try very hard to make sure the rain is a blessing.
Netanyahu knows his fate is in the hands of Shaked's voters
If we continue the comparison to 1984, the role Ezer Weizman played then, of being the one to tip the scales, is now held by Ayelet Shaked. The problem is the rules of the game. Weizman could have entered the Knesset with only two mandates, and determine fates. Shaked, even with Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser, might win two mandates, but not four. Whether she drops out or stays in the race until the end, she has the power to determine the election, because the two or so mandates worth of voters she is dangling don't like Netanyahu, but they also don't loathe him, they don't identify with Smotrich, and don't want to vote for the Left. They are secular right-wingers who voted for Bennett and won't go back to the Likud, or liberal religious voters from Gush Etzion, Modi'in, Givat Shmuel, etc.
The past few days, Netanyahu has been struggling to figure out how to reach them. In this election, for the first time since the political crisis broke out in 2019, he is being moderate and stately, stressing the value of stability, and keeping the shouters off the stage. But refraining from evil isn't enough – he must strive to do good. Will Silman bring in the undecided? Apparently not. Chikli? Not attractive enough. Chikli in a reserved spot? Maybe, but what about women and the other commitments he made about the list? Reserving spots for Shaked and Hendel on the Likud list isn't an option, the hatred of them runs too deep. So for now, the Likud is trying to erase them.
Still, Netanyahu should bring the "floating votes," as they used to be called, home to his own camp. Without them, he doesn't have a government. A word from Shaked could influence which way they wind up going.
