Last week, a Syrian ship was allowed to leave the Lebanese port of Tripoli despite claims by Ukraine that it was carrying grain stolen by invading Russian forces. The Laodicea was docked in the port for almost a week with some 10,000 tons of barley and flour that Kyiv said was plundered from Ukrainian stores. And yet, Lebanese authorities issued a release order, claiming that an investigation ruled out the possibility of the goods having been stolen.
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And so the ship sailed off to Syria, leaving the possibility of jeopardizing one of the main import routes to Lebanon in its wake. The nation is one most affected by inflation, which exacerbated further by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although Moscow and Kyiv's grain agreement is a silver lining, a weakening of ties between Lebanon and Ukraine could prove fatal for the Mideast country.
And the situation was not great in Lebanon to begin with, evidenced by the collapse of Beirut's grain silos precisely two years after an explosion rocked the port, killing 218, injuring thousands, and causing damage to surrounding buildings. But corruption seeps so deep in Lebanon that the politicians who were tapped to investigate the affair refused to cooperate. The commission of inquiry itself was rejected repeatedly.
Unfortunately for them, Lebanese politicians shifted focus to a new matter: the maritime border dispute with Israel. The establishment of an Israeli gas field prompted Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to give a series of heated addresses reminiscent of those he gave during the elections.
And yet, according to reports from Beirut, Lebanon's trick worked and the proposal presented by US mediators included a significant retreat by Israel. And it that wasn't enough, Lebanese officials also claimed that Israel had given up its entire portion of the Qana field, a potential oil area.
The extreme compromise seems to stem from a fear of a limited confrontation with Hezbollah, which may incorrectly assess Israel's response to its provocations.
Let us not forget that Lebanon will probably do no better even if it receives all of Qana and all of its border demands.
First, because there is a great chance that the searches will not turn up anything, as happened in the past in Lebanese waters. Second, such drilling work could take years, while Lebanon needs quick solutions to solve its economic crisis. And third, because corruption is so entrenched in Lebanon that even if Beirut gains some profits speedily, it will end up in the politicians' pockets.
As such, even if Israel decides to compromise, the threat from the north is unlikely to disappear in the near future. At most, it will be delayed by a few months. In fact, Nasrallah is already looking for other excuses.
We heard that the Israelis are planning to eliminate senior Palestinian officials. If this happens in Lebanon – every attack will be met with a response, he recently said in a speech.
In other words, even with an oil deal, Nasrallah will look for other ways to incite against Israel to escape the wrath of the Lebanese.
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