Israel chose to launch Operation Breaking Dawn with an advantage: instead of waiting for a move by the Islamic Jihad movement, the IDF attacked first and killed Tayseer al-Jabari, the organization's military commander in northern Gaza Strip.
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It seems that authorization for the killing was given already earlier this week, and was waiting for a suitable operational opportunity.
During this time, the IDF ensured a strong defense around the Gaza Strip, to prevent casualties and, at the same time, deployed forces in the area and dispersed elements of defense – mainly Iron Dome batteries – also in other areas (including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem), in order to prepare for the possibility that the killing would lead to a wide escalation of fighting.
The choice of Jabari was not accidental. He was one of the extreme activists in the Gaza Strip and led a militant line similar to his predecessor, Baha Abu al-Ata, who was killed in November 2019, during Operation Black Belt. Even then, the killing escalated into several days of battle, which included massive rocket fire from Gaza – until a ceasefire was reached.
The main achievement of Operation Black Belt was keeping Hamas out of the escalation cycle and focusing activity on the Islamic Jihad. This is also Israel's current target, so yesterday's activity focused on the Islamic Jihad; after Jabari was killed, several of the organization's facilities and launchers were also damaged, but the IDF was careful not to harm Hamas and even sent it clear messages that if its men did not join the fighting, Israel would be careful not to harm it in the future.
Israel hopes that Hamas will indeed refrain from activity. In recent days, the organization has made sure to convey messages that they have no interest in escalation and has even attempted (and failed) to curb the Islamic Jihad. But yesterday the organization's spokesmen said that they would participate in the response to the killing. If this does happen, the round of fighting that was launched yesterday may end up being even longer and more violent, and may also include Hamas targets – from infrastructure facilities and reinforcements to the headquarters and heads of the organization.
The 15 months that have passed since Operation Guardian of the Walls have been the quietest in the South in recent years, but the past week marked a change in this atmosphere. It began with the arrest of Bassem al-Saadi, commander of the Islamic Jihad, who was captured on Monday in Jenin, in what culminated of a wave of arrests that has been underway in northern Samaria in recent months.
The organization's activists in the West Bank pressured the Gaza headquarters to respond to the arrest, both in an attempt to renew the deterrence that would prevent the IDF from continuing its activities in the West Bank. This led to the decision – under Jabari's command – to find an Israeli target and snipe it with an anti-tank missile. This was also the reason for the level of high alert and partial closure imposed in the last few days on the Gaza belt communities, in an attempt to avoid casualties.
At the same time, the IDF began to prepare for the attack. Plans were already approved on Thursday and were reconfirmed yesterday during Defense Minister Benny Gantz's visit to the Southern Command. They included both the initial move, but also advanced plans, which will largely depend on the nature and scope of the Islamic Jihad's response and, as mentioned, also on the chance of Hamas joining the fighting.
The IDF is currently focusing its activities on rocket and missile launching squads, but the next stage expected to be much more violent. In order to deter the forces in the Gaza Strip from an extensive response (or in order to limit it), photographs of the deployment at the Gaza Strip border were published yesterday, and the possible expansion of the operation – including the mobilization of reserves – was also announced. The message to Gaza is clear: Israel is not afraid of escalation, and is preparing for it.
The ball is now in Gaza's court. The nature of the response that will come – and will come – will determine the nature of the IDF's response, and so forth. At the same time as this expected scenario, for which the IDF is prepared and its plans are approved, Israel must ensure seven more key issues:
The first is a strong defense in the Gaza belt communities, which will prevent the terrorist organizations from achieving immediate gains. The Gaza Division succeeded in this during Operation Guardian of the Walls, and this is its current mission now as well.
The second is to convey sharp and clear messages to the wider public, to prevent complacency that could lead to unnecessary casualties to the home front command. The public is required to maintain a level of discipline, which, however necessary as part of the war effort, it does not always excel at.
The third is a permanent outlook to the northern sector. There is a significant number of Palestinians in Syria and Lebanon and many weapons. During Operation Guardian of the Walls (and also afterward) rockets were launched from Lebanon to Israel, and this may happen now again, certainly due to the setup of an organized Hamas military arm in the refugee camps in Lebanon. Israel must make it clear to the Lebanese government and also to Hezbollah that any such attack will result in a severe response, even if it means escalation on several fronts.
The fourth is to keep the inner regions in constant view. The mixed cities are, in fact, quiet, but any escalation in the Gaza Strip – certainly if there are casualties on its side – could set the civil conflicts on fire again. In order to prevent this, the military must maintain ongoing communication with the leadership in local authorities, but also advance security preparation, especially by the police.
The fifth is a political and informative international campaign that will follow the military operation and give Israel legitimacy for managing it in the future as well. The world will surely perceive Israel as "the one who started it," and its leaders must make it clear that Israel acted in self-defense against those who are determined to harm it. At the same time, it must use every possible channel and means – mainly through Egypt, the US and Qatar – to influence Hamas to shorten the duration of the escalation and calm the winds of war.
The sixth is providing assistance to the residents of the Gaza belt communities – financially and mentally – as they are the ones who have mainly carried the burden in the last days, and will continue to do so during the coming days of fighting. This is the government's most important role, and it must be seen and implemented as part of ensuring national resilience.
The seventh is leaving politics aside. Too much political slime has been poured into social networks in the past few days. Some of the more established media channels have also resorted to means of gross irresponsibility. All politicians are now expected to put the election campaign aside just for a moment, and remember that there are things that are beyond politics – and life is at the forefront.
Ensuring that all these are coordinated will ensure better results for the military operation, which is expected to last at least a few days. One can hope that during this time the IDF and the General Security Services (GSS) will also have luck, allowing them to pinpoint quality targets in Gaza and prevent unnecessary damage to innocent civilians. Even though Operation Breaking Dawn was imposed on Israel – which is always looking for ways to preserve calm in the South and not escalate the situation – from the moment it was launched, this operation must be used not only to significantly damage the terrorist organizations, infrastructures, activists and military forces, but also to once again strengthen deterrence, and guarantee long term peace for the residents of the South.
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