The Egyptian president is troubled. Two of the world's top wheat exporters – Russia and Ukraine – are locked in a bloody war, and manufacturing costs are steadily rising.
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The price of a loaf of bread, which is subsidized by the state, has risen from 75 cents to one Egyptian lira. This has put President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in a jam: Millions of Egyptians will struggle to feed their children, or the national budget will be further strained.
Last month marked nine years since el-Sissi's rise to power. The former army officer waited patiently in the weeds as now-deceased former president Mohamed Morsi dismissed former field marshal Hussein Tantawi. Morsi, a representative of the Muslim Brotherhood, had appointed Tantawi as defense minister and chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, perhaps thinking he would not pose a threat to him. Morsi was proven wrong: Around a year later, massive street protests erupted, and el-Sissi issued an ultimatum that resulted in a military coup.
El-Sissi learned the lesson. In recent weeks he has met with a host of Gulf state leaders to shore up generous financial support for the Egyptian economy. Additionally, Arab news outlets have reported a swift overhaul of the Egyptian army's high command, in which, among other moves, the commander of the Second Field Army was replaced. With that, these moves could also have stemmed from the military's failures in the war against the Islamic State group in the Sinai Peninsula.
The Arab Spring also provided el-Sissi with a roadmap. The demonstrations that erupted in late 2010 in Tunisia and spread accross the region were sparked by the tensions between the proponents of political Islam and conservative regimes. For years, the former had been supported by Qatar and Turkey. Ankara and Doha, however, each for their own reasons, are gradually returning to the moderate Sunni fold.
El-Sissi was happy to welcome Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani last month in Cairo. It won't be long before he meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well. For el-Sissi, in his goal of isolating the Muslim Brotherhood, the ends justify the means.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, meanwhile, has his own list of concerns. Some 40% of the Saudi population is under the age of 30. If he doesn't tend to their well being, they could rebel against him and demand political rights. This is doubly true regarding the Shiite population in the country's north, which already rebelled in 2011.
Amid this backdrop, the crown prince has laid out his vision for 2030 and has begun feeding the public Western dreams. The man who was shunned by the West following the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul is awaiting the passing of his 86-year-old father.
The Saudi public could possibly exploit the time between the king's passing and Bin Salman's coronation to demand rights?
Although the military summit in Sharm el-Sheikh in March and el-Sissi's and Bin Salman's diplomatic efforts have been presented as an attempt to form a front against Iran, these endeavors are motivated by more primal concerns.
The rise in food costs could revive the Arab Spring from its slumber. There's no doubt that the threat from Iran is real, from drones capable of hitting oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, to ballistic missiles, and the race to a nuclear bomb. It seems, however, that the true engine behind the normalization process with Israel is the "enemy" from within. Without close cooperation, these rulers' thrones are at risk.
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