The coalition is gearing up for what may be a fateful week. Alongside rebel MKs Mazen Ghaniam of Ra'am and Ghaida Rinawie Zoabie of Meretz, all political eyes are on Yamina MK Ori Orbach. [Formerly?) A good friend of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Orbach could determine the fate of the government and pull Bennett out of the Prime Minister's Office.
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Orbach announced his resignation from the coalition last week but made clear he would give the government another week in which he would not vote to dissolve the Knesset. Orbach, who spent the weekend up north on vacation, is weighing voting on a bill to dissolve the Knesset at a preliminary reading this Wednesday.
Orbach's goal is to promote the dissolution of the Knesset to pressure Bennett and Justice Minister and New Hope party head Gideon Sa'ar. If they don't enter negotiations to establish a right-wing government in the current Knesset, Israel will head to elections. Orbach's main consideration in promoting the Knesset's dissolution is the fact that as the chairman of the House Committee, he will control the pace at which the legislation advances and will not drag Israel to another election if he doesn't want to. Sa'ar and Bennett refuse to reward Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and the chances of establishing a right-wing government in the current Knesset are unlikely.
Orbach, however, has yet to make a decision on the matter. Yamina members are pressuring him to avoid dragging Israel into another round of elections, claiming that even the passage of a bill to dissolve the Knesset in a preliminary reading would set in motion election-style dynamics that would be hard to stop. The fact that Orbach does not want to replace Bennett with Foreign Minister and Prime Minister-designate Yair Lapid is one consideration in the former's mind.
Likud party members will not promote the bill to dissolve the Knesset unless they are sure Orbach will either vote with them or abstain to ensure it passes.
Meanwhile, Orbach and his fellow Yamina faction member Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked convened an open discussion on the situation with close associates, among them key Yamina activists and members of Habayit Hayehudi.
Apart from the bill to dissolve the Knesset, the coalition is pressed for time to advance an emergency regulations bill for Judea and Samaria. The opposition has no intentions of conceding on the issue and has announced plans to vote against the Judea and Samaria bill even if it is brought to the floor again on Monday. Rinawie Zoabi and Ghaniaim, both opponents of the bill, have not changed their minds either. In the absence of a majority, it looks like the coalition will refrain from bringing the bill to a vote this week.
The coalition has until June 30 to pass the emergency regulations. A failure to do so will result in judicial chaos in Judea and Samaria. To contend with the regulations' possible expiration, government ministries have begun to look into legal alternatives, but government members still hope to bring about the firing of both Ghanaim and Rinawie Zoabi to stabilize the coalition and perhaps convince Orbach to pass the Judea and Samaria regulations bill and return to the coalition.
But this is looking less likely with each day that passes. The coalition and opposition parties have begun to organize in preparation for elections, conducting internal polling and meeting with political strategists. One senior coalition member said: "If the Knesset's dissolution is a done deal by June 30, we'll pass the Judea and Samaria regulations together with the opposition and head to elections."
Meanwhile, according to Knesset documentation from just a few days ago, 108 bills are now in limbo due to the lack of a coalition majority. The legislation includes compensation for the self-employed for damage to their business caused by government efforts to combat the coronavirus, religious legislation, and other bills that would normally garner automatic support from the Knesset, like exemptions from military service for religious women.
The assessment is that without a majority, the coalition will be forced to pull a majority of legislative proposals set to be introduced on Monday.
With elections in the air, citizens and organizations from all sides of the political spectrum held demonstrations on Saturday night. Right-wing organizations calling for Orbach to break up the government demonstrated in front of the Yamina lawmaker's home. Another demonstration in support of the coalition government was held in Tel Aviv, and banners supporting the so-called "change and unity government" were hung from bridges across the country.
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