The main conclusion we can draw from this week's meeting of governors of the International Atomic Agency in Vienna is that the Iran nuclear deal is dead, at least for now. The funeral has yet to be scheduled, and it can still be artificially revived, but for that to happen, at least two conditions would need to be in place that at the moment appear highly unlikely.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
The first condition would be to close the IAEA's four open files against Iran, which deal with four suspected cases of illicit Iranian nuclear activity, for which no explanation has been provided. The first one (Turquz Abad) addresses undeclared fissile material discovered at the site. The second (metallic uranium) has to deal with a disc of uranium found at the Levizan facility. The third case (Varamin) deals with traces of uranium and conversion activity. The fourth (Marivan) discusses the discovery of traces of uranium and banned weaponization activity.
Some of these files were opened due to IAEA oversight. Others were opened after interested countries supplied intelligence. The Iranians, of course, deny everything, but suspended visits at some sites until they could clean them up, and prevented visits to others. They have never supplied convincing explanations about the findings, which led the IAEA to condemn them this week – but not hand the material over to the UN Security Council, thus negating any possibility of practical steps being taken against Iran.
The Iranians demanded that the cases be closed as a precondition for their return to the nuclear deal. The second condition they demanded was a full removal of sanctions, including the sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The Biden administration refused, and has made it clear that it will not revisit that refusal. Assuming that the Iranians do not show any flexibility, as they are unlikely to do, and without the Americans adopting a tougher stance, all sides find themselves in an interim period, treading uncertain water.
A well-known, worn-out bazaar
Even before the IAEA published its condemnation, the Iranians rushed to decry it. They shut off two of the organization's surveillance cameras that tracked uranium enrichment at one site, without specifying whether they were located at Fordo or Natanz. The Iranians will probably take additional steps designed to should their nuclear activity in a thicker fog.
It's a well-known, played-out bazaar, but doesn't indicate that Iran is ready to go past the point of no return. Unlike North Korea, which wants to remain isolated, Iran has an interest in joining the rest of the world – selling, buying, influencing, living. It can do none of these if it takes any radical action that will make it the target of more sanctions and threats. So it's playing nuclear brinksmanship, but doesn't mean to cross the line.
This situation should give the Americans a chance to apply pressure, threaten Iran, to exert influence. It's not certain that Iran would feel the stress and give in, but the Americans gave up before even trying. Biden announced the US would not exert force, or apply any additional sanctions. So what, then? It will strengthen ties with US allies in the region, first and foremost Israel, from military force-building to cooperation on diplomatic, military, and intelligence matters.
The administration's main focus at the moment is Saudi Arabia. More precisely, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Washington would like to see fully normalized relations between the Saudis and the Israelis, but that's not going to happen any time soon. But as Israel Hayom reported this week, Israel has agreed to transfer sovereignty over the Red Sea islands Tiran and Sanafir form Egypt to Saudi Arabia in exchange for the Saudis allowing all Israeli flights to use their airspace. Israel also wants direct flights to Mecca for Muslim pilgrims, but the Saudis aren't crazy about the idea.
Ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia are better than is widely known, but not as good as they could be. The number of Israelis who have visited the kingdom in the past few years has grown, which Israel Hayom also reported, and this week several things happened behind closed doors as part of an attempt to reach a breakthrough. Israel wants one, of course, but the Saudis are hesitant, which is only to be expected given the generation gap between King Salman and his old guard and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The older generation will probably not agree to any leap forward, but only to slow, baby-step progress.
If the gambit works, it will be a diplomatic coup for Biden going into the US midterm elections, and also for the Bennett government, which is fighting for survival. Anyone who claimed this week that Biden postponed his planned visit to Israel because of the local political situation wanted that to be the case. But the Americans act in their own self-interest, primarily the desire for the Saudis to increase their oil production, bringing down prices. If a deal is made, it would be wonderful news for Israel. It would mean not only closer ties with the biggest, richest, and most important Gulf state, but also a closer regional alliance – open and secret – with major backing from the US. Of course, no will say "Iran" out loud, but to all intents and purposes, the Iranians – and the threat they and their satellites pose to the region – are a main part of the glue holding the new partners together.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
It won't lead to a military coalition against Iran, like the one that operated against Iraq (or the Islamic State), but it will lead to coordination on various strategic matters, from joint drills – some of which are already happening, both on and off the radar – to sharing intelligence, to solutions to joint problems. One example of this is the regional defense system against missiles and drones that will increase coordination between the countries in the region as well as their defensive capabilities against these and other threats.
Exposure should be discussed
When it comes to the military side of offensive actions against Iran, Israel will remain on its own. The Americans aren't interested, and others lack either the courage or the ability, and Israel has no choice. This means continued operations against all the Iranian projects and officials, which will be carried out in ways ranging from airstrikes to targeted killings, and even reach anonymous attacks on physical sites and leadership.
A few of these actions have made headlines in the past few weeks. The mystery deaths of at least five Iranians involved in the country's nuclear program, weapons manufacturing, or IRGC terrorism apparatus, created the impression that we are in the midst of an intensive campaign that indicates a change of tactic. Bennett more than hinted at that when he said that Israel was hitting not only the tentacles but also the head of the Iranian octopus, and a series of foreign reports blamed the actions on Israel.
It's not certain that Israel is indeed behind all these actions, but their exposure should be discussed. Apart from the political benefit, making them public can sometimes be effective in deterring the enemy and sowing fear in their ranks. Sometimes, it can't be avoided, as when there is no other way of thwarting a planned attack or when there is a desire to stain a certain country or entity.
On the other hand, these reports also pose a certain danger. Not only do they tip the enemy off about methods and allow them to up their guard, but also increase the chance of retaliatory actions. In a region in which "honor" and "power" are key words, repeatedly spitting in the Iranians' face will certainly lead to a response. Assuming that offensive activity against them continues, and possibly even increases, it will likely have to come under the mantra of the Shin Bet security agency: "The unseen [and unheard] shield."
