Lebanon began its parliamentary elections on Sunday morning with the Lebanese public flocking to the polls to determine the future leader of the land of cedars.
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"I have heard people say that voting for the Free Patriotic Movement means voting for Hezbollah," the leader of the country's biggest Christian bloc and long-standing ally of the Shiite terror group, Gebran Bassil, said over the weekend.
In an attempt to defend himself, Bassil suggested that voting for rival Lebanese Forces would be tantamount to voting for the Islamic State, Israel, and "their regional allies."
Accusations of "collaboration" with Israel have become a popular tool in Lebanese elections. Ironically, Bassil himself faced backlash earlier for having mentioned in an interview that he would be glad if Lebanon and Israel reached normalization. Hezbollah did not back him in this. Nevertheless, Bassil made sure to specify that such an agreement would be conditioned on Israel meeting Lebanon's "conditions," such as disengagement from Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights.
The specification did not help, and social media erupted with ire against Bassil, son-in-law of Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who has been accused of corruption for years.
It is too early to say whether the scandal will have an impact on the election results, but what is clear is that Bassil's Free Patriotic Movement is fighting the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces for the same seats.
According to Lebanon's parliamentary seat allocation, half of the 128 seats go to Christian lawmakers, of which 34 go to Maronite Christians. A possible defeat by the Free Patriotic Movement would make it difficult for the Hezbollah camp to form a government.
This is where the second half of the parliamentary seats come into the picture, of which 64 go to Muslims (27 to Sunnis, 27 to Shiites, 8 to Druze, and 2 to Alawite lawmakers). What can disrupt plans is the lack of a clear Sunni leader in the elections.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned from politics in January amid accusations by Hezbollah, and his brother, Bahaa Hariri, on whom all hope was pinned, will not run in the elections either. Hence, the Sunni bloc arrives at the polls divided.
Shiite Hezbollah is well-positioned to capitalize on the situation, even in case of a defeat by the Maronite bloc.
In any case, the estimate is that even if Hezbollah loses the elections, it will explore other venues to maintain its hegemony. One such example is the prevention of the formation of a new government, which will allow the current coalition – made up of Hezbollah allies – to continue to rule de facto for many more months.
Half a year ago, the Iraqi election heralded the defeat of the pro-Iranian camp. And yet, so far the Shiite current that opposes the regime has been unable to form a coalition. History has shown that Iran is not willing to give up its influence easily, not even in Lebanon.
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