The Knesset on Monday embarked on its summer session, ending a politically charged recess marked by turmoil in the ruling party, as Yamina MK Idit Silman stepped down as coalition chair and MK Amichai Chikli was declared a rogue lawmaker and ousted from Yamina's ranks.
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The political situation was further rattled by the wave of terror that has reared its in early March, so far claiming the lives of 17 Israelis.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and PM-designate Yair Lapid have been working to stabilize the coalition but while they present a unified front publicly, behind the scenes a clear political conflict of interest is emerging that may affect the entire political picture.
With a concrete threat of early elections looming over the government, mostly over the fact that Ra'am appears to be ready to bolt the coalition at any moment, the question of who will serve as prime minister in a transitional government is taking center stage.
While according to the power-sharing agreement between Bennett and Lapid the latter is slated to assume the premiership in August 2023, a snap elections will render that hollow.
The coalition agreement states that two MKs from the "Bennett bloc" – Yamina and New Hope – have to vote in favor of the Knesset's dissolution for Lapid to become the transitional prime minister.
With Chikli no longer relevant with this respect, as he has already expressed no confidence in the government, it would take another Yamina or New Hope MK to exit the coalition for this scenario to materialize.
However, if the coalition falls over Ra'am's exit, Bennett will be able to remain in office, which would give him the inherent advantage of being the incumbent during the election campaign.
Another question is, what will Defense Minister Benny Gantz do? Blue and White's leader had remained something of an outsider in the coalition and sees himself as deserving of the prime minister's seat.
During the previous government, Gantz had struck a power-sharing deal with then-PM Benjamin Netanyahu, but as the government dissolved in under a year, the deal never came to fruition.
Political insiders told Israel Hayom that Gantz can find a sophisticated way to push the government over the edge without shouldering the blame. All he has to do is order "right-wing" defense measures that would be too much for Ra'am or Meretz to deal with for one of them to buckle and exit the coalition or – alternatively – he could halt all settlement construction or the eviction of settlements, which would drive the right-wing parties to move to disband the coalition.
This could, however, backfire: Center-Left bloc voters could resent Gantz for bringing about early elections and express their frustration in the ballot, which could result on a win for Likud. Gantz has said to associates that he views Netanyahu as "harmful to Israel" and would now afford him the opportunity to be elected again if he can help it.
Over in the Likud, the party is reportedly conflicted on whether to trigger a snap election or try to form an alternative coalition during the current Knesset term.
Netanyahu would prefer the latter, while MK Yariv Levin argues that the former would be best.
The formation of a government in the current Knesset has particularly low chances. This move would requires the opposition to win a constructive no-confidence vote, to which its members would have to show up a fully-formed replacement government ready to be installed.
Netanyahu currently lacks the necessary majority in the opposition to push the mover, mostly over the Joint Arab List's objections.
In terms of a transitional government, Likud would prefer to see Lapid as the prime minister during the election campaign. Yesh Atid's leader is something of a "red flag" for many Likud and right-wing voters, and his tenure could drive up turnout at the polls in favor of the right-wing bloc.
Meanwhile, political sources noted on Sunday that political instability and particularly elections, could see US President Joe Biden postpone his visit to Israel, currently slated to take place in June.
The visit is expected to take place around the same time as the G7 summit, set to begin on June 26. The American president is expected to visit Israel either just before or just after the summit.
The US delegation involved in preparations for the visit completed its meetings in Israel over the weekend and returned to Washington without setting a final date for Biden's arrival.
Talks between Jerusalem and DC officials over the visit are ongoing, but elections could bring them to a halt. US leaders traditionally refrain from visiting countries during elections so as not to appear as endorsing any of the parties vying for votes.
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