Israel's assessment about the chances of a new nuclear deal between Iran and the West have taken an abrupt turn, with two diplomatic officials telling Israel Hayom that it now appears that the chances a new deal will be signed are "slim to none."
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The officials stressed that while a surprise could still come in the form of a new deal being signed, "The possibility that the sides will sign a deal in the foreseeable future is shrinking exponentially."
Until a month ago, the prevailing assessment in Israel diplomatic and security apparatuses was that the US and Iran would proceed to ink the deal under discussion. This belief was based on the US administration's enthusiasm to go back to the 2015 JCPOA, to which many current members of the administration were signatories. During negotiations, the US has made numerous concessions to Iran, prompting two senior members of the US negotiating team to resign.
A draft version of a new agreement was already submitted, and it appeared likely that a date would be announced for the signing, but the parties last left Vienna to await an answer from Tehran. Iran neither announced that it was rejecting the deal or adopting it, but rather set out a number of new conditions, including a demand that the US remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps from its list of terrorist entities.
The US considered acquiescing to the request, but that sparked pushback. High-ranking Democrats took a stance against the step, and the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) signed 45 American generals on a petition opposing the idea of removing the IRGC from the government's terrorist list.
Israel, too, campaigned against the concession. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid issued a rare statement, and Bennett repeated Jerusalem's position in a phone conversation with US President Joe Biden. Bennett's diplomatic advisor Shimrit Meir also held a series of meetings with high-ranking officials in the US administration.
Israel Hayom has learned that in addition to the official talks in Vienna, the Iranians and the Biden administration were in under-the-radar contact to see if they could move closer. One option raised was to keep the IRGC's Quds Force on the US list of terrorist entities while removing the Revolutionary Guards as a whole. However, these quiet talks failed, and Iran even laid out new demands.
Given that both sides are digging in their heels, Israel now thinks that the chances of a new nuclear deal being signed are very slight.
"Iran is making more and more demands, and the US is facing domestic difficulties, so the more time passes, the less chance there is of a deal," a diplomatic official said.
This week, National Security Advisor Dr. Eyal Haluta left for the US for a round of meetings. A high-ranking functionary told Israel Hayom that the purpose of Haluta's trip is to coordinate for a scenario in which no nuclear deal is signed.
This represents a change in Israel's position, which has been that a new deal was only a matter of time. Now Israel expects that the US and the other signatories to the deal will step up diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran to force it to stop its progress toward nuclear weapons and check its regional aggression.
The Israeli officials emphasized that while a new nuclear deal was not off the table completely, the working assumption was now that none would be signed. The officials expressed satisfaction at the development. Earlier this week, Lapid told members of the press that he "wouldn't be sorry" if no new Iran deal were signed.
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