As the decade-long war in Syria approaches and end, the IDF has identified a new threat resulting from demographic changes and the significant increase of the Shiite and Alawite Muslim populations in Syria.
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The concern is that as the distress of Syrian civilians increases, Iran and Hezbollah will exploit the situation to recruit Shiite youth, like they did in Lebanon.
Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to be trying to restore his country to the independent status it held prior to the war. In the past year and a half, Assad seems to have been "reborn," and has control over more than 60% of the territory he controlled prior to 2011. Control over the rest of Syria is divided between Turkey, the Kurds (with support from the US), and the rebels, who still retain a hold on a major district of Idlib.
Apart from the territorial changes, the war also caused demographic shifts. In 2011, Syria was home to 21.3 million residents – 59% Sunni Muslims, 11% Alawite Muslims, and only 4% Shiites. However, the territory currently under Assad's control is home to only 10 million people, with Shiite Muslims making up 10% of the population and Alawites 30%. In other words, if Alawites accounted for some 15% of the Syrian population a decade ago, they now account for some 40% of the population in areas under Assad's control.
Many of the Shiite Muslims in Syria live in the southern part of the country – the Syrian Golan Heights on the border with Israel. The villages Qarfa and Sayyidah Zaynab are homes to large Shiite communities of thousands of residents.
The village Sasa is home to a mid-sized Shiite community of several dozen to a few hundred residents, and eight other villages in the area are home to smaller Shiite enclaves. On the whole, the Shiite population there is increasing.
Meanwhile, as the war nears an end, civilian distress is growing. Young people are leaving Syria, and poverty is rife.
Past experience has taught us that terrorist instigators are able to take advantage of civilian distress through charity organizations that provide food and fuel, thus winning the people's hearts. This is how Hezbollah operated in Lebanon and what Hamas does in the Gaza Strip.
Unsurprisingly, Iran is trying to use the situation in Syria to its own advantage, not necessarily with the assent of Assad, who opted for Russia as his ally in the war rather than Iran.
Iran's terrorist operations have a fertile recruiting ground in the Syrian Shiite population, and according to Israeli estimates, a few hundred individuals have already been recruited by Hezbollah or Iran and its satellites.
It's not certain whether the Israeli defense and security establishment is fully aware of the demographic trends under way. They could become more significant with time, and turn into a problem that will pose a threat to northern Israel. If indeed this scenario comes to pass, the north of the country will find itself surrounded by Hezbollah on the Lebanese border and Shiites on the border with Syria.
Effectively, thanks to major ongoing activity by the IDF, Iran is having difficulty gaining a military foothold in Syria, and terrorist activity is being thwarted from the air or on the ground.
Near the border, the 210th Bashan Division, under the command of Brig. Gen. Roman Gofman, is spearheading the battle, waging cross-border raids and firing at terrorist infrastructure and Syrian army posts that violate the terms of the separation of forces agreement signed between Israel and Syria in 1974.
Regular ground forces, including infantry and armored troops, also carry out actions across the border. Generally, these are led by platoon commanders. This serves an additional purpose in strengthening the junior command echelon of the IDF.
This past year, a number of raids and several dozen ambushes were conducted, which led to the arrests of some 15 Syrians who infiltrated the border, some for hostile purposes.
Apart from the military activity, if the top military brass realizes that the demographic changes comprise a real threat, it will likely be possible to carry out strategic actions to combat it. This could include taking advantage of the fact that Assad himself is not pleased with Iran's presence in his country.
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