Starting two weeks from now, the security establishment will be counting down the 30 days of Ramadan. Throughout the years, the holiest month of the Muslim calendar has become a month of unrest and violence.
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"The four terrorist attacks that took place in and around Jerusalem this week – two stabbing incidents in Hizmeh and two more stabbing incidents at Temple Mount gates – could be a preview of another bloody month like the Ramadan months we've seen here in the past decades," senior security officials warned.
This year, things are even more sensitive – Ramadan begins on Sunday, April 3, and will end on Sunday, May 1. This month includes the week of Passover, when Jews flock to Jerusalem and the Old City, and thousands visit the Temple Mount. Meanwhile, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arabs of Israel intend to mark the one-year anniversary of the violence of May 2021, which saw rioting in mixed cities during Operation Guardian of the Walls. And if that weren't enough, Ramadan this year ends right around Independence Day, which some Arab Israelis mark as Nakba Day.
The profile of many of the Ramadan attackers is familiar from years gone by, and security officials say it isn't impossible that attacks this year could also follow a similar formula and be carried out by single young people, high school graduates who find themselves unemployed or working to make ends meet. They are not officially affiliated with Hamas, have no record of terrorist activity, and are not necessarily from a devout religious background, but the Ramadan atmosphere – the prayers, the fast, the incitement at mosques – puts them into a state of religious ecstasy and propels them to act.
Ramadan attackers, security officials warn, generally start off with a certain level of ethno-religious motivation. Often, the attacker, influenced by incitement in sermons or on social media, is also prompted by personal troubles that play a key role in their decisions. These could be money problems, a broken heart, a family squabble, a poor relationship with their parents or spouse, etc. The attacker cannot find a solution to their distress, so they decide to end their lives as martyrs in a "heroic" terrorist attack, thereby elevating the status of their relatives in Palestinian society.
The late Dr. Reuven Erlich, who served as director of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, would refer to attacks like these as "grassroots attacks on steroids," what is known by the whitewashed Arabic term "popular resistance." The unaffiliated attackers are usually armed with a knife, a car, or a Molotov cocktail. More rarely, they use guns, mostly Carlo rifles, which are made in underground weapons workshops in Judea and Samaria or east Jerusalem.
The month of jihad and victories
In the past few years, the month of Ramadan has seen hundreds of terrorist attacks and attempted ones. The most famous were the shooting at the Sarona compound in Tel Aviv; the abduction and kidnapping of three teenagers in 2014, which led to Operation Protective Edge; and the murder of Hillel Ariel, 13, in her bed while she slept.
Last year, before the rioting of May and the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Adnan Abu Amar, a Palestinian political science lecturer at Al-Uma University in the Gaza Strip published an article on Al-Jazeera. Abu Amar wrote that in Islamic history, the month of Ramadan was seen as a month of jihad and victories, and that Palestinian terrorist organizations took advantage of the religious-spiritual atmosphere of the holiday and its legacy of battles and victors to encourage jihadist activity against Israeli targets.
The article, which was published by MEMRI and has since been adopted by the Shin Bet security agency as instructional material, cites a number of Islamic historical events, all of which, the writer claims, took place during Ramadan or close to it and provide inspiration to "the Palestinian resistance."
Even prior to the founding of Israel, Ramadan was a month characterized by violence. Zeev Jabotinsky's personal secretary, the Jewish writer Arthur Koestler, once described the behavior of Muslim religious figures and their influence on the masses during the holiday. He discussed the many attacks on Jews in the 1920s, and wrote that the Muslim clerics of his time "would on average call twice a year for holy bloodshed. During Ramadan, a nice, peace-seeking Arab landlord would joke with his Jewish tenants, then go to the mosque, listen to the preacher, and then run home to slaughter the tenant, his wife, and their children with a kitchen knife…"
In our times, too, clerics spread hatred, incitement, and motivation to carry out attacks, especially during Ramadan. In the last few days, Israel has decided to keep any cleric caught inciting away from the Temple Mount. Specifically, security officials will be keeping tabs on Sheikh Ikrama Sabri, head of the Supreme Muslim Council, who has a long history of incitement and who during the Second Intifada expressed indirect support for suicide bombings and is now identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey. The Israel Police will also have eyes on "Sheikh al Aqsa," Raed Salah, who is head of the outlawed Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement and was only recently released from prison. Salah, also an arch-inciter, was behind the Murabitun and Murabitat groups, who were assigned to harass Jewish visitors to the Temple Mount. A few weeks ago, the police placed him under a travel ban, but he is still allowed to enter the Temple Mount.
Another problematic character is Mssab Abu Arqoub, from the Hebron region, one of the leaders of Hizb ut-Tahrir. Last week, he arrived at the Temple Mount without permission and called on the armies of Islam to do battle against the state of Israel. His fellow movement member Sheikh Issam Amira, who last week praised a Muslim who beheaded a French man, has already been ordered to keep away from the Mount. Hizb ut-Tahrir is a radical Islamist group, which like Islamic State seeks to reestablish an Islamic caliphate. The group has support in many sectors of east Jerusalem. The security establishment is divided about whether or not it should be outlawed, as it was in Egypt, Turkey, and Germany. The Shin Bet, for example, is concerned that if the movement is made illegal and goes underground, it would be much harder to track its members and thwart the dangers it poses.
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'Balance' visits by Jews
The Israel Police are saying that apart from the lone-wolf terrorists that could strike during Ramadan, targets in recent years have been Haredi and religious Zionist Jews, as well as police and IDF soldiers. The reason is twofold: first, these targets are at the front line of the struggle to defend Jewish control of Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, which Palestinian nationalism would like to see end. Second, these targets allow the attackers to ensure that they are striking Jews, rather than mistakenly targeting Arabs. A few years ago, two young Arab girls stabbed an elderly Arab man with scissors after mistaking him for a Jew.
Ahead of Ramada, four points in Jerusalem have been singled out for special emphasis and preparations: Damascus Gate, Sheikh Jarrah/Shimon Hatzadik, Silwan/City of David, and the Old City – the Temple Mount in particular. The Temple Mount has been assessed as the most volatile spot, having been used by terrorist entities and spreaders of incitement to light up the street, usually through the false but catchy slogan "Al Aqsa is in danger." This week, Hamas stepped up its "Great Dawn" campaign, and flooded residents of east Jerusalem with messages calling on them to go to Al Aqsa Mosque for Ramadan prayers to "defend it" from "attacks by settlers who violate its Muslim nature."
Starting last week, Damascus Gate was the site of serious clashes between young Arabs and security forces. These took place on the Muslim holiday that marks the Prophet Muhammad's rise to the skies. Last Saturday night, there were similar clashes in Silwan, as well. Neither of these incidents were covered by the media. However, in Sheikh Jarrah/Shimon Hatzadik – possibly due to the Supreme Court ruling that allowed the Arab tenant families to remain in the contested Jewish homes temporarily – things have calmed down somewhat.
The police and the Border Police increased their deployment to the Old City this week, and the Border Police's Gimmel Battalion has been assigned 50 additional troops. In accordance with instructions from the Israel Police Commissioner, a decision was taken not to enforce demolition orders for illegal buildings during Ramadan, either in east Jerusalem or in the Bedouin population. However, the police are working harder to track down Palestinians living in Israel illegally. The police also want to limit the number of Palestinians who come to Israel from the West Bank to pray on the Temple Mount, but that matter is the subject of debate.
Meanwhile, security officials have reached out to principals of east Jerusalem schools and asked them to calm their students down. According to researcher Yoni Ben-Menachem of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Palestinian officials also reported that text messages have been sent to the cellphones of worshippers in east Jerusalem, warning them about incitement and not to break the law.
Take off kippas
The political leadership is also taking steps to beat Ramadan to the punch. A few days ago, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met with King Abdullah II of Jordan in Amman. The two discussed a number of issues, but the question of the Temple Mount was a key one. The Jordanian royal family received constant reports from Jerusalem, and recently Jordanian Ambassador to Israel Ghassan al-Majali, who visited the Temple Mount three weeks ago and was briefed by Waqf officials, sent the king a special report. In his meeting with Lapid, Abdullah expressed concern about the large number of Jewish visitors to the Temple Mount compound and especially the Jewish prayer space on the eastern side of the Mount. The king, whose holy sites department pays salaries to hundreds of Waqf employees on the Temple Mount and whose kingdom sees itself as the anchor of peace there, had a few requests. One was to limit the number of Jewish visitors to the Mount during Ramadan, and that Jews not be allowed to visit at all during the second half of the month. The second: "Don't surprise us." Jordan is asking that the Israeli side coordinate with it and update it about decisions involving the Mount. The two sides agreed to coordinate and cooperate more closely against radical elements who are trying to light things up on the Temple Mount – Hamas, the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement, and Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Israel is deliberating what to do during Ramadan when it comes to Jews who want to visit the Mount, and it looks like decisions will be made on the fly, in accordance with situation assessments and intelligence. This year, the number of Jewish visitors to the Mount is nearing a record. While they still aren't close to the tens of millions of Muslims who visit the Temple Mount each year, Jewish visits are on the rise: Within a decade, the number of Jews visiting the Mount has increased by about 1,000%, from 4,000-5,000 a year to a projected 40,000 by the end of 2022.
There is growing demand to visit the Mount, and not only by Temple Mount activists. High school and university students, tourists, pre-army preparatory academy participants, and soldiers all want to visit. Sometimes, the police suggest that men who wear kippas remove them in exchange for a free guided tour. Some of the observant visits go with the flow, while others object, and are required to visit the Mount under more restrictive conditions.
Most years, the police bar Jews from the Mount in the last third of Ramadan, and sometimes for the second half of the holiday. But two years ago, a precedent was set. Then-Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan and the Jerusalem District Police allowed Jews to visit the Temple Mount on Jerusalem Day and the 9th of Av fast, both of which fell on Muslim holidays.
This precedent could be to the benefit of Jewish visitors to the Mount this year, if they are allowed into the compound on the days of both Passover and Ramadan. On the other hand, this year is the first year since the riots of May 2021, in which incitement about Al Aqsa played a major role. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will have to listen to the recommendations of security and defense officials and make the final decision.
