President Isaac Herzog has no idea what kind of swamp Turkey has become, pessimists say. They argue that despite Turkey's Islamist past and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's conduct, Herzog believes he must take advantage of the opportunity at hand.
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In every field, Erdogan has reason to worry. The only positive news he has had of late has come from Israel, in the form of surging trade expected to reach $10 billion in 2022.
This opportunity appeared prior to Herzog's appointment to the presidency and the establishment of the current government. In fact, this "opportunity" has come about thanks to efforts led by Erdogan himself, along with his senior adviser, the fanatical Islamist Ibrahim Kalin. Past confrontations between Erdogan and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led to a situation in which phone calls with Erdogan commenced immediately upon Herzog's election.
It was in fact Netanyahu who said as far back as 2016 that Israel and Turkey are two regional powers and as such, should maintain warm ties. Those with knowledge of the historic visit on the Israeli side have explicitly said the Abraham Accords that normalized ties between Israel and Arab states as well as the alliance with Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean unlocked extraordinary opportunities for Israel.
On the strategic front, the US is withdrawing from the Middle East. This has created a strategic turning point seen in the Netanyahu-led Abraham Accords. Herzog is highly aware of Netanyahu's contribution in these fields. A regional coalition has been formed, members of the president's entourage say, and Erdogan is now wondering where he fits in. Erdogan is now holding phone calls with US President Joe Biden. He is set to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Friday. He is initiating dialogue with Armenia and Egypt.
On the day he was elected Israel's president, Erdogan told Herzog in a phone call: "Get on a plane and come visit me." It was then explained to the Turkish leader that that is not how things work in Israel.
It appears the problem lies with the "crisis management" mechanism to be established and led in Israel by Foreign Ministry Director-General Alon Ushpiz and on the Turkish side, Kalin. This rapprochement invites Iran to put the new friendship to the test over and over again through provocations from Hamas, rocket fire from the Islamic Jihad, and certainly additional Israeli military activity, which could cause Erdogan to blow a fuse.
While Herzog treats Israel's natural gas as a resource that must be managed correctly, it has clearly bestowed Israel with a special status in the Mediterranean Sea that has forced Erdogan to change his ways.
Nevertheless, two important issues that were not raised in the bilateral talks were the East med pipeline meant to transport gas from offshore Israel and Cyprus to Greece and then Italy and the Turkish acquisition of F-35 fighter jets from the US.
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