The renewed nuclear deal with Iran, which will seemingly be signed in the coming days in Vienna, is bad from all aspects, except for one: It gives Israel a relatively large period of time to prepare a credible and effective military option should it be needed.
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The Iranians entered these talks with the bottom hand in almost every regard: a collapsing economy; perpetrating almost daily terrorist attacks against the Americans and their allies in the region; having violated the original nuclear deal in almost every possible way; and having been exposed as liars on multiple occasions. Despite all this, they are exiting these talks with the upper hand, not just because the original deal won't be extended or improved, but because they won't even have to dismantle the advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges they've installed, or cease the research and development on newer centrifuges. They will also benefit from the partial removal of economic sanctions.
This is a result of American weakness, which partly stems from the character of the president and his administration – which openly declared its desire to reach a deal and ruled out a military option in advance – and partly from the global situation. Iran skillfully exploited the tensions in Ukraine and the fact that Washington's attention is focused on Russia and China. Tehran has understood that Biden wants to end this headache and move on, and has pushed every possible button. It's possible, meanwhile, that we still haven't seen the end of it; the Iranians are wizards at negotiating and could spark crises at the last minute in an effort to garner more concessions.
Israel moved mountains to oppose this agreement. Anyone who claims otherwise either has a political interest or is uninformed. Unlike the eve of the previous nuclear deal, Israel has voiced its objections behind the scenes rather than on the brightest stages. This was a rational decision by the Bennett government, motivated by three factors: The understanding that Washington was determined to reach a deal and that no amount of pressure would change this bottom line; the fact that public condemnation of the deal and administration at the time – including then-Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech before Congress – both failed to change the end result and made the Obama administration more hostile, not to mention significantly damaged Israel's relations with the Democratic Party – relations that have not been fully rehabilitated to this day; and the hope of receiving a considerable compensation package from the US, which wouldn't be possible were Israel to again openly criticize the administration.
While the deal still hasn't been finalized and additional pressures could theoretically still be applied in an attempt to improve it, the chances of this being successful are slim. National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata visited Washington numerous times over the past few months, as did Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Defense Minister Benny Gantz, and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. The Americans, however, insisted on hearing but not listening. They agreed with almost everything Israel was saying about the various dangers posed by Iran – nuclear, ballistic, terrorist, and economic – and then did the exact opposite of what was asked.
Israel must now make lemonade out of this lemon. It has to drill into the American head that this new deal will make Iran more violent and aggressive, with much more money at its disposal and numerous scores to settle with Israel and other countries in the region. It will mean more blood, fire, and pillars of smoke.
An Israeli compensation package
Moving forward Israel must also request a significant compensation package. It should help Israel in the operational and intelligence realms against Iranian threats that will likely intensify, meaning increasing the tools at Israel's disposal to contend with an Iranian nuclear threat the moment the deal expires. Combined with Israeli technological developments on the horizon, Israel should be able to face this challenge better prepared down the line.
This would only partially compensate for the impending nuclear deal, but it appears this milk has already been spilled. From this point forward, the race will be over who is better prepared and stronger on the day the nuclear deal expires. Until then, Israel will have to continue fighting the Iranians in all arenas, in a campaign that is only expected to escalate.
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