The four earthquakes Israel has experienced over the last month are raising questions as to whether Israel is sufficiently prepared for similar geological events.
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Citing large earthquakes that struck in 1757, 1837, and 1927, Geological Survey of Israel Director Professor Zohar Gvirtzman told Israel Hayom: "We know that every century, more or less, strong earthquakes take place that are over 6 [on the Richter scale]. Israel is now in the predicted range of a strong earthquake, the likes of which can take place at any point on the Syrian-African rift [the Jordanian Rift] that constitutes our eastern border. The big earthquake can come once every 150 years or once every 50 years. There's no way for us to know."
Gvirtzman said he was particularly concerned about the area experiencing the tremors over the last month: the Jordan Valley and the area surrounding the Sea of Galilee.
"This area was quiet for decades and is now waking up. Everyone who travels in the area sees the Roman ruins in Beit Shean [of the ancient Roman city of Scythopolis], which was ultimately destroyed in 749 CE. There you can see the big Roman pillars that just crashed to the ground."
According to Gvirtzman, unlike an earthquake in a more desolate area such as the Arava region, a large earthquake in the Beit Shean area could impact most of the population in Israel.
"The risk of damage grows the more people are within range," he explained, "but unfortunately, we have no way of knowing. What we do have the ability to do is to construct buildings according to regulation and in places where there are old buildings, reinforce them or demolish them and rebuild."
In a report published last month, the Knesset Research and Information Center noted Construction and Housing Ministry findings that around 80,000 buildings with three or more floors that require reinforcement in Israel, including around 810,000 apartments require reinforcement.
According to the Interministerial Earthquake Preparedness Steering Committee's assessments, should Israel experience a powerful earthquake, beyond the lives lost, some 28,600 buildings could be destroyed or sustain serious damage. Another 290,000 buildings would see their value depreciate anywhere from 5% to 20% as a result of damage from such a quake.
Around 1,871 buildings housing 36,758 apartments situated in areas expected to experience an earthquake have yet to be reinforced. Just 5% of buildings reinforced in accordance with Israel's national outline plan for the seismic strengthening of existing buildings, commonly known as TAMA 38, are situated in the north and south of the country, while 76% are in Tel Aviv and the country's center.
A 2019 State Comptroller report on natural disasters found that 7,000 Israelis were liable to lose their lives and hundreds of thousands would find themselves homeless if a powerful earthquake were to hit the country.
Earthquakes were first officially recorded in the Holy Land in 749 CE when an earthquake destroyed Beit Shean. Earthquakes are also mentioned in the Bible.
A powerful earthquake near Israel's shoreline in the Mediterranean Sea recorded in 1068 CE killed 15,000 people in Ramle and damaged coastal cities. In 1201 CE, a powerful quake in the Jordan Valley killed thousands of people in Nablus and destroyed the city, and resulted in a giant tsunami on Israel's coast.
Over 300 years later, in 1546, the Jordan River ceased to flow following an earthquake in the Jordan Valley. A tsunami hit coastal cities from Acre in the north to Gaza in the south, and huge waves were seen in the Dead Sea. Tens of thousands of people were killed in 1759 in an earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale in the Jordan Valley. The city of Safed was destroyed and Nazareth and Tiberias both sustained damage in the quake. Tsunami waves were seen in the Sea of Galilee, and huge waves hit the shores of Acre, covering the city's streets in nearly 7 feet of water.
Another powerful earthquake in the north of the country in 1837 killed 28% of the residents of Tiberias, some of whom died as a result of a tsunami in the Sea of Galilee. Safed was completely destroyed in the natural disaster. A 1927 earthquake in the northern Dead Sea area killed 285 people and wounded 940. It caused serious damage to the cities of Jerusalem, Jericho, Ramle, Lod, Tiberias, and Nablus.
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