These past few days, world leaders and the international media have been busy with the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, but in our own region, a security drama is developing that will have more than a few ramifications for Israel.
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It all has to do with the long civil war in Yemen between the Houthis (or as they call themselves, the supreme political council), whom Iran supports, and the Yemeni government, which has lost control over some parts of the country but is still recognized by most countries in the world, and is supported mainly by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In the past few months, the Saudi-led coalition forces have stepped up their offensives against Houthi strongholds. The response was swift: rockets were launched at the Saudi capital Riyadh, as they were several times in the past, and now combined attacks on Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE. In the first attack, three foreign citizens were killed and six were wounded, and in the second, two ballistic missiles fired at the city were intercepted.
The Houthi spokesman made it clear that his organization had adopted a new strategy. "We gave the Emirates a chance to retreat," a senior Houthi official said in an interview to Arab media. "They did not heed our advice, so we recommend that investors in the Emirates leave because the country is no longer safe for them."
On Sunday, President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to arrive in Abu Dhabi for his first state visit, after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid both visited in an official capacity and a number of defense and security officials visited under the radar.
These meetings, and their intensity, reveal a new aspect of the stormy romance between Israel and the Emirates. Those who follow Amir Hayek, Israel's industrious ambassador in Abu Dhabi, on social media can get a glimpse at how deeply ties are being formed, and their bilateral nature. The Emiratis are just as eager as Israel is to see the new relations flourish and bear fruit in the fields of defense, economics, agriculture, technology, and basically every possible sector.
The Emirates have two main things to offer Israel – an important diplomatic foothold in the moderate Sunni world, and money. A lot of money. They want two important things in return – defense help, in various forms, and access to Washington. The second issue, the Americans, has soured somewhat in the past few months, but not because of Israel. For reasons of its own, the Biden administration is less eager than its predecessor to foster Gulf leaders. This is also the reason why officials in Israel think that unless something changes unexpectedly, Saudi Arabia won't be in any rush to bring its relations with Israel into the open.
The increasingly frosty relations between Washington and Abu Dhabi took practical form last month, when it was announced that the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the Emirates had been frozen. The Americans wanted to restrict the use the Emiratis would make of the planes, while the Emiratis claimed that it was an attempt to extort them over their extensive economic ties with China – which the US has declared to be a major challenge.
Behind this tension – which could be resolved, since it's just trade negotiations – there are many other weighty regional strategic issues. The Americans have been in a drawn-out process of pulling up stakes in the Middle East. It started with the Bush administration, continued under Obama and Trump, and has reached new levels with the current administration's panicked and disastrous pullout from Afghanistan, as well as the creeping, just-as-disastrous withdrawal from Iraq.
The Americans are making it no secret that they're tired of the Middle East and tired of wars (not necessarily in that order). Having cut off their dependence on Arab oil, they are increasingly focused on China (and Russia) and domestic matters (the economy, and in the last two years, COVID), Washington has very little interest in the endless Middle East headache. Like always, they refuse to believe what is obvious – that the Middle East pursues anyone who abandons it.
In the meantime, a number of countries in the region have been left exposed. If in the past it was obvious that the American sheriff would step in and restore order when one bully or another (Saddam Hussein in Kuwait, Al-Qaida, ISIS) went crazy, the sense today in Arab capitals is that they have been forgotten. When Saudi Arabia was attacked by dozens of Iranian missiles and drones in September 2019, suffering heavy damage to its national oil company, ARAMCO, Washington did nothing even though it knew Iran had carried out the attack from its own territory.
That is also the sense that prevails now, not only in Riyadh, but also the Emirates and other countries. The Americans might be leaving considerable forces and enormous command centers, but there is little chance they will deploy to defend any of the local governments. This vacuum has been identified by both China and Russia, and much more worryingly, Iran. As it does, Tehran is holding diplomatic talks at various levels with the Sunni regimes while also attacking them through its satellites, mainly from Yemen.
For Israel, these developments comprise both dangers and chances. The American weakness is bad for Israel, and good for its enemies, and also increases the chance that different countries will be tempted to cooperate with Iran to avoid being attacked by it. But it also opens the door for Israel to increase its influence in the region, and create important alliances that will build a wall against Iran that is stronger than the sum of its parts.
The Emiratis don't need the IDF to defend them. Should that ever come to pass, both sides will have to keep it on the DL, just like Egypt does about the hundreds of strikes that foreign reports say the Israeli Air Force has carried out against the Islamic State in Sinai in the past few years. They do need Israeli systems and know-how to upgrade their ability to defend themselves.
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There are plenty of these systems, most notably Iron Dome. For now, Israel has refrained from selling it to the Emirates, and that's a mistake. The diplomatic-defense-economic benefits would be enormous compared to the relatively small concern, according to experts, that knowledge and technology could be leaked. It would also be an opportunity for the defense establishment to better cope with cutting-edge Iranian weapons – cruise missiles, rockets, drones, and more – that are being distributed en masse throughout the region and which we might encounter here at some point.
Israel would also do well to grant licenses to sell offensive cyber capabilities in the Gulf. The concern that it might infuriate the Americans is understandable, but Israel is a sovereign state that needs to look out for its own interests first and foremost. The main concern is not only that a few Israeli cyber companies might collapse and there might be an ensuing brain drain to foreign countries and firms, but rather that the Gulf states might transition from a near-total dependence on Israeli technology to a dependence on Chinese technology. Surprisingly, this is not a major concern for Washington right now. When they wake up, it might be too little, too late.
It appears that Israel is afraid to make waves in the American pool to avoid thwarting attempts to exert influence on the Iranian nuclear issue. That's an error, not only because the Americans will listen, but they won't implement Israel's recommendation, and certainly won't miss any obstacle or minefield on their way to securing a new deal. This is a true, possibly one-time, opportunity for Israel to dramatically increase its standing in the region, in the face of that very same Iran and the threats it poses.
