In the twilight of war, uncertainty is your sworn enemy. As a war reporter in Kyiv, I see it crystal clear now. From here, a grand war in the heart of Europe seems so unlikely and so close at the same time – and this drives you insane.
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Over 100,000 Russian troops have surrounded Ukraine, causing the worst security crisis in the region since the active phase of the war in 2014. The Kremlin is issuing increasingly aggressive demands towards NATO and the United States regarding Ukraine's future.
Within just weeks, many Western nations have been embroiled in frantic attempts to stop the Kremlin. As diplomacy hasn't brought any tangible results, shipments of advanced weapons are now being sent to Kyiv – as probably the last-ditch attempt to – if not to avoid war – at least give Ukraine a better chance to withstand it.
It seems that, whether we like it or not, we are in the middle of the transition to war.
Ukrainian media has grown increasingly nervous. Sometimes, Ukrainian TV reminds me of the tense anticipation of grand asteroid impacts seen in so many disaster movies. The media is bombarded by Western intelligence reports on Russian plans to occupy much of Ukraine in early 2022, and maps showing war plans and featuring scary arrows of Russian attacks are all around.
President Volodymyr Zelensky makes public addresses calling on everyone to stay calm and strong and not to buy the war scare instigated by the Kremlin.
Earlier this week, Ukraine's chief of presidential staff Andriy Yermak held an off-the-record meeting with the country's top journalists. Yermak, known to be a grey cardinal behind Zelensky, was cautiously optimistic. But the tense atmosphere and the reporters' dismal expressions were saying it all, making the office look more like a war room.
Ukrainian social media is at a boiling point. People are ranting about what Russia is going to do to this country, arguing what should be included in everyone's wartime survival kits, and discussing where to find the nearest air-raid shelter and why it is used as a local grocery warehouse.
The slightest piece of news spirals into the wildest interpretations. In an interview with CNN, Zelensky said that under one of many hypothetical scenarios, Russia could seize the city of Kharkiv to "protect the Russian-speaking population." Within an hour, headlines in Ukraine's media shout "Zelensky says Russians will occupy Kharkiv."
What normally comes next is people texting me, "Do you think we're going to have a war? But please be honest with me now."
The air of war scare and doomsday spreads quickly, sometimes triggering destructive effects on the ground. Rumors continue saying that Canadian and American diplomatic missions are about to be evacuated, while airlines like Lufthansa reschedule their redeye flights to Kyiv to avoid leaving their crew for a night here in Ukraine.
Once you come up out of the media sphere, however, you find yourself in a different world.
The streets of Kyiv are busy and noisy as usual. People rush in and out, minding their own business, crowded on the subway twice a day. The snowy city enjoys fine winter weather.
It is late January now, but Kyiv still can't over with our New Year's Day time craze.
In Kontraktova Square, one of the historic centers of this ancient city, there is still a joyful Christmas fair. Attractions, candies, lights, sweets, loud music. Every night I get back home from the office nearby after writing stories on the war threat, I see my fellow Kyivans enjoying hot mulled wine, dancing in the snow, and ice-skating.
They are happy not to know how heavy is the Sword of Damocles hanging over our head right now.
The voice of reason tells me that Russia is not capable – politically, economically, militarily – of completing a World War II-scale blitzkrieg to subdue Ukraine. The price behind that is so gargantuan that it makes such an option absolutely unrealistic.
And that all of its posturing is nothing but a grand intimidation campaign.
So I usually text back to my friends: "Everything's going to be alright, they are just trying to extort concessions from the West."
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But what if I am wrong?
What if human cruelty, greed, and thirst for power defy the voice of reason and turn that Christmas fair in Kyiv into a heap of charred ruins tomorrow?
Like I've said, uncertainty in the twilight zone drives you insane.
Illia Ponomarenko is a defense and security reporter with The Kyiv Independent in Ukraine.
