Israel's COVID vaccination campaign has saved the lives of at least 20,000 Israelis, and if it weren't for the vaccines, the country's COVID death toll could have climbed as high as 30,000, as opposed to the 8,371 deaths from COVID since the pandemic first hit the country in early 2020, an analysis of data deputy Health Ministry chief Professor Itamar Grotto conducted for Israel Hayom reveals.
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The data Grotto worked with were based on an analysis by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
Grotto's estimate is a cautious once, since it applies only to Israelis age 60 and over. According to Grotto, vaccines have also saved the lives of several thousand more residents under age 60.
According to Health Ministry figures, from the time Israel began the vaccinations on Dec. 19, 2020 to Jan. 22, 2022, about 6.7 million Israelis have received one dose of the vaccine, some 6 million have received both doses, and approximately 4.4 million have received both doses plus booster shots. Another 600,000 Israelis have received a second booster shot.
The figures also indicate that an unvaccinated Israeli is eight times as likely to die from COVID-19 as a vaccinated compatriot, and that vaccinated citizens were far better off during the Omicron variant wave, being five times less likely to die of the illness than the unvaccinated.
Grotto, an expert in public health and epidemiology who lectures at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev told Israel Hayom that "Some sectors of the public and some experts are now looking at the Omicron wave and claiming that its proof that this is a minor illness, 'like the flue,' but that's a ridiculous mistake, since it doesn't take into account the vaccines' important effect, which is to prevent serious illness and deaths to a large extent, even in the Omicron wave."
Grotto explained that an analysis by the ECDC published in November 2021 looked at the COVID deaths among people age 60 and over that were prevented due to vaccinations in countries that are part of the WHO's European region, which include Israel. The analysis looked at this age group, since 90% of COVID deaths occur is people age 60 and over. The research, published on the Eurosurveillance site, hypothesized that a single vaccine dose prevented 60% of deaths and two doses prevented up to 95% of deaths.
According to Grotto, the study indicates that in the period from December 2020, when vaccination campaigns launched in Israel and elsewhere, to November 2021, Israel was ranked third in the number of deaths prevented by the vaccine, with an estimated 15,662 deaths from COVID in Israel having been prevented in that time. In those 11 months, 3,972 people over 60 in Israel died of COVID, and if it hadn't been for the vaccines, 19,634 would have died.
"The researchers concluded that since the start of vaccinations in Europe, the vaccines have saved many elderly people's lives, and that early and full vaccination of the elderly was a factor in the sharp decline in the number of predicted deaths. The reasons why Israel is ranked third in Europe has to do with the rapid rollout of vaccines in Israel and our broad coverage of people age 60 and up," Grotto said.
Professor Galia Rahav, director of the Infectious Disease Department at Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer, told Israel Hayom that "the vaccines ended the third wave of COVID and saved many Israelis' lives. Thus far, the vaccines have prevented a lot of morbidity and mortality, and in the fourth wave, the booster also prevented a lot of deaths and new infections."
Rahav pointed out that in the Omicron wave, it is possible to see "a drop in the curve of new confirmed cases in people with the second booster, and we also see that serious cases are more prominent in those who have not received the fourth shot. There is no doubt that the vaccine prevents hospitalizations, serious illness, and death, and is very successful in doing so. Vaccines are the most important medical intervention in the history of medicine and humanity, and along with hygiene practices and sanitation such as modern sewage systems, have saved billions of people from death, disability, and serious illness."
As of Saturday, Jan. 22, there were 442,229 active or symptomatic COVID cases in Israel, with 1,967 COVID patients hospitalized. Of the hospitalized patients, 732 were in serious condition, including 208 who were listed in critical condition. A total of 146 hospitalized patients were on ventilators and 16 were attached to ECMO machines.
The percentage of COVID tests process on Saturday that came back positive was 20.61%.
Since the start of the pandemic in Israel in early 2020, the country's COVID death toll stood at 8,393, 68 of whom died in the last seven days.
On Friday, the UK Health Security Agency designated a sub-lineage of the Omicron coronavirus variant as a variant under investigation, saying it could have a growth advantage.
BA.2, which does not have the specific mutation seen with Omicron that can help to easily distinguish it from Delta, is being investigated but has not been designated a variant of concern.
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"It is the nature of viruses to evolve and mutate, so it's to be expected that we will continue to see new variants emerge," Dr. Meera Chand, incident director at the UKHSA, said.
"Our continued genomic surveillance allows us to detect them and assess whether they are significant."
Britain has sequenced 426 cases of the BA.2 sub-lineage, and the UKHSA said that while there was uncertainty around the significance of the changes to the viral genome, early analysis suggested an increased growth rate compared to the original Omicron lineage, BA.1.
UKHSA said that 40 countries had reported BA.2 sequences, with the most samples reported in Denmark, followed by India, Britain, Sweden and Singapore.
In Denmark, BA.2 has grown rapidly. It accounted for 20% of all COVID cases in the last week of 2021, rising to 45% in the second week of 2022.
Anders Fomsgaard, researcher at Statens Serum Institut (SSI), said he did not yet have a good explanation for the rapid growth of the sub-lineage, adding he was puzzled, but not worried.
"It may be that it is more resistant to the immunity in the population, which allows it to infect more. We do not know yet," he told broadcaster TV 2, adding that there was a possibility that people infected with BA.1 might not be immune from then catching BA.2 soon after.
"It is a possibility," he said. "In that case, we must be prepared for it. And then, in fact, we might see two peaks of this epidemic."
Initial analysis made by Denmark's SSI showed no difference in hospitalizations for BA.2 compared to BA.1.
Elsewhere in Europe, Czech folk singer Hana Horka, a vocal opponent of the COVID vaccine, died last week of COVID-19. Her son reported that Horka had intentionally contracted the virus.
Horka, 57, posted a message on social media in which she said she was recovering after having tested positive for the virus. Two days later, she died
Her son, Jak Rek, told Czech media that his mother had intentionally contracted COVID after he and his father caught it, hoping to secure a certificate for recovered COVID patients that would allow her into performance venues. Czech has similar COVID regulations to those in place in Israel.
Unlike Horka, both Rek and his father had been vaccinated, but nevertheless suffered breakthrough infections after Christmas. Rek said Horka decided not to social distance, hoping an infection would produce "natural antibodies."
i24NEWS contributed to this report
