Professor Ran Balicer, chairman of the Health Ministry's pandemic response team, warned Saturday that the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant will see infection rates continue to break records.
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Q: What is your assessment regarding the Omicron wave? How many confirmed cases will we reach at the apex and how long will this wave last?
"There are no predictive models as to what the apex will look like. There are too many unknowns at the moment to predict the number of infections at the high point, and the approximate date at which this will occur. There will be millions of confirmed cases, and therefore many people will be hospitalized in serious condition," he told Israel Hayom.
Q: What do we know thus far about Omicron and the severe morbidity it causes, and are the question marks starting to clear up?
"In recent weeks we've learned that Omicron behaves fundamentally differently than previous strains. The differences between it and the Delta variant are greater than the differences between Delta and Alpha and the other strains. It has various mechanisms for entering the cell and operates differently at the cellular level. Omicron mostly targets the upper respiratory system and less so the lungs, along with various other differences we can identify at the moment. All of these differences on the cellular level apparently help explain why it is less violent than the Delta variant. And at this stage, it's clear to us from the British data that the risk of severe hospitalization is at least three times lower compared to Delta. This is the good news, but because it is more contagious than Delta and is able to infect even those who have been sick before and the vaccinated, the number of infections will be higher and the number of accumulated hospitalizations could also be higher. Therefore the health system is preparing for severe scenarios."
Q: Regarding the Delta variant, it was said that one percent of those infected would require hospitalization. What will the number be with Omicron?
"It fluctuates from country to country and it's hard to compare, but based on standardized conversions of age and vaccination status, the odds of requiring hospitalization are three times less than with the Delta variant."
Q: Is Omicron more dangerous for children?
"We don't regard it as fact that Omicron is more dangerous for children, but it's important to clarify that we are still collecting data from across the globe and there is still uncertainty on this matter. In my opinion, it's prudent to be cautious and to make a significant effort to prevent infection among children in the schools via all the tools at our disposal, and I reiterate my call to those who haven't vaccinated their children – do it now. It's important to protect the children to prevent PIMS (Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome and long-COVID symptoms), whose rates are still unknown."
Q: Is herd immunity a possibility considering the large scope of morbidity?
"We still don't know what the infection rate will be but are familiar with the desire to attain herd immunity. What we're seeing right now is that people who have been infected in previous waves are also susceptible to re-infection. The aspiration at any stage should be to avoid infection for as long as daily conduct and vaccinations allow, and to remember that vaccination provides protection without the risks. It's not a certainty that those who have contracted Omicron will be protected against additional strains and infection at a later date."
Q: The government made a decision last week to deprioritize PCR testing in favor of at-home or quick tests. Won't this lead to chaos? Isn't this akin to "giving up" in the fight against the coronavirus?
"If we could have maintained the previous testing policy amid a reality of tens of thousands of infections per day, we would have done so. But because it's unfeasible, especially when the numbers will continue doubling, the new directives were inevitable. The system cannot provide a response within a reasonable timeframe with every additional doubling of daily infections. What should have happened, which is now indeed happening, is to prioritize [PCR] testing for populations that need it the most – the elderly and vulnerable who need urgent care after infection. Our ability to trace the spread of the disease will indeed suffer, but we will continue to monitor the situation based on infections among those 60 years old and up, accounting for the flu and fourth vaccination doses, and at the hospitals – where the directives haven't changed."
Q; At this stage, is there any way to stop infection by imposing restrictions such as the "green pass" or public gatherings ("purple pass")?
"Vaccinations, and particularly the booster, provide good protection against contracting the Delta strain, and excellent protection against severe illness due to Delta and Omicron. The green pass creates an environment in which far fewer Delta infections occur but doesn't provide enough protection against contracting Omicron. It's important to make it clear to adults and those who are at-risk that to avoid Omicron infection in the coming weeks, they should also avoid unnecessary gatherings that take place within green pass guidelines."
Q: You said last week that the green pass has also lost some of its effectiveness. What is the recommendation now to vulnerable populations? How would you advise people to behave?
Despite the high contagiousness of Omicron, at-risk populations can avoid contracting the virus in the current wave. We must vaccinate those who haven't received a third dose (there are currently 400,000 people above the age of 40 who haven't received the third dose). Those eligible for a fourth dose can get it and replenish their antibodies to levels that existed after the third dose. The data from Great Britain indicates that those who have received a 'fresh' booster are almost 90% protected against severe illness.
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"The second thing is to make sure to wear a mask in every closed space and gathering. People should also avoid attending events in closed spaces, aside from necessary daily activities. The elderly population needs to continue as normal to socialize and meet people, but try to do so outdoors or in a space that is as ventilated as possible. On one hand, avoid large gatherings in closed spaces, but on the other hand, don't reach a point of social isolation and continue to meet with friends."
