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Home Special Coverage Coronavirus Outbreak

'Avoiding 4th COVID shot could take a heavy toll,' expert warns

FDA approves Pfizer's coronavirus pill. Two British studies suggest Omicron variant might be milder than the Delta strain. In Israel, reproduction rate continues to increase as 1,400 people test positive for the virus.

by  Maytal Yasur Beit-Or , Assaf Golan and AP
Published on  12-23-2021 13:04
Last modified: 12-23-2021 13:08
'Avoiding 4th COVID shot could take a heavy toll,' expert warnsReuters/Dado Ruvic

The new US study is enrolling up to 1,420 healthy adults, ages 18 to 55 | File photo: Reuters/Dado Ruvic

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The Health Ministry reported on Thursday morning that of the 98,586 Israelis it screened for the coronavirus in the past 24 hours, 1,400 (1.44%) tested positive. The reproduction rate, which relates to the number of people each confirmed carrier infects, increased and currently stands at 1.34.

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There are currently 9,591 active cases in the country with 124 patients hospitalized. Of those, 83 are in serious condition.

Israel has reported 1,360,098 cases, including 8,239 deaths, since the outbreak of the pandemic last year.

Thus far, 4,176,653 Israelis have been fully vaccinated, 5,857,658 received two jabs and 6,481,676 got the first dose.

On Wednesday, health regulators in the United States authorized the first pill against COVID-19, a Pfizer drug that those infected with the virus will be able to take at home to head off the worst effects of the disease.

The long-awaited milestone comes as US cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all rising and health officials warn of a tsunami of new infections from the Omicron variant that could overwhelm hospitals.

The drug, Paxlovid, is a faster way to treat early COVID-19 infections, though initial supplies will be extremely limited. All of the previously authorized drugs against the disease require an IV or an injection.

An antiviral pill from Merck drug manufacturer also is expected to soon win authorization. But Pfizer's drug is all but certain to be the preferred option because of its mild side effects and superior effectiveness, including a nearly 90% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths among patients most likely to get severe disease.

"The efficacy is high, the side effects are low and it's oral. It checks all the boxes," Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic said. "You're looking at a 90% decreased risk of hospitalization and death in a high-risk group – that's stunning."

The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer's drug for adults and children ages 12 and older with a positive COVID-19 test and early symptoms who face the highest risks of hospitalization.

The pills from both Pfizer and Merck are expected to be effective against Omicron because they don't target the spike protein where most of the variant's worrisome mutations reside.

Pfizer currently has 180,000 treatment courses available worldwide, with roughly 60,000 to 70,000 allocated to the US. The company said it expects to have 250,000 available in the US by the end of January.

The US government has agreed to purchase enough Paxlovid to treat 10 million people, and it will be provided free to patients. Pfizer says it's on track to produce 80 million courses globally next year, under contracts with Britain, Australia, and other nations.

Israel's Health Ministry is in negotiations with the pharmaceutical giant to reserve an order for the new drug, but an agreement has not been signed yet.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Wednesday evening that Israelis over the age of 60 will most likely be able to get vaccinated with the fourth dose starting next week with no prior registration required.

"I pray that the Omicron will be less violent, but people who are more vulnerable should be as prepared as possible," he told the media.

On Tuesday, a Health Ministry task force recommended the fourth jab for people over the age of 60, as well as healthcare workers, at-risk patients, and people who work with the elderly, however, the decision is yet to be approved by Health Ministry Director-General Nachman Ash.

Boaz Lev, head of the Health Ministry's panel of experts on virus policy, spoke out in support of the dose during a press conference on Thursday.

"Omicron's reproduction rate is high, he said. "In Germany, it stands at 3.1, in the US almost at 3. Such a high reproduction rate we haven't seen before. In previous waves, it stood at 1.2 and we thought that was awful. The [Omicron] variant has become dominant.

"There's this thing called the cost of a mistake. If a wave comes and we have not vaccinated, what will be the price? Severe morbidity? Mortality? Quarantines? That is the price of the mistake of not vaccinating. Over the next few days, we will use more data from countries where the wave is rising."

In related news, two British studies released on Wednesday provide some early hints that the Omicron variant might be milder than the Delta strain.

Scientists stress that even if the findings of these early studies hold up, any reductions in severity need to be weighed against the fact Omicron spreads much faster than Delta and is more able to evade vaccines. Sheer numbers of infections could still overwhelm hospitals.

An analysis from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimated hospitalization risks for Omicron cases in England, finding people infected with the variant are around 20% less likely to go to the hospital at all than those infected with the Delta variant, and 40% less likely to be hospitalized for a night or more.

That analysis included all cases of COVID-19 confirmed by PCR tests in England in the first half of December in which the variant could be identified: 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta.

A separate study out of Scotland – by scientists at the University of Edinburgh and other experts – suggested the risk of hospitalization was two-thirds less with Omicron than Delta. But that study pointed out that the nearly 24,000 Omicron cases in Scotland were predominantly among younger adults ages 20-39. Younger people are much less likely to develop severe cases of COVID-19.

"This national investigation is one of the first to show that Omicron is less likely to result in COVID-19 hospitalization than Delta," researchers wrote. While the findings are early observations, "they are encouraging," the authors wrote.

The findings have not yet been reviewed by other experts, the gold standard in scientific research.

Data out of South Africa, where the variant was first detected, have also suggested Omicron might be milder there. Salim Abdool Karim, a clinical infectious disease epidemiologist in South Africa, said earlier this week that the rate of admissions to hospitals was far lower for Omicron than it was for Delta.

"Our overall admission rate is in the region of around 2% to 4% compared to previously, where it was closer to 20%," he said. "So even though we're seeing a lot of cases, very few are being admitted."

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