As world powers prepare to reconvene in Vienna for renewed nuclear talks with Iran, former National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror said that "without a military threat and pressure on Iran, nothing will result from a deal."
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Amidror made the comment while taking part in a panel at Reichman University in Herzliya during the Institute for Policy and Strategy's "Security and Policy" conference Tuesday. He fiercely defended an approach that would see Israel develop its military capability to strike Iran on its own.
"The world won't lift a finger," Amidror said. "The Americans won't carry out a single mission."
Speaking on the same panel, former Mossad intelligence agency chief Tamir Pardo said that Israel has "the best army in the world to deal with singular target attacks," but warned that the situation surrounding Iran "is not the same."
While Israel succeeded in single handedly halting nuclear programs in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007, each of which involved one target, "Iran involves dozens of targets," he said.
Brett McGurk, White House National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, who was interviewed online during an earlier session, said the US "is fully committed to Israel's security," but was vague in explaining exactly what America had in mind in terms of a military response should the talks to return to the nuclear deal fail.
"As [US] President [Joe] Biden has said, we are prepared to pursue other options if diplomacy fails, but as of right now, we still remain very committed to the diplomatic course," McGurk said.
"Nobody in the Biden administration has any illusions about Iran," he added. "Iran is not a friend. It is an adversary… Of course, de-escalation only works if you also have a deterrent capacity. So, we are very committed to ensuring that all of our partners in the Middle East have the abilities to defend and protect themselves as they pursue avenues of de-escalation."
While McGurk acknowledged Iran's destabilizing actions in the Middle East, he also suggested that international sanctions on Tehran "don't fully work."
He said that while the Trump administration held a maximalist position with regard to Iran, the Biden administration is working to "get back to basics" and focusing on "sound policy, sound statecraft."
Joseph Votel, a former commander at the United States Central Command, told the conference via a live feed that "containing Iran's adventurism in the region and preventing them from obtaining nuclear weapons is a national security interest for the United States."
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Votel stressed the US was intent on "preventing instability in the region" and protecting Israel's security.
He acknowledged Israel's concerns about US policy vis-à-vis Iran but insisted there are "enduring mutual interests."
With regard to the military option, Votel said, "We will have to see how the negotiations play out and how we move forward in this particular area."
"Being able to demonstrate and exercise military capability and our ability to return forces to the region is an important tool of leverage for our diplomats and our civilian leadership as we move forward," he added. "It is vital that we continue to do that. We do have to routinely demonstrate our ability to bring people into the region [and demonstrate] that we can protect our interests."
Votel defended the Iran talks, saying, "As a military officer, I do believe there needs to be a way for us to have dialogue with our adversaries as we work through tense security issues."
Amidror said that the nuclear deal "is great for the Iranians, and if I were Iranian, I would do anything to return to the deal. It allows them to continue to develop parts of their nuclear program, and by 2030, they receive complete legitimacy to do almost anything they want."
While he said Israel must continue to try and reach a diplomatic solution because that is the best option, Amidror emphasized that he was "very pessimistic" and did not believe diplomatic efforts would bear fruit.
He noted that in 1995, Israel approached the US with intelligence that Iran was developing nuclear weapons, but it took two years for the Americans to become convinced that the intelligence was accurate. "And it's not because they didn't have the facts," he said. "They had all the facts because we gave them the facts. They refused to recognize the fact that Iran was developing a military nuclear program."
He said, "I mention this because it is part of our problem." According to Amidror, the US now wants a smoking gun, but it will not recognize any evidence Israel provides as a smoking gun because the Americans simply do not have the will to launch a military operation against Iran.
Ultimately, Israel will need to take action on its own, he argued. "I don't know if we do or don't have the capability [to strike Iran's nuclear facilities] but if we don't, we must."
"The ability to defend ourselves is the entire purpose of the State of Israel," he said, adding that the Jewish state exists exactly so that "we don't need to travel to Washington and ask them to defend us."
While former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin and Pardo said it was a mistake for the US to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018, Amidror said it was the correct decision. In his view, the mistake had been not having a "Plan B."
"To many Americans, Iran is not a problem," Amidror said. "The Americans regard human rights and the Palestinian issue far greater problems to deal with than the Iranian threat."
Amidror repeated his main point that Israel must be prepared to destroy Iran's military nuclear facilities on its own. "I hope it doesn't come to that, but unfortunately I believe in the end we will have no choice," he said. "The Americans do not want to act."
Time is running out
Meanwhile the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi warned time was running out for the UN atomic watchdog to gain the access necessary to reinstall cameras at a centrifuge-parts workshop in Iran. As a result, the agency would soon be unable to guarantee equipment was not being diverted to make atom bombs, he said on Wednesday.
Grossi made the remark one day after a trip to Tehran in which he said he had made no progress on several issues, the most pressing of which was the lack of access to the workshop at the TESA Karaj complex two months after Iran had promised to grant it.
The workshop makes parts for advanced centrifuges - machines that enrich uranium - and was the target of apparent sabotage in June. Tehran blames Israel for what it says was an attack that destroyed one of four IAEA cameras at the site. Iran later removed all the cameras and destroyed missing camera footage.
In a statement to the press on the first day of a quarterly meeting of his agency's 35-nation Board of Governors, Grossi explained "We are close to the point where I would not be able to guarantee continuity of knowledge." Grossi was referring to a gap in the IAEA's monitoring of sensitive installations that could allow a significant amount of material or equipment to be siphoned off for a secret nuclear weapons program.
In a statement to the Board of Governors meeting, the United States said Iran should let the IAEA re-install cameras at Karaj City "immediately" and that a continuing standoff over the issue would complicate efforts to revive a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major Western powers.
The IAEA has repeatedly said it has no indication that Iran has a secret weapons program, and Iran insists its aims are peaceful. Grossi, however, said he still did not know whether Karaj was operational five months after the apparent attack.
"It is obvious that such a long period of time without us getting access, knowing whether there are operational activities ongoing, is something that in itself would at some point prevent me from continuing to say 'I have an idea of what is going on,'" Grossi said.
Indirect talks between the United States and Iran are scheduled to resume in Vienna on Monday. The aim is to bring Iran and the United States back into full compliance with the deal.
The JCPOA lifted international sanctions against Tehran in exchange for restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities, but little currently remains of the pact in practice.
Then-US President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the agreement in 2018 and reimposed US sanctions, prompting Iran to progressively breach its restrictions and keep advancing its nuclear activities.
The United States and its European allies would normally pressure Iran on the issue through a resolution from the Board of Governors, but diplomats say that they will abstain for fear of jeopardizing the wider JCPOA talks.
JNS.org contributed to this report.
