The release of the Israeli couple from Turkish custody shouldn't placate us. The Turkish hostility is inherent, and a gesture won't eradicate it. This hostility is different from that of Nasser's Egypt in the 1950s and 1960s, or that of Iran since 1979 – there are diplomatic relations and civilian trade relations have been largely unaffected. Still, Turkey's basic policy declares a struggle against Israel.
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Turkey has traded its failed aspiration of integrating into Europe with a kind of impulsive desire for hegemony over the entire world around us. This is a change that puts it into a basic conflict with Israel, because the latter is a regional superpower (if anyone has missed it), that essentially limits the Turks' ability to take over.
Our place at the eye of the regional storm and the fact that we are a Jewish state, an exception in a mainly Muslim region, repeatedly place us in a state of conflict with those who want to seize control of the Fertile Crescent. Even though Israel, in its first few decades, was much weaker, it was seen as an obstacle for any leader seeking regional hegemony, like then-Egyptian President Nasser, or fascist parties like the Baath in Syria and Iraq. Much more so today. We are very impressed by Shiite Iran's Islamic ideology, and now by that of Sunni Turkey, and think that it's the main reason for their hostility toward Israel. But in both cases, Islam is an ideological language for Iran and Turkey's simple imperialism. And it's a language that fits them, because Islam is a political religion that is fundamentally controlling, one that served as the basis for more than a few empires.
An effective way of understanding Israel's geopolitical standing is the comparison – huge differences notwithstanding – to Britain's position on foreign policy on Europe for hundreds of years. European powers like Spain, France, and finally Germany were Britain's enemies because of their very strength and aspiration for superiority on the continent. By the same reasoning, former enemies that have weakened, like France, became allies as a new force, like Germany, arose. Israel is not a large island or a maritime power. It's characteristics of power have also changed. Power that is the result of an information economy, for example, is something without precedent.
But there is an inherent similarity: like Britain's dealings with Europe, anyone who currently seeks dominance in the region – if they have the power to achieve it – will become our enemy.
The wheel of history is constantly turning. Turkey and Iran used to be Israel's hidden allies against the pan-Arab subversion to regional superiority. Now the Arab states, including the biggest one – Egypt – are much weaker. Their process of nation-building has failed completely. They are breaking apart and sinking, not through slow atrophy, but in a rapid and dangerous crash. Iran and Turkey are therefore being pulled into the chaotic space around us on the Arabian Peninsula, the Fertile Crescent, and North Africa, in an attempt to control it. So they are our enemies. Not because of radical Islam. The rogue Islam in Saudi Arabia, despite all recent reforms, is more oppressive than the Shiite Islam in Iran, and much more than Turkish Islam. Still, Saudi is being pushed into the UAE's lane of an alliance with Israel.
All this should make our strategic outlook clearer. Iran and Turkey aren't exactly outstanding modern countries, especially not when it comes to their dark political regimes. But they are strong in the region in light of the immense weakness of Arab societies, so they are gradually approaching our northern border.
Power is a relative term, as we know. This situation has certain advantages for us – a smart Israeli leadership that is aware that our relative power, and not just our weaknesses, could use that power to ensure its vital interests in our relations with the Arab residents of Israel. But in general, the vacuum invites hostile forces to come closer and demands a realistic foreign policy. It's not impossible that a conflict could develop between Israel and Turkey similar to the one that exists with Iran, for similar reasons.
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