The ruling Yamina party would not cross the four-seat electoral threshold if elections were held, the survey group Direct Polls said on Saturday after releasing a new poll.
The results, if they turn out accurate, mean that for the first time since its founding in 2019, the party – led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – would have no seats in the Knesset, making it unlikely that it could stay in power by replicating its razor-thin coalition of right- and left-wing parties. The poll included some 600 participants over the age of 18.
Bennett became prime minister in June thanks to his willingness to align with the Left despite Yamina being a right-wing party. The goal of that maneuver was to oust then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had been in power for more than 12 years. Bennett said he was doing that in order to avert another early election and end the political stalemate, but his critics said he was reneging on his election promise and that it was inappropriate for a party of 6-seats to be in charge of a government.
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Direct Polls said that "the internal polls that we have conducted over the past several months indicate that Yamina and New Hope [another party in the ruling coalition] are shrinking to a combined seven seats. Each has a loyal electorate equivalent to about two seats, and the remaining three keep going back and forth between the two parties. The events of the last two weeks have caused these voters to migrate [from Yamina] to New Hope, which after a few weeks once again garners four seats in our polls."
Over the past two weeks, Yamina has been plagued by scandals. Last Monday, Yamina MK Shirly Pinto accused Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu of using the anniversary of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's assassination to prove that he was the true victim of the crime. Pinto ignited the ire of fellow right-wing lawmakers, who said her remarks proved she was in fact a leftist.
On Friday, it was reported that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in closed talks he did not believe the coalition government would last long enough for Foreign Minister Yair Lapid to become premier as part of the power-sharing agreement.
Finally, on Sunday Yamina MK Idit Silman was accused of trying to defect to Yesh Atid.
The fate of the coalition will be determined this week when the Knesset will vote on the state budget. Assuming the bill is approved, the Benett-Lapid coalition – with Yamina and New Hope being at its core – will have about two years to try and win back voters before another election is held. In the latest Direct Polls survey, Likud ranked first, with 35 mandates, and Yesh Atid second, with 20 seats.
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