Do you ever wonder how governments would have tackled the coronavirus pandemic had they known about it in advance? According to Israeli futurist Professor David Passig, such forecasts did exist.
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Passig is an associate professor at Bar-Ilan University and a best-selling author who specializes in technological, social, and educational futures. He is also the chair of FutureCode Ltd., a company that develops and employs tool kits of computerized Futures methods in decision-making processes.
Before the outbreak of the pandemic in Wuhan in late 2019, Passig predicted that humanity was heading toward such a global event.
"Many things were not clear at the time, but yes, I understood that that is where we were headed," he told Israel Hayom. "Not just because of the virological issue, but because of the domestic and international political systems that contributed to the outbreak and did not respond to it as they should have. The assessment was that if a pandemic did erupt, global society would not be able to tackle it due to structural problems."
Q: Does this mean that there were no concrete prognoses? Some say that there are too many variables in the modern age that make it impossible to make precise predictions.
"Firstly, humankind has reached a point where unless it predicts events before they happen and prepares for them accordingly, it might make colossal mistakes that would be difficult to fix. Secondly, while we do not have tools that enable us to consider all possible variables, we are capable of predicting events with a 60-70% accuracy.
"When the accuracy is only 30%, we do not address it, but when it is high, such as 60 or 70%, as I said, it would be wrong not to address it."
Q: One of your forecasts says that if 70% of the world's population gets vaccinated, then the coronavirus will wane by 2025. What are the chances of this? And is the worst of the pandemic behind us?
"I don't think that the worst is completely over, but we are progressing at a good pace. What I can say is that it will probably be the shortest pandemic in history. Because it is the first one to have a vaccine developed within a year because there is both medicine and growing public awareness of viruses. Perhaps the coronavirus is a blessing in disguise in that it prepares us for future viruses, which will undoubtedly come our way. Bottom line, the world is a petri dish of viruses and bacteria that fight each other."
Q: Do you think in the future humanity will handle outbreaks better?
"Ideally, instead of it taking a year to develop a vaccine against a virus and an additional 3-4 years to inoculate the global population, it will take 4-6 weeks to create the dose, and another year to overcome the pandemic and innoculate all of humankind."
Q: Will efficacy also increase in the treatment of other diseases, like cancer, dementia, flu, and AIDS?
"Humanity is making extraordinary progress in all these areas. In the past, a person who was diagnosed with cancer died within a few months. Today, technology extends his life by 15 years, and often the person overcomes cancer altogether. We also understand Alzheimer's better.
"The simple fact is that 200 years ago the average life expectancy was 25 years. Today, according to the World Health Organization, the average global life expectancy is 73 years. That is a lot.
"In Israel, life expectancy increases by two years each decade. Humanity has never progressed in such a manner, and in my opinion, why stop there? The sky's the limit."
Q: Do you think that people who will live to 150 years have already been born?
"Yes. And if not to 150, then at least 130. It is a different kind of generation. Futurists already have a name for them. They are not homo sapiens, but homo universalis. The person is different and so is his consciousness – it is a person with 120 years' worth of experience, not 70 or 80. So yes, such children have already been born. Add to that the studies that show that the average IQ level has risen by 17% in the second half of the 20th century. Our children are smarter and will live longer."
Q: What brought about the increase in IQ?
"Since the invention of the printing press some 600 years ago, we have made extraordinary progress in writing and reading, but at the end of the day, these are still primitive ways of expression.
"They are full of nuances that cannot be conveyed clearly. The younger generation uses images, audio, video – sophisticated means that go beyond the written word – and therefore for them, reading is boring. Their environment is also rich in sensory stimuli, and therefore the rise in IQ is noticeable. They may read and write less, but look at how they express themselves on TikTok."
Passig's latest book The Fifth Fiasco – How to escape the traps of Jewish History in the twenty-first century identifies the direction in which the Jewish people and their future leaders will develop.
Q: You begin your book with a scary scenario, that of civil war. Given the alarming rate of violence in Arab society today, should we be worried?
"It is indeed one of the clear trends that will most likely occur. It is a process that is similar to that which other nations have gone through, and we are no different. Before [former Prime Minister Yitzhak] Rabin was assassinated, people said something like that would never happen, but it did. At the end of the day, like every other system, we too operate according to patterns."
Q: What pattern is it this time?
"The creation of a new national entity's nationalism through a painful process of civil war. Political and national entities that emerged similarly to the State of Israel experienced violence three or four generations later, and that is what I base my prediction on.
"Most of the time, it begins with the assassination of a leader, and then with a civil war. It happens when the unifying factor of a country begins to disintegrate. The outcome is not only constant clashes in the legislature but also violence that leads to dozens of deaths."
Q: This is a most serious forecast. Is anyone heeding it?
"I think few understand that there is a real problem here. People tell me, 'All we need to do is unite.' But that will not necessarily stop the worrisome trend, because the train has already left the station."
Q: Does your book also list possible solutions?
"The only solution is for all groups to agree on an idea towards which they would work together. Israel was established based on the consensus that the bitter fate of the Jewish people must be stopped by building a national home.
"But of all the groups that came together to build this home, each one had a different view. At some point, this one-time glue started to fade, as it also happened with other groups throughout history."
Q: In your book, you also said that in a few years Israel will look very different than we know it today, that there will no longer be Religious Zionists, ultra-Orthodox, Hassidim, or secular Israelis.
"Throughout almost all of history, most of the groups within the Jewish people came about as a result of external processes, from kingdoms all the way to Zionism. After all, Zionism is ultimately a reflection of the process of nationalism in human history. And the Jews used this process to realize their national aspirations. And the external processes change all the time. So saying 'Zionism forever' is a mistake, because it is a reflection of external processes, and when things change on the outside, they also change on the inside.
"The same is true with regard to religious and secular Israelis. The ultra-Orthodox community is 300 years old at most. So, there will still be distinctions, but not as we know them today."
Q: In your book, you also speak about the rebirth of the Jewish people. When do you predict it will happen? And how?
"We already are going through this process, and the rebirth is closer now than ever. We recently passed a crucial milestone in the history of the Jewish people. Because for the first time since the destruction of the First Temple 2,600 years ago, the world's largest Jewish community is located in Israel. Forty-five percent of world Jewry is now living here, more than seven million people. The United States, which used to house the largest Jewish community, now has less than 6 million Jews.
"Within a decade, more than 50% of world Jewry will live in Israel. In another 30 years, there will be 18 million Jews in the world, 12 of those in Israel. Two-thirds of world Jewry will live here. Never before in history has there been such a thing, not even during the First Temple period.
"It only took us 100 years to recover demographically from the Holocaust. Before World War II, there were 18 million Jews in the world, 12 of those in Europe. It's a complete reversal of history. It is a process that we go through, but do not notice. It is a rebirth of the Jewish nation."
Q: Your book also speaks of a decrease in global employment rates.
"Over the last 200 years, of the world's population, only 65% have remained in the workforce. This 65% supports the other 35% – pregnant women, retired people, the sick.
"The continuation of this process is automation, that is, machines will replace people with routine jobs. Then, about 50% of the world's population will have a job, and will assist the other 50%."
Q: It's not easy to think about half of the world's population as relying on assistance.
"This isn't the welfare kind of support, because they will volunteer and study. And that will make our society more empathetic towards others who are going through different processes and situations in their lives. Humanity will not need as many hands when there is automation. But the completion of this process might take hundreds of years."
Q: Is it healthy for a person not to work?
"Today we mostly define ourselves by our jobs. Who said it should be like that? Time will come when people will define themselves based on their actions, not their jobs. It is a beautiful vision. Who would not want a sabbatical, relaxation, time to contemplate?"
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Q: And for those who will continue to work, what occupations will be most promising in the 21st century?
"In the 20th century, whoever knew how to provide a particular service, had a good career – education, medicine, security. In the last 30 years, it was whoever worked in the information industry, that is, created and used data.
"We are now entering another stage in the development - what to do with large amounts of data and what can be understood from them. For example, Waze, which creates information based on our location.
"The next 30 years will be crucial for industries that create knowledge. Those who work in artificial intelligence, trying to create intelligence from large amounts of data, will be successful. Those who solve colossal modern problems, like transportation, will also do well.
"Population density is increasing. Half of the human population now lives in cities. In another 50 years, this number will go up to nearly 80%. There will be limited space, and therefore, whoever solves these problems for us – transportation and ability to move in dense areas – will be paid very well."
Q: One of your forecasts says such density will lead to construction underground, as much as 100 floors. It is difficult to imagine.
"In 30 years, Israel will have a population of 16 million people. Never before has this piece of land housed 16 million residents. And in another 80 years, at the end of the century, there will be 24 million people here. Where will they live? It has to go either upward or downward. Living underground has its advantages. In a region as hot as ours, we will be able to build cool and inexpensive homes. At first, it will be a bit more pricey, but later, it will become the opposite. These technologies are already being developed."
Q: Theoretically, if a person from 2021 was to time travel to Israel in 2100, what would he witness?
"That person would see a vital Israel, a regional and perhaps even global superpower. He would see a society with many children and young people, a society that no one could have imagined.
"He would see people that do not work a lot, eat well, travel the world, and enjoy the freedom we never knew. At the same time, people will not be content, not with themselves, not with leadership, not with organizations. This has characterized the Jews throughout the generations.
"It's called the paradox of progress - the better our situation, the more discontent we are. But along with all the good things that we will see in 2100, there will also be problems, like heavy traffic, medical maladies, and problems with neighboring nations. But in general, Israel will do well in an insane world, certainly when it comes to the Middle East."
