It's hard to overstate the significance of the escape of six Palestinian inmates from Gilboa Prison last week. Not only in terms of the failure itself, which left the Israel Prison Service exposed, but also in terms of the main concern, which is the ramifications of the event, which grow more serious the more time passes.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
There are too many possible scenarios to count, and they entail a lot of unknowns and question marks, some of which depend on how Israel conducts itself. The speed with which all six terrorists are captured, [four were apprehended on Friday] and the way in which it happens will affect what takes place on the street. Events in the security prisoner wings of Israel's prisons will also play a part, as will the manner in which various terrorist groups try to exploit the situation, and the dynamic that creates.
The only surprise of the prison break itself and the horrifying malfunction it revealed is the fact that we were surprised. Anyone who has been in on stories from security prisons in recent years should have realized that something was very rotten there, from the prisoners' absolute control over their lives and in effect what happens at the prisons, to the IPS' organizational inefficacy, which includes appointing inappropriate candidates to inappropriate roles, dismissing regulations, and an ingrained culture of whitewashing, concealing, and evading criticism – both internal and external.
This is why the criticism a few MKs rushed to voice about the current government is also laughable. The public security minister is certainly responsible for everything that happens under the auspices of his ministry. It is very troubling, for example, to see how helpless the ministry is in handling the growing crime in the Arab sector. But the failures of the IPS that have just been exposed have existed for years, and involve more than a few ministries and ministers. Everyone responsible for the problematic appointments, for turning a blind eye and the culture of "trust me" should be asking him or herself what role they played in the fiasco. Some suggested a parliamentary committee of inquiry into the IPS. An investigation is needed, but not a parliamentary one, which would turn into a blame game circus between the coalition and the opposition and do very little good. What we need is a government investigative committee headed by a Supreme Court justice and a team of professionals. This needs to be a committee that will thoroughly probe everything: the structure of the IPS; how well it is equipped to carry out its tasks; its budget; the quality of its personnel; its senior directors and their conduct; and its deeply rooted culture, which borders on anarchy.
The responsibility for some of these issues lies not with the IPS itself, but rather with the government. This goes double for the role reversal in the facilities that house security prisoners. Rather than Israel making the rules and controlling them, it's the prisoners who are in charge. This stems from a constant fear of chaos, lest the prisoners rebel, go on hunger strikes, or start rioting, all of which could spill over into the Palestinian street and get them riled up, as well.
This is a limp-wristed approach everyone has known about for years. The last person who was brave enough to try and grapple with it was former Public Security Minister (now Israel's ambassador to the UN) Gilad Erdan, but even he backed down given a reality that preferred keeping things quiet to finding clear, long-term solutions.
The result was security prisoners who constantly and easily extort privileged conditions and benefits, knowing that they could do so and Israel feared any confrontation. Food? They cook for themselves. Separating the members of various terrorist groups? Sure. Scrambling cellphone service? No way. Academic studies? By all means.
Keep the prisoners calm
Now the IPS is trying to fix what's broken by breaking something else. It is trying to force the recovery of the massive damage done by the prison break and the respect it lost along with the prisoners. In the last few days, it has strong-armed a separation between prisoners, changes to the prisons, switches to wings and cells – all of which were right, but came at the worst possible time. The initial result could be seen as early as Wednesday, when riots erupted at a few prisons in which some prison cells were set on fire. These could continue or worsen, and might wind up harming prison guards or prison inmates, which would only make the cycle of violence spin faster.
So with all due respect to the IPS' trampled honor, right now the security prisoners need to be calmed down. The atmosphere was already about to explode, and we don't need to put a match to the tinder and start a massive fire. The time will come to correct what is wrong, but it should happen only after the security incident is over. Any overly harsh moves before that could have widespread ramifications.
This is because the issue of the security prisoners – more than any other – has the potential to become destructive because of the total consensus about it among the Palestinian public. The issue carries more weight with them than politics, than economic matters, even more than the Temple Mount. There is almost no Palestinian family that doesn't have someone in prison or know someone in prison, or who isn't happy that the six prisoners broke out and Israel was humiliated.
Anarchy around every corner
This past year, Jenin has to a certain extent become an entity separate from the Palestinian Authority. This is especially true for the town's refugee camp. The PA and its security forces are afraid to go in. When they did a few weeks ago to seize vehicles that were in use despite being classed as non-roadworthy, a group of armed residents arrived at the local police station, opened fire, and took the cars back.
Every time the military goes into the Jenin area, it also encounters violence. Since the start of 2021, clashes with armed residents during arrest operations have resulted in six of them being killed, but Israel has decided not to let up. Outgoing GOC Central Command Maj. Gen. Tamir Yadai told Israel Hayom that the command's success in thwarting attempted terrorist attacks was two-pronged: superior intelligence and operational freedom. If one of those collapses, he said, Israel will see a sharp rise in attacks and attempted attacks.
Since the prison break, the IDF has been preparing for clashes in Jenin, the six prisoners' home court. Increased forces have been deployed to the area. Soldiers who returned after leave for Rosh Hashanah were informed that leave would be cancelled. Clashes could erupt during arrest operations, or merely from frustration or an imagined sense of victory among some of the terrorist handlers in the city.
To prevent that, Israel will need to coordinate with the PA at a high level. Jenin, again, is not fully under the PA's control, but close coordination would make it possible to contain events in northern Samaria and prevent them from spreading to the other parts of the West Bank. Over Rosh Hashanah there were violent incidents in both Ramallah and Hebron, but they are still under control. If there is a major uptick in violence, the IDF will need to deploy yet more forces and implement a complicated policy of using force to restore calm while not employing excessive force that results in casualties, which would only increase the unrest.
This is the standard dilemma in Judea and Samaria when it comes to every wave of violence and every protest since the Second Intifada. Israel tries, demonstrably, to provide economic aid and security to the West Bank to make sure it remains isolated from the Gaza Strip and can maintain as normal a routine as possible. This goes for both the Palestinian and Israeli residents.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
Jihad awaits
Judea and Samaria are only one headache in the complicated affair of the prison escape. Gaza isn't quiet, either, and the prison break has only agitated it. The Gazans have plenty of reasons to be angry – the last operation [in May] did not pay off as they expected. The Qatari money is coming in slowly, and under restrictions; cargo crossings open and close again; they are certainly not being allowed to build up their military capabilities continuously or intensively, or rebuild their economy; and negotiations about a long-term ceasefire agreement are stalled in Cairo over the sides' inability to reach a solution to the matter of Israel's captive civilians and fallen soldiers.
The group leading all this is Hamas. Thus far, it has tried to send signals to Israel using familiar tactics: arson balloons, border protests, rogue rockets fired by it's not clear who. Now Hamas might also try to grab onto the security prisoners issue. The escaped inmates are not affiliated with Hamas, but with its rival, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but Yahya Sinwar – a former security prisoner himself, who was released as part of the Schalit deal and is devoted with every fiber of his being to freeing his brothers – can't be expected to miss a party like this one.
The PIJ in Gaza is also waiting to see how the event develops. The organization suffered a major blow during Operation Guardian of the Walls, but still retains significant military capabilities. If it feels that this is a battle that serves its interests, it won't hesitate to act, mostly likely in the form of rocket fire. The IDF is already prepared for this eventuality and has bolstered air defenses in the western Negev and beyond.
But if Israel learned one lesson from Operation Guardian of the Walls, it's that attempts to isolate the West Bank from Gaza succeed only in part. Judea and Samaria has been relatively calm since the events of May, but the northern front is restive. Rockets have been fired from Lebanon, and in one case, from Syria. Because the PIJ's general command is based in Damascus, it's not impossible that it might throw its hat in the ring.
Worse is the danger posed by some players in the Arab Israeli sector. Guardian of the Walls served as a warning about the potential risk posed by a combination of illegal weapons, anarchy, and radical entities. The Shin Bet security agency failed to identify these processes and the Israel Police failed to provide a rapid, aggressive response, leading to many wounded and a sense of a rift that will take years to repair.
It's unclear if the prison break will light up the street. The prevailing opinion is that it won't, but caution is called for. This means stepped-up intelligence in the Shin Bet and, if necessary, deterrent actions, as well as an increased police presence, and most importantly, political and civil talks between Jewish and Arab leaders with the goal being to reach common ground that will serve as a base for action should things get out of control.
All this needs to happen today. The prison escape is an unusual event with unusual potential, so the response must be exceptional. There should have been a national security "war room" set up to coordinate all activity and arrive at recommendations for the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet, as well as a civilian version – possibly headed by mayors, who have already proven they have some influence over the population – to put together recommendations and course of action for the future.
A jerry-rigged country
The Gilboa Prison escape has potential for something else disturbing. It exposed Israel's ineptness, again. The IPS came off looking like a parody of incompetence. A person would rub their eyes in disbelief to see that this is how things are run in the "high-tech nation," which is also the strongest defense and security superpower for thousands of kilometers in every direction.
In other words, the IPS has seriously hurt Israel's deterrence, and showed it to be holding an empty hand. Forget for a moment the incredible intelligence and operational efforts put into capturing the six fugitives in the first place, and the attempts to recapture them now, with thousands of police officers, soldiers, and Shin Bet personnel who weren't allowed home for the holiday and are working around the clock.
This event is yet another glum lesson that Israel is a jerry-rigged country. In the dangerous, violent region in which we live, this is a very bad insight. It demands an immediate correction, as well as that the entire command chain of the IPS involved in the event, from the commissioner to the lowest-ranking guard, be held responsible – not in words, but by actions – directly or indirectly. If they are fired on the spot, it will be not only justified, it will be the start of an improvement. Late, but of unparalleled importance.
