In 2001, the organization al-Qaida struck a blow that shocked the world. In a series of coordinated terrorist attacks, unprecedented in nearly every aspect, the group managed to hit the US, the strongest superpower in the world, in its most vulnerable spot.
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Residents of the world were amazed to see how a small organization numbering only a few hundred or thousand members, located in far-off Afghanistan without any particularly impressive infrastructure, managed to organize such a destructive attack. In the years that have passed, al-Qaida has carried out other terrorist attacks in Madrid (2004) and London (2005).
But the American invasion of Afghanistan dealt the organization a harsh blow. Many of its people were killed or captured by the Americans. Cooperation between intelligence agencies worldwide made it difficult for terrorists from the group to operate freely, as they had done previously, and the scope of the attacks it perpetrated against the west gradually decreased.
But the most serious blow to al-Qaida came in 2011, when a team of US special forces killed its leader and founder Osama Bin Laden. His successor Ayman al-Zawahiri, served as a kind of spiritual authority, almost disconnected from what was happening in the field.
Local terrorist nests
For anyone unfamiliar with the organization's worldview, these serious hits appeared to comprise a total collapse of morale, but for the al-Qaida ideologues, it was merely an acceptable episode in a long, ongoing struggle.
Aviv Oreg, an expert on Islamist terrorist at the Institute of National Security Studies, says that "a few weeks after the Sept. 11 [2001] terrorist attacks, Bin Laden explained to a journalist from Al-Jazeera that as far as he was concerned, the attacks themselves were the goal because they ignited an Islamist war against the West; a war that would end, even if it went on for a long time, with Judgment Day and result in a victory for Islam."
From this perspective, it appears as if Bin Laden's plan worked. The US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, suffered heavy casualties and caused a rift between it and the Muslim world. Meanwhile, Islamist terrorist struck nearly everywhere in the world, causing extreme backlash in the west against Islam and Muslim immigrants.
In addition to fulfilling Bin Laden's vision, the organization he founded continued to change and adapt itself to the new reality.
"Since 2001 intelligence organization's capabilities to coordinate efforts, track terrorist operatives, and kill them have improved a lot," Oreg explains. "As a result, the west – the US in particular – dealt al-Qaida a major blow, but instead of crushing the organization, it shattered into pieces scattered all over the world, all of which preserve the spirit and thinking that Bin Laden presented after the 9/11 attacks.
"Al-Qaida served – first, through personal connections and later as inspiration – as a model for a variety of local groups in southeast Asia, on the Indian subcontinent, in Somalia, and maybe the biggest of them all, the Arabian Peninsula, where its people are active in Yemen and Saudi Arabia," Oreg continues.
The researcher is referring to the group Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which was behind the bloody, loathsome attack at the Bataclan nightclub in Paris in 2015. One of its leaders, Anwar al-Awlaki, is the subject of much western interest.
"Al-Awlaki is an interesting figure, who is a good representation of the change that al-Qaida has undergone," Oreg says. "He fled the US after he was discovered as the preacher at the mosque where the 9/11 terrorists prayed, and who thanks to his charisma and fluent English managed to recruit new members and serve as inspiration for thousands of radicalized youth in the west."
A one-man terrorist organization
The problem is that AQAP isn't alone. The Somali group A-Shabab carried out terrorist attacks in Kenya and trains thousands of jihadis at camps in Somalia; in Indonesia and the Philippines a few groups affiliated with al-Qaida planned a series of 9/11-style attacks against American targets; in Syria the Nusra Front – identified with al-Qaida – became a major player among the rebel forces for a time.
Another phenomenon Oreg warns about is "lone-wolf jihad": calls for Muslim youth who have been radicalized in the west to turn themselves into one-man terrorist organizations and plan shooting, car-ramming, or stabbing attacks and carry them out on their own, without assistance from other groups.
Oreg thinks that in addition to the new "independent jihadi" weapon, al-Qaida or groups that follow its path will search out places where a vacuum of power has been created, such as Libya or Yemen, to use as new centers of terrorism. From there, they will be able to continue the twisted vision of the group's founder to wage a final war against the west and anything non-Islamic, until Judgment Day comes.
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