From an appearance and visibility perspective, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's visit to Washington was a success. It seems he indeed managed to forge a personal connection with President Joe Biden and open a new page in US-Israel relations under the Democratic administration.
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However, in terms of the essence of the visit, numerous and quite possibly critical questions remain. Beyond the administration's diplomatic intentions, particularly in relation to reopening a Palestinian consulate in east Jerusalem, the monumental issue at hand remains what the US position will be if or when Israel is forced to take action against Iran.
It appears this decision is fast approaching: The Iranians are enriching uranium to 60% purity, at which point the path to a nuclear bomb is short. Under the extremist regime of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, it's hard to envision a situation where the Iranians agree to return to the original 2015 nuclear deal, despite the far-reaching concessions made by the Americans.
It's important to note that the Iranian regime cannot suffice with "threshold" capabilities, or in other words, simply having the ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon within a short time frame, rather, from its point of view, it must actually possess such a weapon. This need reflects the regime's fear of meeting the same fate as Muammar Gaddafi in Libya or Saddam Hussein in Iraq, two dictators who lost their military nuclear programs, and its desire to rather mimic the regime of Kim Jong Un, the North Korean tyrant who hasn't surrendered his nuclear program and has remained in power. However, in addition to survival, the bomb is essential to the prestige of the Iranian regime and the justification of its existence. It's intolerable, the ayatollahs say, that the Indians, Pakistanis and Jews have a nuclear bomb while the Islamic republic does not.
It's safe to assume that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the security advisers surrounding him have seen the images from Afghanistan and concluded that an American military response is nothing to be feared. The lack of an American reprisal following the missile fire on US bases in Iraq, carried out by pro-Iranian militias, only bolsters this conclusion.
In Tehran, although officials also undoubtedly took note of the warning issued after the meeting between the Israeli prime minister and US president, whereby "other options" regarding Iran were still on the table – they certainly must have noticed that the warning didn't include the customary "all options" on the table. We can surmise that the Iranians believe the American administration will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from launching a war that could envelop the US.
In the same context, the supreme leader and his advisers are surely watching Israel and its eclectic new government, and have likely concluded that it will struggle to make the necessary war-time decisions.
According to one possible scenario, the Iranians will continue enriching uranium and manufacturing the additional components required for a nuclear bomb and will reach the point of no return over the winter months. This would be the ideal time due to possible severe weather conditions that could impede and perhaps even neutralize the Israeli Air Force. Another consideration is the possibility of deterring Israel with a massive missile barrage by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups, without caring too much about an Israeli response against Lebanon.
Contrary to the widespread view among Israeli pundits that the humanitarian disaster in Lebanon limits Hezbollah's ability to attack Israel, the current crisis is actually deterring Israel from harming or attacking Lebanon in response to Hezbollah fire. The world will not sit idly by as Israel exacerbates, through a military campaign, the suffering of the Lebanese people whose situation is already dire.
In light of this scenario, it was very important to hear a public commitment of support from the US president for Israel's right to defend itself against any regional threat. Behind closed doors, it was crucial to hear how the US can enhance our ability to defend ourselves. This can be done by giving Israel military capabilities the US has thus far withheld from us, to other understandings. For example, will the US be willing to grant us military, logistical, diplomatic and even legal aid during a war with Iran?
Granting such understandings could be an appropriate return for Bennett's promise not to publicly criticize the 2015 nuclear deal.
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Bennet's commitment, although welcome politically, could come back to bite us diplomatically and maybe even militarily. If Israel is forced to act against the Iranian threat, it is critically important that we start building our case on the international front, and the sooner the better.
It is perhaps just as vital as the military preparations for such an operation, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi recently said, to establish our justification as much as possible. Immediate action is imperative; winter is fast approaching.
