Afghanistan's recent developments are shaping not only regional but world politics.
The Taliban has taken over the whole land and has not faced any resistance from the Afghan Army. It seems that the Afghan Army supported the Taliban coup by surrendering.
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Twenty years and a trillion dollars did not hold back the Afghan Taliban from Kabul.
Right now everyone is observing the situation in Afghanistan even though the Taliban has announced immunity for all and even once in a while they are assuring women's rights too. Yet their serious track record fails to support their recent claims.
One also is hearing an unpopular argument or refrain too that "these are Taliban 2.0".
The matter of fact is, that this is a whole new generation who know that the world has changed in the last twenty years. They even admit that mistakes were made the last time they tried to rule Afghanistan.
Pakistan is especially being blamed by the Americans for playing a double game these last years., Pakistan is the country that will gain the most from recent developments.
The end of Indian Influence in Afghanistan, which means that Pakistan, will be able to stabilize Balochistan's insurgency in which India has been said to be backing.
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): These terrorist groups have caused more than seventy thousand casualties within Pakistan. They are responsible for hundreds of terrorist attacks, after a military operation by the Pakistan Army, they were hiding inside Afghanistan and operating from there from time to time. Now the Taliban have announced that they will not let anyone operate against any country on Afghan soil.
Trade: Landlocked Afghanistan has always been a great source of trade especially for people who live in the bordering areas. In addition, it is also a gateway for Pakistan to Central Asian countries.
United States' Presence: It was not considered positive by all the countries surrounding Afghanistan. Pakistan has also been considered a challenging situation concerning both China and India. In the case of Chine, the CPEC is considered to be a valuable project by Pakistan yet it was not liked by the United States. Since the United States is no longer physically present in the region, once again the chances of Pakistan becoming a useful friend for the United States increase as it is the only democratic country bordering Afghanistan.
The Western Border: After many years, Pakistan has become comfortable with its western border, which has been difficult to manage along with its eastern "semi-hot" border with India. Since there is now an established fence on this border coupled with the Kabul government which is not anti-Pakistan I there is a sense of relief.
Nevertheless, Pakistan has its challenges for what lies ahead, and maybe surprising, the biggest is not the extremists inside the country rather that there are two countries with revolutionary models living next door.
Iran is observing the situation with calm, except for the asylum of commander Ismail and a few border-security soldiers, who failed to mount any action against the Taliban coup. In the last two decades, America brought the common enemy of the Taliban and Iran closer together. Indeed, this time the Taliban have even shown respect to the Afghan Shias during Muharram and they even provided their processions with security.
Meanwhile, China has emerged as a key power player concerning recent developments. China has swiftly replaced the United States in Afghanistan., We can feel the moves of the dragon dance in the mountains of Afghanistan.
China's biggest interest in Afghanistan must be brought in line with the trade trail. However, the biggest concern is the exportation of terrorism from Afghanistan to China's Xinjiang province. By China engaging the Taliban with trade and diplomacy, it not only addressed its biggest concern but also paves its path to Iran who has essentially been out of its "One Belt One Road" program. On the other hand, the Taliban needs not only legitimacy but also backing by world powers. Who is better than China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council?
While the world is concerned about the security of the common people in Afghanistan, especially women and minorities' rights, the Taliban are looking to bring an inclusive political setup. That is why they have not announced the head of their government and its structure to date. Anas Haqqani has begun to meet with Afghan political leadership. It looks like the Taliban are seeking a broad base of political consultation, which of course is very much needed for their legitimacy.
Corruption has been the finding after this whole episode: no nation-building, no army, no political structure. Only now does President Biden mention in his presidential press conference that the quick collapse of the Afghan government and the army was a surprise. Let me add that, it was only (only?) shocking for them who were providing the Afghans with equipment, training, resources, and finances for these last twenty years.
While no protest took place when the Taliban took over, it was only when they tried to replace the flag of Afghanistan that crowds came out into the streets protesting and demanding their national flag, which embodies and signifies that there is no connection between past Afghan leadership and its common people who are not "owned" by them. This is one of the core reasons which gave the Taliban this opportunity.
Afghanistan has always been considered to have a special strategic depth by Pakistan. Yet it can also have a strategic depth for Iran as well. Nondemocratic Iran will come closer to the Taliban's Afghanistan by not threatening them with its allies inside Afghanistan. In the future, these ties could grow even stronger by providing oil and other things especially if the world were to place sanctions on Afghanistan.
Recent Kabul blasts registered the strong presence of ISIS in Afghanistan, where Al-Qaida already exists and we have no proof of its complete eradication. In the coming days, ISIS will be an emerging challenge, not only for this region but the world too. Afghanistan is a different territory than Iraq and Syria, with a completely different background of the situation for the last four decades. There is a significant potential that ISIS will find a fertile recruiting pipeline of already existing terrorist groups in the region, which will make the situation more complicated.
ISIS and Al-Qaida both had an international agenda but ISIS has an edge of implementing it in some parts of Iraq and Syria, also they are more known for their Anti - Shia stance which has a high potential to be exploited in their favor by the leadership.
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Iran is a Shia dominant country in the neighborhood and anti-Shia elements in the region.
Security is no more just a matter of guns and fight but now the major security paradigm shifted to technology and cyberspace, Israel is the country that can help the countries of the region which tech and cyber security.
Israel must be looking into the situation closely. Perhaps it is contemplating expanding its friendship in the region. Riyadh and Islamabad could be the next cities in which to sign off on the Abrahamic Accord or a treaty of normalization. On account of the dramatic American policy change in the region and Iranian engagements, this provides China with a unique opportunity to draw closer to Israel and it should not be a surprise if China were to facilitate Pakistan - Israel Normalization.
Peer Mudassir is a Pakistan-based Sufi Leader and head of a think tank. He can be followed on Twitter @peermudassir
