President Hassan Rouhani is set to end his term in office after eight years in which the ayatollah regime faced some of the greatest challenges it has ever known. As Iranians head to the polls to decide who will be their next president, let us take a look back at Rouhani's legacy.
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Known for his ability to negotiate deals with Western states, Rouhani was seen as a moderate and pragmatic reformist when he was elected Iran's president in 2013. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the other religious figures that hold the real power behind the scenes saw him as someone they could rely on to represent the values of the regime to millions of supporters of the reformist camp, including liberals who hoped for greater political and religious freedom. Following Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's two terms as president, Rouhani's candidacy gave many in Iran hope.
With the public's support, Rouhani focused his efforts on negotiating a nuclear deal with US President Barak Obama's administration that would inject billions of dollars into Iran while also implementing reforms aimed at kick-starting the country's economy. With the help of Iran's magnetic Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif, Rouhani's administration succeeded in reaching a deal with the world powers in two years. The accord was expected to allow Iran to further integrate into the international community. In Tehran, the masses took to the streets to celebrate Rouhani's election victory.
Yet the optimism that characterized Rouhani's first years in office began to fade in 2016 when Donald Trump was elected US president. By 2018, Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the nuclear accord, alongside Iran's increasing involvement in proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya, made the regime's previous diplomatic achievements something of a distant memory at a time when the country was facing increasing international isolation.
The tsunami of sanctions Washington imposed on Iran sent its economy into a tailspin. Economic reforms necessary to free up the market, which suffered from over-regulation and a lack of competition, were pushed off as the regime increased its suffocating economic oversight. Basic items such as meat, fruit, and cleaning materials either disappeared from the market or were sold at exorbitant prices. Public anger was quick to follow.
The public takes to the streets
In December 2019, protests over the cost of living erupted in the Arab-majority city of Ahvaz in the country's south. What began as peaceful demonstrations turned violent when members of the Revolutionary Guards' bloodthirsty Basij militia tasked with overseeing public security in the state used live fire on protesters. The protests quickly spread to strongholds of various ethnic groups who felt excluded by the regime.
While Rouhani's office tried to prevent the violent suppression of the protests, the president was unable to quell the public anger. The Kurds, the Azeris, and the Balochs rioted and set hundreds of government buildings on fire. Soon enough, the demonstrations reached Tehran. There, young educated Iranians who had hoped for a brighter economic and political future began to join in the demonstrations. The regime's violent response left more than 200 protesters dead, 7,000 arrested, and unprecedented destruction. Attacking police headquarters, government-owned banks, and welfare offices, the protesters made their feelings toward the government clear.
The violent suppression of the protests made clear to proponents of democracy and reform that they had no part to play in the regime's institutionalized system. At the same time, the US exit from the nuclear accord and the assassination of Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimaini in 2020 brought many Iranians over to the conservative camp.
More than anything, Rouhani's helplessness in the face of increasing interference by Iran's supreme leader and Rouhani's frustration with Khamenei's increasingly hawkish policy led many in the country to view the Iranian president as a figurehead of sorts whose powers as head of the executive branch were frequently expropriated.
Above all else, eight years of Rouhani have left the reformist camp that brought him to power in tatters. Large portions of the country's population are expected to boycott the presidential elections, as they did in the parliamentary elections of 2019. With the conservative camp leading the regime and no counterbalance to be found, large protests and maybe even an uprising are only a matter of time.
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